Meladee's strategy!

[meladee]

Hello fellow punters, I will start off with a little introduction about myself. I may seem to be new in this forum, but no, I’m not. I am sure most of you here are from Europe or anywhere except Asia. However, I am an Asian and I’ve been observing you people in terms of selection and reasoning. Fair enough, all reasoning is strong and firm but not the selection. Alright enough say, let’s begin with Meladee’s Punting Strategy. I will be covering on “Heavy boat Theoryâ€, “Bookies’ Position†and “Dramatic EPLâ€. Heavy Boat Theory This is a very simple theory. It is very well known in Asia, South East Asia I must say. Basically, it’s saying that the heavier the boat is, the easier it will sink. Alright fellow punters, let’s put trace all the way back to Arsenal against Man Utd. Let’s see what happen to Arsenal before the clash of the Titans. Arsenal draws against Spurs (which was in a pathetic state) in a London Derby and lose to a Stoke (a promoted team, holy crap!). I mean, oh my god, Arsenal is in Crisis! Eduardo and Tomas Rosicky remain long-term absentees, while Emmanuel Adebayor (ankle) and Emmanuel Eboue (knee) are definitely out. Dutch striker Robin van Persie is suspended, meaning the Frenchman (Arsene Wenger) is likely to deploy Nicklas Bendtner in a lone striking role or partner the Dane with youngster Carlos Vela. And most punters’ Reaction: “What!? Arsenal is in deep shit man, without much firing power and such young defence, Man Utd will definitely to steal point against Arsenal at this moment. Worst result would be a draw man, but how could that be possible? Let’s go for Asian Handicap, Man Utd -0.25 or -0.5 for better oddsâ€. Now at this moment, most of the punters will back their money on the Red Devil. Can the boat sustain such large number of passenger? Well, even Titanic sank. Did you put your money on Man Utd? Yes you did. You backed your money on Chelsea against Arsenal too right? (Result Arsenal 2-1 Man Utd) (Result Chelsea 1-2 Arsenal) It is not very applicable if you simply choose to use the Heavy Boat theory alone. Just be careful when making selection. Bookies’ Position Now fellow punters, you’re still not convinced yet? Remember, punting is never fair, especially to punters (I’m talking about Asian handicap odds here) but we still wage a war against bookie with our only weapon, money. I love this sentence, quoted from punter allthethings, “bears repeating that bookies don't set a line based on the strength of the teams, but on the public's perception of the strength of the teams. This is important always to keep in mind.†Now let me give an example on Spurs against Arsenal game. The value on 1x2 will be favouring on Arsenal and the Asian Handicap would be -1 for Arsenal. Just when you thought the bookies are siding with you. They are merely using the public’s perception to set the value, so that they won’t lose big but instead win big from the punters like you. So let’s say out of 1000 punters, 800 chose Arsenal to win and Arsenal -1 and 200 chose Spurs +1 and Spurs to win or maybe some on draw. IF you are the bookie, will you let the 800 punters on Arsenal and 200 punters on spurs to win prevail? Is Tottenham Hotspurs sponsor called Mansion? Opps, did I mention anything? Always put yourself into bookies position for better view of selection. Dramatic EPL Why did I say dramatic? Let me begin by mentioning all the drama that had happened in EPL so far this season. First, Tottenham start of the season very poor and when it comes to London Derby while trailing 2-4 against one of the Top Giant, Arsenal, they manage to make it a 4-4 draw in only 2 minutes. It shattered many punters’ hope eh. Next drama, Arsenal drew during London Derby which they should have won it and lost to Stoke the next match. Not forgetting a draw at home against Fenerbache when they trashed them 2-5 at away. At the same time, Arsenal was facing crisis and they are facing Man Utd the next game! But what was the result when everyone expects Man Utd to sneak point? You jolly well know the result. What’s more? When everyone is mentioning Chelsea 89 home run unbeaten record, they actually lost it at home against Liverpool! Did you expect a home win or a draw to make it 90 home run unbeaten record? What did you do? Backing your money on double chance, Home win or draw or Chelsea -0.25 and -0.5? Well sorry men, the drama made it clear that Chelsea record stop that night. Well well well, what do we have here? Did I hear the commentator saying that Rooney is still stuck on his 99th goal in the Man Utd? Berbatov took his shot, missed. Ronaldo tried on his free kick, missed. Rooney in the penalty area and what, he scored! What a hint by the commentator and what a drama. The result ended up Man City 0-1 Man Utd, and Wayne Rooney the only goal scorer. Joe Cole openly criticized Arsenal and taunted Arsenal, “Show us your trophies, not your pretty football.†Well, Joe Cole is right in general but let’s looks it in a dramatic point of view. Ronaldo did the opposite of Joe Cole and regard Arsenal as a threat. Despite on the guard, the defending champion lost the game. Who is Joe Cole compared to Ronaldo? Get what I mean? So what’s the result being off guard? The result is Chelsea 1-2 Arsenal. Just take note of some drama happening in EPL, it might affect your selection. Conclusion Well, I’m trying to tell every punter that you should be extra careful when making any selection. What ever reasoning you gave can be very convincing but your selection can be weak and might be a trap set by the bookies. The above strategy or advise I should say, are guides that how you should make your selection. Anyway, the choice is yours, the advise is mine. I hope it will make punting much better for you. PS: I am pretty open for correction; I hope you guys will correct me. I might post some selections here to try out the strategy. Kick racism out of football! Good luck to all punter. :ok :cheers :cow

[meladee]

Liverpool vs WestHam Very interesting match I must say. With Chelsea dropping points against Arsenal. Liverpool willl spare no mercy in snatching any points in their way now. A summarize preview, Liverpool will be missing out Torres but welcoming Gerrard back from UEFA CL rest. Westham last win against Liverpool was in 1963. Bellamy will return to Anfield but this time will be playing against his former club, Liverpool. Heavy Boat Theory If you have read about this theory, you will understand how it works. According to Asianbookie.com statistic, 71% of the punters are on Liverpool -1.5. In other words, Liverpool to win by 2 goals and the remaining 29% on WestHam -1.5 and what they are looking for is a draw against Liverpool. Bookies' position The value for Liverpool is at 2.05 and WestHam at 1.85. Fair enough as we are omitting draw in the equation. For 1x2, Liverpool: 1.35, Draw: 4.8, WestHam:10.48. Now we see the difference. Remember that the odds are set by our perception by the bookie. Will bookie allow 71% prevail? We shall see. Dramatic EPL So, did i mention about Westham not winning Liverpool since 1963? Without Torres, will Robbie Keane make a difference for Liverpool tonight? Bellamy will be returning to Anfield to play against his former club. Benitez praised Bellamy skills but yet he sold him. How ironic. WestHam insisted that Tevez trauma is not affecting the team. How sure can they be? Zola said: ""As far as I'm concerned I know the club is strong enough to deal with it and the players and manager are not concerned about it." Verdict Westham +1.75 if you wish to avoid "Titanic" and for safer bet. Both Fulham, Aston Villa and Newcastle are able to draw against the Giants. When the rest can do so? Why not Westham? I predict that Liverpool will only win by 1 goal margin at most. 0-0,1-0, or 2-1. Worst result you will see is 2-0 or 3-0. Good luck fellow punters. :hope Result Liverpool 0-0 WestHam. Good start I must say, hopefully I will be consistent enough to keep my profit warm.