Meladee's strategy!

[meladee]

Hello fellow punters, I will start off with a little introduction about myself. I may seem to be new in this forum, but no, I’m not. I am sure most of you here are from Europe or anywhere except Asia. However, I am an Asian and I’ve been observing you people in terms of selection and reasoning. Fair enough, all reasoning is strong and firm but not the selection. Alright enough say, let’s begin with Meladee’s Punting Strategy. I will be covering on “Heavy boat Theoryâ€, “Bookies’ Position†and “Dramatic EPLâ€. Heavy Boat Theory This is a very simple theory. It is very well known in Asia, South East Asia I must say. Basically, it’s saying that the heavier the boat is, the easier it will sink. Alright fellow punters, let’s put trace all the way back to Arsenal against Man Utd. Let’s see what happen to Arsenal before the clash of the Titans. Arsenal draws against Spurs (which was in a pathetic state) in a London Derby and lose to a Stoke (a promoted team, holy crap!). I mean, oh my god, Arsenal is in Crisis! Eduardo and Tomas Rosicky remain long-term absentees, while Emmanuel Adebayor (ankle) and Emmanuel Eboue (knee) are definitely out. Dutch striker Robin van Persie is suspended, meaning the Frenchman (Arsene Wenger) is likely to deploy Nicklas Bendtner in a lone striking role or partner the Dane with youngster Carlos Vela. And most punters’ Reaction: “What!? Arsenal is in deep shit man, without much firing power and such young defence, Man Utd will definitely to steal point against Arsenal at this moment. Worst result would be a draw man, but how could that be possible? Let’s go for Asian Handicap, Man Utd -0.25 or -0.5 for better oddsâ€. Now at this moment, most of the punters will back their money on the Red Devil. Can the boat sustain such large number of passenger? Well, even Titanic sank. Did you put your money on Man Utd? Yes you did. You backed your money on Chelsea against Arsenal too right? (Result Arsenal 2-1 Man Utd) (Result Chelsea 1-2 Arsenal) It is not very applicable if you simply choose to use the Heavy Boat theory alone. Just be careful when making selection. Bookies’ Position Now fellow punters, you’re still not convinced yet? Remember, punting is never fair, especially to punters (I’m talking about Asian handicap odds here) but we still wage a war against bookie with our only weapon, money. I love this sentence, quoted from punter allthethings, “bears repeating that bookies don't set a line based on the strength of the teams, but on the public's perception of the strength of the teams. This is important always to keep in mind.†Now let me give an example on Spurs against Arsenal game. The value on 1x2 will be favouring on Arsenal and the Asian Handicap would be -1 for Arsenal. Just when you thought the bookies are siding with you. They are merely using the public’s perception to set the value, so that they won’t lose big but instead win big from the punters like you. So let’s say out of 1000 punters, 800 chose Arsenal to win and Arsenal -1 and 200 chose Spurs +1 and Spurs to win or maybe some on draw. IF you are the bookie, will you let the 800 punters on Arsenal and 200 punters on spurs to win prevail? Is Tottenham Hotspurs sponsor called Mansion? Opps, did I mention anything? Always put yourself into bookies position for better view of selection. Dramatic EPL Why did I say dramatic? Let me begin by mentioning all the drama that had happened in EPL so far this season. First, Tottenham start of the season very poor and when it comes to London Derby while trailing 2-4 against one of the Top Giant, Arsenal, they manage to make it a 4-4 draw in only 2 minutes. It shattered many punters’ hope eh. Next drama, Arsenal drew during London Derby which they should have won it and lost to Stoke the next match. Not forgetting a draw at home against Fenerbache when they trashed them 2-5 at away. At the same time, Arsenal was facing crisis and they are facing Man Utd the next game! But what was the result when everyone expects Man Utd to sneak point? You jolly well know the result. What’s more? When everyone is mentioning Chelsea 89 home run unbeaten record, they actually lost it at home against Liverpool! Did you expect a home win or a draw to make it 90 home run unbeaten record? What did you do? Backing your money on double chance, Home win or draw or Chelsea -0.25 and -0.5? Well sorry men, the drama made it clear that Chelsea record stop that night. Well well well, what do we have here? Did I hear the commentator saying that Rooney is still stuck on his 99th goal in the Man Utd? Berbatov took his shot, missed. Ronaldo tried on his free kick, missed. Rooney in the penalty area and what, he scored! What a hint by the commentator and what a drama. The result ended up Man City 0-1 Man Utd, and Wayne Rooney the only goal scorer. Joe Cole openly criticized Arsenal and taunted Arsenal, “Show us your trophies, not your pretty football.†Well, Joe Cole is right in general but let’s looks it in a dramatic point of view. Ronaldo did the opposite of Joe Cole and regard Arsenal as a threat. Despite on the guard, the defending champion lost the game. Who is Joe Cole compared to Ronaldo? Get what I mean? So what’s the result being off guard? The result is Chelsea 1-2 Arsenal. Just take note of some drama happening in EPL, it might affect your selection. Conclusion Well, I’m trying to tell every punter that you should be extra careful when making any selection. What ever reasoning you gave can be very convincing but your selection can be weak and might be a trap set by the bookies. The above strategy or advise I should say, are guides that how you should make your selection. Anyway, the choice is yours, the advise is mine. I hope it will make punting much better for you. PS: I am pretty open for correction; I hope you guys will correct me. I might post some selections here to try out the strategy. Kick racism out of football! Good luck to all punter. :ok :cheers :cow

[meladee]

Liverpool vs WestHam Very interesting match I must say. With Chelsea dropping points against Arsenal. Liverpool willl spare no mercy in snatching any points in their way now. A summarize preview, Liverpool will be missing out Torres but welcoming Gerrard back from UEFA CL rest. Westham last win against Liverpool was in 1963. Bellamy will return to Anfield but this time will be playing against his former club, Liverpool. Heavy Boat Theory If you have read about this theory, you will understand how it works. According to Asianbookie.com statistic, 71% of the punters are on Liverpool -1.5. In other words, Liverpool to win by 2 goals and the remaining 29% on WestHam -1.5 and what they are looking for is a draw against Liverpool. Bookies' position The value for Liverpool is at 2.05 and WestHam at 1.85. Fair enough as we are omitting draw in the equation. For 1x2, Liverpool: 1.35, Draw: 4.8, WestHam:10.48. Now we see the difference. Remember that the odds are set by our perception by the bookie. Will bookie allow 71% prevail? We shall see. Dramatic EPL So, did i mention about Westham not winning Liverpool since 1963? Without Torres, will Robbie Keane make a difference for Liverpool tonight? Bellamy will be returning to Anfield to play against his former club. Benitez praised Bellamy skills but yet he sold him. How ironic. WestHam insisted that Tevez trauma is not affecting the team. How sure can they be? Zola said: ""As far as I'm concerned I know the club is strong enough to deal with it and the players and manager are not concerned about it." Verdict Westham +1.75 if you wish to avoid "Titanic" and for safer bet. Both Fulham, Aston Villa and Newcastle are able to draw against the Giants. When the rest can do so? Why not Westham? I predict that Liverpool will only win by 1 goal margin at most. 0-0,1-0, or 2-1. Worst result you will see is 2-0 or 3-0. Good luck fellow punters. :hope Result Liverpool 0-0 WestHam. Good start I must say, hopefully I will be consistent enough to keep my profit warm.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Hey meladee, I enjoyed reading that and agree with quite a bit of what you're saying. Good luck with this strategy:ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Nice start:ok

[1907zico]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Very nice one, had a nice reading as well. A lot of things are true though, although the problem is well known. The real problem in my eyes is to find out when avoid the "Titanic" - that is really what it is all about. I will follow this with great interest and I am excited how you will find the right balance :hope

[friera]

Re: Meladee's strategy! hi meladee, its kinda obvious you are from singapore. too

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Burnley vs Arsenal We will be expecting Burnely to entertain Arsene Wenger boys tonight. We jolly well know the standard of these young boys, from Sheffield United to Wigan, they have never once disappoint Arsene Wenger. Wenger himself also has high hope on these young lads. A short summary for today's match. Young guns are set to for Arsenal against Burnley. Burnley had won Chelsea away. Burnley had lost once to Arsenal 0-2 but they have improved alot since then. HeavyBoat Theory I somehow have this feeling that this theory doesn't work on Burnley and Arsenal game, but instead on Stoke and Derby. The statistic is 86% on Arsenal and 14% on Burnley if you wish to know (Source from asianbookie.com). But that's the stats for Arsenal -3/4. Bookies' position Let's take a look at the value for Asian Handicap. Both are at 1.95 at -3/4 and for 1x2, Arsenal at 1.73, Burnley at 4.53 and Draw at 3.55. The odds were rather different from what we saw last game where Liverpool and Westham odds are so far apart. The odds shows that Burnley also have a slight chance of winning the game. Please bear this in mind, the handicap is -0.75. Will the bookies allow the 86% to win full or win half or perhaps let 14% to prevail? We do not know until the result. Dramatic Carling Cup Chelsea seems to be the hot favourite during the game against Burnley and least expected, Burnley draw the game and win the penalty. So the drama on Chelsea being poor at home continues. Now what's the hot topic on today's match? The young Welshman from Arsenal, Aaron Ramsey. Just like to Rooney during Mancity against Man Utd. I'm going to expect this drama to happen again tonight. "I want to make myself an established first team player for Arsenal. I am quite an ambitious person, so I have always had high expectations.'' Said the young Welshman. Verdict I'm expecting the Rooney drama to happen again but this time is Aaron Ramsey. I'm backing Arsenal -0.5 despite the heavyboat theory and also expecting Arsenal to only score 1 goal. Remember the handicap is -0.75 and now you understand? 84% will generally reduce to 42% and perhaps the bookie could use the winning on Liverpool to cover up the lost. :ok Correct score 1-2 or 0-1. Worst result you will see is a draw. Good luck fellow punters. :hope :cheers

[friskyfitz]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Nice start but can you please AVOID editing posts after the result just so as to stop any possible problems that may arise with questioning the analysis :ok

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy!

hi meladee' date=' its kinda obvious you are from singapore. too[/quote'] Hey, yup i am from Singapore. Are you? Btw, thanks for the reminder, I will avoid editting the post. Perhaps a new post and also help increase my posting :loon

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy!

hi meladee' date=' its kinda obvious you are from singapore. too[/quote'] Hey, yup i am from Singapore. Are you? Btw, thanks for the reminder, I will avoid editting the post. Perhaps a new post and also help increase my posting :loon

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Result Poor game I must say, Stoke boat was sank due to heavy boat but didn't really expect Arsenal to sank as well. Nice day for bookie. Hopefully coming matches would be better. Results: Burnley 2:0 Arsenal, Stoke 0:1 Derby.

[barrhead73]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Meladee , does this not highlight the fact that Cup games should always be avoided because your heavy boat theory is much more likely especially in the League Cup where the bigger teams will field weaker sides. Just a thought. I simply do not bet on any cup games anymore.

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy!

Meladee , does this not highlight the fact that Cup games should always be avoided because your heavy boat theory is much more likely especially in the League Cup where the bigger teams will field weaker sides. Just a thought. I simply do not bet on any cup games anymore.

Good point there barrhead73. The strategy is not so comprehensive, so i'm trying it out on Cup game to test it out. ;)

[RocknRolla]

Re: Meladee's strategy!

Good point there barrhead73. The strategy is not so comprehensive' date=' so i'm trying it out on Cup game to test it out. ;)[/quote'] Will you test it today?:unsure

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Watford vs Tottenham It has been quite awhile since Watford vs Tottenham in 2007. Tottenham gave a good run over Watford with a result of 3-1. Tonight, Tottenham boss Harry Redknapp prepares to face brother-in-law Frank Lampard Snr who was appointed football consultant to Rodgers last week. Both of them have barely trained on opposite teams. Tonight will be the showdown. Short Summary of tonight game, Redknapp is still without Jermaine Jenas (toe) and Luka Modric (groin) along with long-term absentees Alan Hutton (foot) and Giovani dos Santos (ankle), while captain Ledley King will be rested ahead of next Monday’s Premier League trip to West Ham. Goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes wants to use the Carling Cup to rebuild confidence after the defeat to Everton at the weekend. Rodgers said: "My objective is to be successful and to be walking out as a No 1 against the holders is incredible." Heavy Boat Theory Last night, I neglected the power of this theory and suffer a loss just because I am an Arsenal Fan :tongue2. Let's see what's the statistic tonight, 16% backing Watford and 84% on Tottenham. They are on AH -3/4 and this is exactly what happen last night. What will the bookie do again this time? Bookies' position Now the value again. Watford +3/4 at 2.025 and Tottenham -3/4 at 1.875. The public is going expecti Tottehnham to win by 2 goal at least. Fair enough as their last meeting ended with a 3-1 result. Now 1x2, Watford at 5.30, Tottenham at 1.63 and draw at 3.60. We do see a similarity between today and last night game. They have close odds and Watford has a slight chance to win the game too or perhaps a draw. Let's just say the bookie will never give up any chance of winning the punters. :spank Dramatic "Carling Cup" I must say English games are really dramatic. When we are expecting Arsenal youth to play their heart out with pressure. Burnley, well-known for kicking giant ass, kicked another giant ass again. Perhaps Man Utd will proceed and face burnley in Semi-Final and get their ass kicked if the drama is still on. But Man Utd is on HeavyBoat, we should skip this game;). The drama tonight will be the battle of brother-in-law. Frank Lampard Snr was appointed as a football consultant to Rodgers. Rodgers told Redknapp that he might play reserve team as they will be facing Birmingham next game which he consider it as important. Let's see who has more important games ahead. I said Tottenham, every single game is very important to Tottenham now. After they lost against everton, they are close to relegation zone again. “It will be a tough game but league points are all-important to us,” Redknapp said. “It’s the league position that is vital. "The long-term and most important thing at the club is the Premier League.” Both doesn't seems to be very concern about tonight game despite being the first show down between the two mangers. However, Rodgers seems to be more than ready. "It's a game that the majority of people would expect Tottenham to win. For us, though, it's a possibility to cause an upset and it happens quite a lot with the so-called smaller team."- Rodgers. Verdict I'm backing watford on +1 for safe bet. Fair enough Tottenham might win, but perhaps only a goal. Tonight, it's either Redknapp the magician or Frank Lampard Snr with Rodgers to Prevail. Seems like the magician is more convincing but I'm not going to board the heavy boat :loon Good luck fellow Punters:hope

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Result Watford 1-2 Tottenham. As much as I expected, Tottenham will win by a goal. A draw for me today. Like what i said, this strategy is not so comprehensive but I will keep trying. Especially on EPL.

[RocknRolla]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Your strategy on today's game in bundes liga..or not?

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy!

Your strategy on today's game in bundes liga..or not?

Erm, nope. Mainly on EPL.

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Man Utd vs Sunderland Last EPL game for tonight and probably catch the bookie eye as well. Man Utd was running pretty good lately after drawing Villareal away, well it's expected, and winning Mancity and Blackburn with their so called "reserved" team. Tonight, we will see how Sunderland be doing without Roy Keane, a former Man Utd player. Man Utd has been earning points despite playing for different cups or playing at home or away. Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool have gotten their 3 points. Will the big 4 earn their points tonight or as usual, 1 of them will perish. HeavyBoat theory Short run here, 69% on Man Utd and 31 on Sunderland. I say it's close but still consider heavy for Man Utd. The handicap is -2.25 for Man utd.Let's just see if "Titanic" is too happen again. Bookies' position Bookie have notice that they have lost alot to punters on Man Utd. Now, we are expecting a trashing game against a team without their pillar of strength, Roy Keane. Bookie, using the public perception, has set a fair line which we expected that Man Utd will clear. But remember, this fair line, we are omitting draw from the equation. Either the punters or the bookie will prevail. Dramatic EPL Roy Keane is now the hot topic eh. Roy Keane, former Man Utd player, had turn his back against Sunderland JUST when Sunderland is to face Man Utd. This is really dramatic. But we understand Roy Keane position, sunderland have lost 5 out of 6 games, which is against blackburn and the worst game was Chelsea. This is simply humiliating for Keane I say. He was a good player back then, everyone was expecting him doing the same as a manager but things turn out the other way. But without Roy Keane, will Sunderland stand strong and tell the world what they are capable off? We shall see. Verdict It's never safe to back a team in crisis, especially with your money. You will be simply shot down. But I should remind you about the handicap and heavyboat theory and also Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool have gotten their 3 points and hardly we have all the big 4 to win together in one particular day. Yes, I understand the situation for Sunderland and the attacking force which Man Utd has, but I doubt they will clear the handicap if they are to snatch the 3 points. I will be on Sunderland +2.5 for safe bet. Good luck fellow punters.

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Result Very well defend by Sunderland. 11 man in their own half including Cisse. However, Man Utd manage to sneak all 3 points at the last desperate moment. Well done to Man Utd and all big four, but still Arsenal and Man Utd didn't manage to clear the handicap. The bookie did manage to earn some profit from both games. FT Man Utd 1-0 Sunderland. Congrats on Sunderland +2.5 and +2.25.

[On/Vol]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Thank you meladee':clap:clap:clap

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy!

Thank you meladee':clap:clap:clap

Oh, you followed my bet? Congrats and welcome :cheers

[On/Vol]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Hi,advise me please,How can you fine match to use Heavy Boat Theory,? Your theory can use other sports .Thank you

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy! WestBrom vs Portsmouth This game caught my eye more than Everton vs AstonVilla because of the team, WestBrom. This newly promoted team is now struggling at the bottom of the table and 1 win tonight, they will be so close from getting out of the relegation zone. The pressure is now on WestBrom and Tony Mowbray after a reversal defeat against Wigan. WestBrom Currently has no injury while on the other hand, Portsmouth, has plenty to mention after a defeat against Wolfburg in UEFA group stage. Now Portsmouth is offically out of UEFA cup, they do not have other match to worry now. HeavyBoat Theory 27% on WestBrom and 73% on Portsmouth. This is real heavy for a damaged Ship. I understand stats tonight, it's a newly promoted team against a team who play in UEFA cup. But the stats tonight is for level plate, so it's either WestBrom to win or Portsmouth to win and seems like Portsmouth is our hot favourite tonight. Will it be too hot for a wounded Portsmouth? Bookies' position This is a real battle between Bookies and Punters. Naturally, we wouldn't trust a team who is newly promoted, that lost to Stoke and has 4 lost and 1 draw out of 5 games. It's somehow weird that bookie has set it to level plate. So I am assuming that Bookie is on Westbrom side. I do not know and it's my assumption. But remember the handicap is set from our perceptions of the team form. Dramatic EPL The pressure is on WestBrom and Tony Mowbray after the reversal defeat against Wigan due to some mistake by Paul Robinson. There was a little altercation with the player and fans, but apologised later. We would often question the player's passion when they made mistake but nevertheless they still perform with great passion in long run. He said: "It was a bad mistake by me and I hold my hands up. I hate making mistakes. If I do it in training, I end up kicking a post and kicking a player. "That is just the way I am because I hate conceding goals. I want to defend and keep clean sheets and the gaffer gets the hump with me for kicking players but that is just my anger and me as a person.'' - Paul Robinson. (Source: Soccernet.com) I'm marking his words tonight and expect him to get a clean sheet tonight. However, Portsmouth is still worry about their wound team. They still need some adjustment within the team after a tired weekday against Wolfburg. They will probably be missing out Traore who picked up a hamstring problem. While Striker Jermain Defoe, who has had a calf niggle, came through the match without any problems, but midfielder Lassana Diarra (ankle) is out and while defender Younes Kaboul (shin) and winger John Utaka (hip) are both doubtful. Verdict Well, not so dramatic but I am expecting Westbrom to stand up again and do it for the fans. While Portsmouth will be missing out players, it's a good chance for Westbrom to obtain all 3 points without much problem. I would choose to avoid "Titanic" and side Westbrom here. WestBrom level, +0.25 or +0.5. Good luck fellow punters.

[On/Vol]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Thank you meladee :drums

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy!

Hi' date='advise me please,How can you fine match to use Heavy Boat Theory,? Your theory can use other sports .Thank you[/quote'] It's hard to explain how it is used. I do not like to say this, but sometimes i feel that some match are fixed. Which means that the outcome is already out before the game is to even kick off. Just becareful when you say this, because it's simply insulting the professionalism of the footballer. Just try to spot game which you feel it's special and might caught the bookie eye. I must warn you about using it on other league or sport but mainly on EPL. :ok

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy! Result It was an exciting game man. Both side has plenty of chances but I would say Westbrom wasted most of them. They couldn't convert them into goals. Westbrom was playing more defensively when leading 1-0. However, an equaliser at 59mins from Peter Crouch had urged the baggies to push for a winning goals. Bet refunded for level and some winnings for +0.25 and +0.5. West Brom 1-1 Portsmouth. Congrats to Westbrom.

[On/Vol]

Re: Meladee's strategy!

Result It was an exciting game man. Both side has plenty of chances but I would say Westbrom wasted most of them. They couldn't convert them into goals. Westbrom was playing more defensively when leading 1-0. However, an equaliser at 59mins from Peter Crouch had urged the baggies to push for a winning goals. Bet refunded for level and some winnings for +0.25 and +0.5. West Brom 1-1 Portsmouth. Congrats to Westbrom.

:ok:cheers Thank You

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy!

:ok:cheers Thank You

Hahahaha, thank you too for your support! :loon

[meladee]

Re: Meladee's strategy! WestHam vs Tottenham Yet another monday match. As usual, this will definitely catch any bookie eyes. Redknapp will return to Upton Park tonight and hoping for a warm reception. The Spurs manager has won every Premier League match at Upton Park as an opposing manager since leaving the Hammers. The Hammer is still without striker Dean Ashton (ankle). While Spurs midfielder Luka Modric will have his groin injury assessed ahead of the game while skipper Ledley King could return if his knee is ready for action, and Jermaine Jenas is fit following a toe problem.Alan Hutton (foot) and Giovani dos Santos (ankle) are out. HeayBoat Theory 31% on WestHam and 69% on Tottenham. The handicap is level plate. I am expecting "Titanic" to happen especially on Monday night. Bookies' Position Definitely a fair thin line set by the bookies. It's either left or right, well you can try sitting on the fence, but it's never a good feeling hahahaha. Fair enough for level plate as we can see that both are trying to earn their 3 points but it's never easy for both of them. As a bookie, you wouldn't want to hit your own legs. Last night, both Punters and Bookies survived on WBA vs Portsmouth game. But they are alive for a reason, which is tonight. Dramatic EPL Tonight, we have the Magician going back to Upton Park and hoping for a warm reception. I'm sure he will for what he had done so far for WestHam especially saving WestHam from relegation or we wouldn't have tonight match ya? RedKnapp is never new to fierce rivalry, I'm pretty sure he will do what he can. But I must remind you that he has another job as well, that is to retain the Carling Cup. Spurs is now on the semi-final and will be facing the Giant Ass Kicking, Burnley. We will see how he is able to manage such wounded team at this moment. West Ham are also protecting a three-match unbeaten run, with clean sheets in all three games. We are expecting Zola to do something to strength the unbeaten run as it's not easy to have 3 match unbeaten and clean sheets for 3 games at the same time. Verdict Remember this? "The Spurs manager has won every Premier League match at Upton Park as an opposing manager since leaving the Hammers." I'm expecting Redknapp to fail this time. He might be a "magician" but with Spurs being on poor away form, nothing is impossible. With the theory as spupport, tonight WestHam will prove a point to RedKnapp that Zola can make it good for WestHam as well. WestHam level or +0.25.