GaF Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Ok - lets try and demonstrate the maths. 10 players left with stacks of: 10k 9k 8k 7k 6k 5k 4k 3k 2k 1k Their chances of finishing first are exactly equal to their proportion of chips - so: 10,00018.2%9,00016.4%8,00014.5%7,00012.7%6,00010.9%5,0009.1%4,0007.3%3,0005.5%2,0003.6%1,0001.8% Now looking at 2nd place ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Yes - the calculations are in the public domain......problem is that by the time you fifth place, it's getting reasonably complicated - it's beyond my excel skills (will need scripting I think :unsure) but imagine it'll be pretty straightforward for someone who can do it :unsure Having said that, not sure what advantage you would get by having available in Excel as opposed to the website :unsure if we can build in some calc's to take in what the blinds are/going to be, it makes the ICM model more relevant as to what is exactly happening in the game at that precise point. At the moment the you get the same result if the blinds are 10/20 or 10K/20K yes? I am not saying it would work, but asking whether it is possible? For instance when do we call (or shove) with our cards - to use your 22 post earlier, if we can put our opponent on playing top 30%, and we hold 22 should we call the AI if the blinds are 10/20, 75/150, 300/600 etc - that way we can (hopefully) put multiple blinds into the sheet with the appropriate calc's and see straight away at what blind point we should call with 22 by it showing as a positive expectation (does that make sense?). Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers At the moment the you get the same result if the blinds are 10/20 or 10K/20K yes? Yes and that is probably one of the biuggest weaknesses of ICM. ICM is only used when you are short stacked - It compares shoving/calling a shove with folding - it doesnt consider other options - calling/raising etc. In general you should not be using ICM until the effective stack size is less than about 10xBB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Yes and that is probably one of the biuggest weaknesses of ICM. ICM is only used when you are short stacked - It compares shoving/calling a shove with folding - it doesnt consider other options - calling/raising etc. In general you should not be using ICM until the effective stack size is less than about 10xBB. A-HA - thank you for the clarification - so once you get to the 100/200 stage most players at the table fall under ICM - so all we need to know then is their potential shove range and pick our BB hands and see if we should call - so its not blinds we need to know but shove ranges. Thanks :ok Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers The shove ranges are where you need to use your "feel" - where judgement comes into play.... In many situations though, the correct action is the same, regardless of the shove range of your opponent - in that case it is purely a mathematical problem..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers So we know that there are only 4 possibilities: 1) We fold and leave ourselves with a seat worth €4.46 2) We call and win leaving ourselves with a seat worth €8.10 3) We call and lose, leaving ourselves with a seat worth €1.69 4) We call and split the pot leaving ourselves with a seat worth €5.63 So which option do we want? We want to call and win :) Option number two please. Unfortunately it's not as straightforward as that - we only have two choices - we can fold and accept option 1, or we can call and take one of options 2, 3 or 4, but we cannot control the outcome or chose which one. We can however estimate (with the results of post 15) the chances of each option coming up :) 1) If we fold, we are 100% certain of a seat worth €4.46. 2) If we call, we have a 48.72% chance of winning a seat worth €8.10. Multiply these out and the "expectation" is for a seat worth €8.10 x 48.72% = €3.95 3) If we call, we have a 49.39% chance of losing and being left with a seat worth €1.69. The expectation for this seat is therefore €1.69 x 49.39% = €0.83 4) If we call, we have a 1.9% chance of splitting the pot and being left with a seat worth €5.63. The expectation for this seat is €5.63 x 1.9% = €0.11 We can add up the expectation of all 3 results if we call to find our total expectation if we call - so it is €3.95 + €0.83 + €0.11 = €4.89 So we can now compare the value of our only 2 options: A) We can fold and be left with a seat worth €4.46 B) We can call and be left with a seat expected to be worth €4.89 So you now have a choice - would you like €4.46, or would you like €4.89? Most poker players will choose the €4.89 (call) as this is worth 10% more than the alternative. Pheeew ... any questions to here? Just the one, I have 15 seconds to make my choice, is there anyway I can actually use this information real time or is it a tool for hand review after Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Just the one' date=' I have 15 seconds to make my choice, is there anyway I can actually use this information real time or is it a tool for hand review after[/quote'] I think there are applications that will give you real time info for standard STTs. TO the best of my knowledge (I havent looked), they dont go to 5 places paid and therefore wont work specifically for coolers. I dont think there are tools available that will allow you to use ICM in coolers in real time. I think this is really just for post hand analysis..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubermonkey1 Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers very interesting gaf:ok although it only works on hand analasis it will pull up some interesting figure by the looks of it.might not help in real time but it does give a different prospective ,which can only be a good thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fonzie14 Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Thanks Gaf. Have had a quick scan through. Will go over it again when I've a bit more time and try and find some tricky questions for ya. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Worth emphasizing - we've so far only looked at how to analyse the situation where someone has shoved, you are last to act and need to call or fold. Next will be looking at whether you shove or fold when everyone folds to you in the small blind.... Make sure you understand this Damo - because at the end I'll give you a hand to analyse and ask you to come up with the numbers to check it makes sense :ok I'll post a hand up in the next day or so (next time I face what looks a tricky decision :ok) Ok Damo - what do you do here? PokerStars Game #22258056978: Tournament #122153199, $5.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/11/22 12:47:43 CET [2008/11/22 6:47:43 ET] Table '122153199 1' 10-max Seat #8 is the button Seat 2: pl-GaF (1987 in chips) Seat 3: laggieb (2350 in chips) Seat 5: goober_drl (2300 in chips) Seat 6: FdS4 (3688 in chips) Seat 8: kl3in3go3r3 (2070 in chips) Seat 10: PwnD_u_HarD (2605 in chips) pl-GaF: posts the ante 20 laggieb: posts the ante 20 goober_drl: posts the ante 20 FdS4: posts the ante 20 kl3in3go3r3: posts the ante 20 PwnD_u_HarD: posts the ante 20 PwnD_u_HarD: posts small blind 100 pl-GaF: posts big blind 200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to pl-GaF [:8c: :8h:] laggieb: folds goober_drl: folds FdS4: folds kl3in3go3r3: folds PwnD_u_HarD: raises 2385 to 2585 and is all-in pl-GaF: ?????????????? If anyone else wants a bash at crunching the analysis - go for it - I think we can trust Damo not to look at any responses before posting :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Worth emphasizing - we've so far only looked at how to analyse the situation where someone has shoved, you are last to act and need to call or fold. Next will be looking at whether you shove or fold when everyone folds to you in the small blind.... without crunching I insta-fold here I will now go and make myself some coffee syrup to ensure my tired brain is buzzing and do some maths BRB Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers I havent "crunched" yet either - but tend to agree looking at it now - a fairly simple fold :unsure Though I called it :loon :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol I'm pretty certain I'm ahead of his range, but that definitely doesnt make it right to call.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Bah, how do you get the nice fancy easy to read post that looks like the spreadsheet you have in excel! rather than that nonsense above! :eyes Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Put a grid around your numbers in Excel :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Not a huge difference, but I dont agree with your "Equity if we call and win" number.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Not a huge difference' date=' but I dont agree with your "Equity if we call and win" number....[/quote'] With the numbers you have, everything else looking spot on to me - so it's a massive massive massive fold, even if he is shoving with any two cards..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Not a huge difference, but I dont agree with your "Equity if we call and win" number.... probably the antes - caused me all sorts of problems trying to work out who got what! Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Better - yes/no?? To be honest - I'm not really bothered by the layout (so long as I can work out what you're trying to say - which I can) - what's improtant are the numbers - and other than what looks one small error, they look good :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers you got another one please? Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers you got another one please? Damo Oh - for sure - I can find as many as you like :ok I'll give you the same format for this one - just to make sure you've got it (I'm pretty sure you have) and then for the next one, I'll chuck in some curve balls to make it a little trickier ;) Ok what about this one? Think it would be interesting if you give your thoughts before the analysis and after the analysis - it will be interesting to see what you think when the maths are different from your gut feel :ok PokerStars Game #21668185509: Tournament #117749055, $1.00+$0.10 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2008/11/01 10:53:20 ET Table '117749055 1' 10-max Seat #1 is the button Seat 1: kengt24 (2740 in chips) Seat 3: BigRobStud (3030 in chips) Seat 4: pl-GaF (1600 in chips) Seat 5: migrita (1005 in chips) Seat 7: rulin (4775 in chips) Seat 8: KRAUSATOR (1850 in chips) kengt24: posts the ante 30 BigRobStud: posts the ante 30 pl-GaF: posts the ante 30 migrita: posts the ante 30 rulin: posts the ante 30 KRAUSATOR: posts the ante 30 BigRobStud: posts small blind 150 pl-GaF: posts big blind 300 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to pl-GaF [:7d: :7s:] migrita: folds rulin: raises 900 to 1200 KRAUSATOR: folds kengt24: folds BigRobStud: folds pl-GaF:???????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Ok what about this one? Think it would be interesting if you give your thoughts before the analysis and after the analysis - it will be interesting to see what you think when the maths are different from your gut feel :ok I said insta-call, then I realised that migrita is UTG, so BB next hand. Hmm I might just fold this and hope that someone else busts/I get to shove something better (it depends on how aggressive and bullying rulin & BRstud are really) Right, off to crunch! Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers I havent done any numbers - but I'm expecting it to be quite a solid fold :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 24, 2008 Author Share Posted November 24, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Just had a quick look at SnGWiz and SNG Power Tools and they both have support for Pokerstars Double or Nothing......so the software does seem to have adapted for these :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 24, 2008 Author Share Posted November 24, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Ok - so it's a pretty simple fold - which seems to have surprised you somewhat. Any thoughts on why it might be such a straightforward fold? My thoughts typically when I first look at a hand are "Where am I now - am I in a money spot?" - if you're 5th of 6th (as you are in this case) - then if everyone finishes where they are now, then you win! So the pressure is on someone else - you dont need to stick your chips in - they need to do it first..... That's the overwhelming factor in this hand for me - if noone plays any more hands, and the blinds are removed from play, then you win - so sit tight - fold everything except absolute monsters.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 Re: Understanding ICM analysis in Coolers Ok - so it's a pretty simple fold - which seems to have surprised you somewhat. Any thoughts on why it might be such a straightforward fold? ... I was thinking you were the short stack - hence the insta-call remark - realised then that UTG was shorter than you, so it becomes an easy fold, simply because they are really under pressure the next 2 hands as the blinds go through, I would (90%) probably fold AK and JJ here as well - unsure about QQ, might shove(probably half the time) with KK, defo reshove with AA. Why play AA - simply because UTG might double up next hand/hand after. so you are now in trouble, I think this is one of the times that you don't pass AA in a cooler on the bubble. Just my thoughts Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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