Wolverhampton 2/1/09

[fintron]

7.20 Wolverhampton Hold The Bucks looks the bet of the night in this claimer over nine furlongs. Luke Morris' mount looks well treated at the weights and apart from Madison Belle, would be conceding much more to his rivals in a handicap. Even then, he is only 1 lb wrong with the last named, and given that Karl Burke's runner has a little to prove at present after solid beatings in nurseries in her last two you could go as far as saying Madison Belle is a little high in the handicap for now anyway. Hold The Bucks looks to have many things in his favour other than his weight. He gets on well this this jockey, who partnered him to success at the beginning of last month over course and distance in a nursery when he was rated 63. As a consequence I think he is deserving of his 67 rating, especially since he ran credibly off 67 in a Great Leighs nursery last time out. He finished 4th of 10 but had every chance inside the final furlong but found the trip stretched him a little too much. Dropping back down to a distance at which he is proven tonight could prove the catalyst to another success. With this being a claimer, the market will prove informative of his chances as ever, but I think he holds the strongest claims on the form book.

[fintron]

Re: Wolverhampton 2/1/09 7.50 Wolverhampton Mister New York - has stamina to prove, has won up to 8f before, previous course winner, 5 lb above last win, which came in this grade, and drops in class from last outing at GL in a competitive race. Hold up horse so draw (8) unlikely to be an issue. Just Bond - goes well around here and has won over both the extended mile and 1m 1f 103 yd so trip shouldn't be an issue. Only 4 lbs higher than last win, which came in this grade at Haydock, but not been capitalising off similar marks on recent runs, including over CD. Has shown little bits of late and likely to go in again at some point, but others more reliable. January - Irish raider that make a worthwhile journey in mid-December when landing a maiden here over CD. Won comfortably that day by 5 lengths from a 69-rated winner, but didn't beat much that day at all. Rated 82 for handicap debut and the 9/4 fav. Fifty Cents - yet to win in three runs since landing Haydock maiden in May last year. Hasn't been disgraced in handicaps off 80-82 and rated 82 here, but may possibly need to drop a couple of pounds to get his head infront. Must prove he acts on this surface and returning from a lengthy absence. Harald Bluetooth - former James Fanshawe inmate that made a winning handicap debut at Newbury off 78 to follow up a win in a Newmarket maiden on his run prior to that. had Godolphin's Meydan City behind at HQ (won a conditions race rated 90 subsequently), but that maiden looked a little bit substandard for the course IMO. Form of his handicap win is okay, had Paraguay, who has won in handicaps off 71, back in second and Mister Hitchens, 4th, went on to land a hat-trick subsequently, with the latest coming off 82. Harald Bluetooth is similarly rated 82 here, but he has a 153-day absence to overcome. Direct Debit - course and distance winner in a claimer in November which followed up a decent effort in a handicap on previous run under todays rider (btn 1 length off 77 in this grade). Only 1 lb higher today, although hardly ripped up any trees when last seen and finishing 6th of 9 over CD and behind Just Bond on first run for new trainer. Wisdom's Kiss - James Bethell's horse was a course and distance winner in May and has showed subsequent improvement to win off 68 here over shorter in a handicap in August. He started from a poor draw two runs ago but almost collared Alexander Hurricane when second here, but from stall 12 again last time out he was always in the rear, and without a clear run, failed to land a blow. Although he is well drawn tonight, he does have a little to prove after that last effort. Xtra Torrential - competed in a couple of listed races several years ago after winning on his debut in a York maiden in 2004. Has never won in handicap company and hasn't had much racing for a horse of his age. Last win came two years ago when won a conditions race rated 90. Proven on the surface and a course and distance winner but seems a little troublesome and maybe best swerved. Randama Bay - Made all to win a Kempton handicap in November but poorly drawn to do so again tonight. 5 lbs higher than that win and up in class now. Last run came in a conditions race and he was always going to be up against it at the weights running against the likes of Banknote, Philario and Orchard Supreme, who are all rated much higher. Run prior to that came in an amateurs handicap here, and didn't see out the trip though, so opposable on the grounds he's yet to stay this far and because of poor draw. Lets Get Cracking - CD winner in a maiden back in October '06 and has been mainly campaigned over jumps since. Recent outings have seen him beaten soundly, including by the promising Punchestowns at Uttoxeter in March. Another with fitness to prove who doesn't looks straightforward as he looks to break his handicap duck off 71 at 50/1. Verdict The grading of the race lured me in to study but it seems poor for a class 4 event where you usually find a few better horses than this. As top-weight, Mister New York warrants respect and although he has to prove he stays this extra furlong, he is probably worth a gamble in a race lacking strength in depth as he made a little bit of headway 1f last time out in a race much more competitive than this. There could be more to come from the favourite but the form of the maiden he won hardly gets the pulse racing and most of the others have multiple questions to answer. 9/2 Bet 365 EW