GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 If he calls: 33.83% chance he loses and he goes to 79.126% tournament prize equity (post 8) 64.47% chance he wins and goes to 95.554% tournament prize equity (below) 1.7% chance he ties and remains on 88.896% equity (post 3) So that adds up to: (33.83%x.79126)+(64.47%x.95554)+(1.7%x.88896)=89.8832% Tournament prize equity. Calling with AKo increases his equity if I shove with any two :ok Tournament Equity before hand88.896%Tournament equity if BB fold pre flop86.391%Tournament equity if I shove with any 2 and BB calls89.883% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Ok - question I'm going to look at now is "If the BB calls me with any 2 cards' date=' what range should I shove with for my tournament ev to be equivalent of folding"[/quote'] I'm going to go back to this question now..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 If I shove top 50%, then I win 56.26%, Lose 40.72% and tie 3.02%. So 50% of the time I fold and my equity falls to 39.719% 28.13% of the time I shove and win with my equity increasing to 68.809% 20.36% of the time I shove and lose having no tournament equity left 1.51% of the time I shove and tie with my tournament equity left at 44.604% This works out to 39.889% Equity. I wont list the details, but equity with various other shove ranges give me...... Tournament Equity before hand44.604%Tournament equity if I fold pre flop39.719%Tournament equity if I shove, am called with any two31.855%Tournament equity if I shove and am called by top 50%38.865%If I shove top 50% and BB calls 100%39.889%If I shove top 40% and BB calls 100%40.324%If I shove top 30% and BB calls 100%40.511%If I shove top 20% and BB calls 100%40.570%If I shove top 10% and BB calls 100%40.442% So the fold equity is critical (:lol - ok - we all already knew that!!) - even though we're short stacked, if we have lost fold equity and will be called with any 2 then we need decent starting hand requirements - something between top 20% and 30% of hands.... Will repeat the process now with 50% fold equity (BB calls with top 50% of hands) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Ok - clearly something wrong with my maths - no way a tighter range can be better if you have more fold equity .... so dont pay too much attention to the figures you see here so far - I will find my error!!! EDIT - Table removed.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Realise my error in the above numbers :ok Removing the table so it doesnt confuse and new figures shortly :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 15, 2008 Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Now that's really interesting - in tournament prize ev, assuming the BB calls any two, it's massively negative ev to shove, as opposed to folding, even though it's positive ev in tournament chips!! :loon :loon That's first big surprise for me! Isn't that what you'd expect? That risking all your chips is much worse for you prize ev than for your chip ev? Or do you mean that you were surprised how big the difference was? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 I was surprised that the difference was so big between Tournament Chips ev and Tournament Prize ev - but more so I was surprised that one was quite a large positive whilst the other was quite a large negative - I expected differences - just not so large.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 20081411 - Cooler Analysis - Summary Obvious place to start is with the hand that knocked me out ..... though I suspect my big errors were before this..... I would fold this, the blinds have gone through you and are now threatening a smaller stack and two other similar sized stacks to yours. I would rather wait and call to someone elses shove with a much better hand, or just call ATC on my next BB if its shoved to me. Shipping it now against a stack with 3K+ who only needs another 700 to call is not a good play, unless the BB has shown themselves to be a tight player and folding their BB to small stack shoves. Just my thoughts Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 18, 2008 Author Share Posted November 18, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Cant disagree with you on that one - think I definitely got it wrong :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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