Southwell 4/1/09

[fintron]

1.40 Southwell Ten are set to go to post for this seller over seven furlongs and course and distance specialist Elusive Warrior is among the line up. This horse let me down when I last backed him, on my birthday back in November, but he wasn't helped by a delayed start that day as a horse ran loose at on the track, they all got agitated in the stalls, and in the end there was no shame in his third placed finish as the winner, Smarty Socks, proved to be very well in under a penalty and has won since and the second, Whitbarrow, has been made favourite for two of his subsequent runs and has ran with credit in handicaps. Cheekpieces (worn for all of career wins) were missing that day but are back on for tomorrows race, which is another plus. Alan McCabe does well at this track and his gelding certainly relishes this course and distance with six of his seven career victories coming over CD. The last time he managed to get his head infront was back in October when he made all to win a handicap by 4 lengths from Crocodile Bay. He was running off 65 that day and is currently rated just 1 lb higher than that after failing to win in five subsequent starts. However, I think he deserves his rating and as a result he looks to be running off a decent weight here based on official BHA ratings. He is best in on adjusted ratings and he gets on well with jockey James Doyle - both of his last wins have come with him in the saddle. With regards to the opposition, Richard Fahey's Tender Process has only recently dropped to plating level from handicaps and was a handicap winner off an 8 lb lower mark in November over this trip at Wolverhampton. He seemed to handle the surface well enough when 3rd of 11 here in May 2007, but he may not be worth every pound of his official rating and thus may struggle running off level weights with Elusive Warrior. Vogarth won an amaterus handicap off a rating 4 lbs lower than his current one as recently as November, but he has something to prove after two below par efforts in handicaps in his last two. Course and distance are known to suit though. Cap St Jean has a poor win rate of just 1/26 starts and has a little to prove based on recent runs. The fact connections put a 7 lb claimer on board tomorrow suggests to me that they feel he is up against it on these terms otherwise and he's been competing in this grade of late to no avail. Did finish 3rd to Elusive Warrior a couple of starts back but far from certain to reverse the form here. Fish Called Johnny is another with a poor win rate (2/27), and he's been running off just 48 in handicaps and making little impact, including at this track over shorter. He is 15 lbs worse off with Elusive Warrior compared to if this were a handicap (10 lbs if you include Slade O'Hara's claim). Government won a classifed stakes race a year ago rated 45 and he's rated 4 lbs lower now after failing to win since. He led for part of the way over a mile here on New Years Day before fading away to finish 20 lengths behind Mrs Bun and he is another who would need to put in a world beating effort to win here, 20 lbs wrong with Elusive Warrior. Sion Hill probably ranks as one of the possible dangers, as John Harris' gelding finished a fair third in a Wolverhampton handicap last time out. He drops 1 lb here but still has 9 lbs to find with Elusive Warrior. However, he does have course and distance winning form and is well drawn to attack. Possible each-way claims perhaps. Arrabiata is rated jsut 38 and is looking to win here first race in ten starts. Some horses just aren't cut out for racing, and this looks one of them. Swallow Senora is another merely making up numbers. Has failed to win a race in 28 starts and is rated 35. He's one and a half stone worse off with Elusive Warrior compared to if there were a handicap and I'll eat my underpants if he goes and wins this. Lonsdale Lad was last home of nine on his last start over CD in December. Another that is winless, this time after 7 starts, and the comments from the above two runners apply for this one also. All in all Elusive Warrior is a confident pick in a race easier than the last few he has contested. Sion Hill is taken to chase him home for forecast purposes.

[PL2008]

Re: Southwell 4/1/09 Don Pele (IRE) 12:40 Southwell Trained by R Harris. 252342 is Harris' form here entering the day - 223 from 6f runners. Jockey K Ghunowa was booked for all 6f runs and he is booked for Don Pele. Beaten a short head from his last visit here on 19Dec08. Today is his second career start here. 10pts to win Halaak (USA) 15:40 Southwell Jockey Greg Fairley has 4 wins from his last 8 rides. Halaak is his only scheduled ride for today. Halaak won LTO, Fairley on board, by 2 1/2 lengths. That was with blinkers on for the first time and it stays on for today. 10pts to win Lois Darlin (IRE) 15:40 Southwell Fourth start for trainer R Harris. Three runs last month should only make her better. Her last two were in Class 5s and dropped into a 6 today. She looks to be the best front runner for today and may have enough to last in this Class. 252342 is Harris' form here entering the day - 223 from 6f runners. Jockey K Ghunowa was booked for all 6f runs and he is booked for Lois Darlin. She's also the only runner dropped in the Class for this race. 5pts ew