GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 20081411 - Cooler Analysis - Summary Obvious place to start is with the hand that knocked me out ..... though I suspect my big errors were before this..... ***** Hand 1320764270 ***** 150.00/300.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit ) - 14 November 2008 19:35:29 Cooler (Real /Tournament ) Seat 2: jigen74 (2944.00) Seat 3: XenderAlli (2220.00) Seat 4: RayPenber (858.00) Seat 5: aALjane (1435.00) Seat 6: PL-Aldric (1405.00) Seat 7: pl---GaF (1005.00) Seat 9: albi70 (3778.00) Seat 10: nike123 (1355.00) pl---GaF post SB 150.00 albi70 post BB 300.00 ** Deal ** jigen74 [N/A, N/A] XenderAlli [N/A, N/A] RayPenber [N/A, N/A] aALjane [N/A, N/A] PL-Aldric [N/A, N/A] pl---GaF [:6s:, :Td:] albi70 [N/A, N/A] nike123 [N/A, N/A] *** Bet Round 1 *** nike123 Fold jigen74 Fold XenderAlli Fold RayPenber Fold aALjane Fold PL-Aldric Fold pl---GaF All-in 1005.00 albi70 Call 1005.00 *** Flop(Board): *** : [Ks, 5c, 6d] *** Turn(Board): *** : [Ks, 5c, 6d, As] *** River(Board): *** : [Ks, 5c, 6d, As, 3d] *** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 2010.00 jigen74 Fold Win: 0.00 XenderAlli Fold Win: 0.00 RayPenber Fold Win: 0.00 aALjane Fold Win: 0.00 PL-Aldric Fold Win: 0.00 pl---GaF [6s, 10d] Pair of sixes Win: 0.00 albi70 [Kc, Ah] Two pair aces and kings Win: 2010.00 nike123 Fold Win: 0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 I would have done the same, you were just unfortunate he had a hand to call you with. I will have a look back at your hand history later and see if I would have done anything different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Before the hand started I had 44.6% equity in a prize place. Interesting that it's only 5.6% down from where I started - so in getting to this point I havent lost that much equity in the tournament, despite having lost a third of my stack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 If I fold, then I still have nearly 40% equity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Interesting that my fold, I lose 4% equity - but the guy who gets the walk only increases his equity by 1.1% 0 the other equity I lose is shared amongst the other players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 If we say that I shove and the BB calls with any two cards, then the odds of my winning the hand are: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 So I am 43.85% likely to increase my stack to 2010. I have a 51.66% chance of busting out. and a 4.48% chance of a tie and staying on 1005. So my expectation is (2010x43.85%) + (51.55%x0) + (1005x4.48%) = 926.409 That is higher than my stack if I fold and give him a walk - so tournament chips wise it seems positive ev to shove even if he calls with any two cards (I will look later at what happens if he calls tighter) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Transferring those figures into tournament Prize pool EV. 2010 chips would give me an EV of 68% of a prize - that's an increase in EV of about 23.5% of a prize from the start of the hand. 0 chips obviously gives me 0% equity in the prize pool A tie leaves equity as it was before the hand (obvious weakness of ICM given that I've kep my SB and some and now have more time...) So my tournament equity if I shove and if the BB calls with any two cards is: (43.85%x68.089) + (51.66%x0) + (4.48%x44.604%) = 31.85529% equity in a tournament prize. Now that's really interesting - in tournament prize ev, assuming the BB calls any two, it's massively negative ev to shove, as opposed to folding, even though it's positive ev in tournament chips!! :loon :loon That's first big surprise for me! Think I need to double check my calculations .... will start by summarising where I am at the moment though (in the next post) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Ok - so it's looking like a pretty obvious (bloody gigantic) fold if he'll call with any two!! Tournament Equity before hand44.604%Tournament equity if I fold pre flop39.719%Tournament equity if I shove, am called with any two31.855% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 BUT, the question to be fair isn't what you were holding is it? I guarantee you would have shoved with any 2 cards in that situation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 But the cards I was holding were not an unknown. The question I need to answer is "Given that I had T6o, should I shove or fold". What he is actually holding in the hand is irrelevent because I didn't have that information when I made my decision. My cards are very relevent though as I knew what they were when I made my decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 BTW I'm expecting Slapdash to come on at some stage and tell me that what I'm doing doesn't make any sense/is incorrect :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fonzie14 Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 But the cards I was holding were not an unknown. The question I need to answer is "Given that I had T6o' date=' should I shove or fold". What he is actually holding in the hand is irrelevent because I didn't have that information when I made my decision. My cards are very relevent though as I knew what they were when I made my decision.[/quote'] But your strategy, if I've picked it up right, is to push with ATC at this point, given the right situation, ie - first in pot , believing that the other guy shoud fold irrespective of his holding....:unsure... or have I got it wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Ok - question I'm going to look at now is "If the BB calls me with any 2 cards, what range should I shove with for my tournament ev to be equivalent of folding" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 But your strategy' date=' if I've picked it up right, is to push with ATC at this point, given the right situation, ie - first in pot , believing that the other guy shoud fold irrespective of his holding....:unsure... or have I got it wrong?[/quote'] Yes you are right..... however in this situation, I have a large stack acting after me, and I've probably waited too long/got too low - my fold equity is limited - I didn't really expect him to fold to me (though he probably should :unsure). I will look at the figures in a bit with various amounts of fold equity. I'll also look at it from his perspective and see what range he should call me with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 I think you can start by limiting his range... also I think you have not kaen into account folding equity into you hand win %... options should be: Tournament Equity before hand44.604%Tournament equity if I fold pre flop39.719%Tournament equity if I shove, am called with any two31.855% You also need to find a way to calculate a median call % and factor your stack/equity result if he folds... Equity before the hand Equity if fold pre Equity if I shove, am called with any two Equity if I shove, am called with top 50% (Covers any A plus some so I think is reasonable but could extend to 70% or perhaps even do both and then asses on a player by player basis to find optimum play) Equity if Opponent folds (This is directly opposed to all other stats as he will either call or fold as will you I think that eliminates all possibilities of action taken by both players) ... I think that is right :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Agree Punto (well the first 4 at least - I'm unsure about the 5th) - the others are coming :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Equity if I shove, am called with top 50% (Covers any A plus some so I think is reasonable but could extend to 70% or perhaps even do both and then asses on a player by player basis to find optimum play) What I'm thinking at the moment is if I can come up with a reasonable shove range for me (better than "any two"), then we can work out what his response will be to that shove range (and we can then recalculate my shove range, using his response call range) .... iteratively we should be able to get close to optimal play for both players (not that I expect him to play that way, or come to that, for me to have done) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Agree Punto (well the first 4 at least - I'm unsure about the 5th) - the others are coming :ok Thing is as a basic tool I guess it MAY be ok to say he always calls but put simply you play is based on folding equity in the first place!!!!! I simplay don't see how you cannot factor it in... it will almost certainly make you play a greater % although i guess folding equity is opposed to the % of hands he calls with.... lol :$ So if you tag him as a 70% called your folding equity is 30% (I am kind of silly as you may have noticed :$) Have never really sat down and tried this stuff... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 What I'm thinking at the moment is if I can come up with a reasonable shove range for me (better than "any two"), then we can work out what his response will be to that shove range (and we can then recalculate my shove range, using his response call range) .... iteratively we should be able to get close to optimal play for both players (not that I expect him to play that way, or come to that, for me to have done) But then if you wait for a certain 'shove range' you will have even less fold equity. I shoved a few minutes ago with 73 on the button and was called with KQ. I won the hand and was slagged off rotten for it. IMO you just have to make a move with any 2 cards or you will be blinded out. OR you have to play 'proper' poker to try to build a stack before the biger blinds kick in... stop folding AK in early position / early in the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Punto - I'm pretty certain we agree 100% :ok Having him call with any two cards was simply a starting point - I will be recrunching the numbers with various amounts of fold equity :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 But then if you wait for a certain 'shove range' you will have even less fold equity. I shoved a few minutes ago with 73 on the button and was called with KQ. I won the hand and was slagged off rotten for it. IMO you just have to make a move with any 2 cards or you will be blinded out. OR you have to play 'proper' poker to try to build a stack before the biger blinds kick in... stop folding AK in early position / early in the tournament. I am a fan for playing proper poker especially as these donks start to think more they will adapt a fold first attitude... that can be taken advantage of but i guess until you see your numbers drop and the players develop keep doing what works... btw GAF these results could be AMAZINGLY useful... may even get me playing them.... if you can work out correct mathematical moves for these types of senarios it would be a massive advantage...:ok Edit: would certainly help for satelliting also especially as 5-10 seats paid are so common... EDIT 2: I don't exactly have time now as i am in the middle of a session however later today of tomorrow I will post up the hand I called all with JJ and also when I called the other all in with J5 and see what happens (If that is possible) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 But then if you wait for a certain 'shove range' you will have even less fold equity. I shoved a few minutes ago with 73 on the button and was called with KQ. I won the hand and was slagged off rotten for it. IMO you just have to make a move with any 2 cards or you will be blinded out. OR you have to play 'proper' poker to try to build a stack before the biger blinds kick in... stop folding AK in early position / early in the tournament. I shove for just one reason - to increase my tournament equity ev - if a range of hands dont increase my tournament ev, then my reason for shoving is gone. At the moment, I shove with any two there - if my investigation here shows me that that is wrong, then I will not be shoving with any two there.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Ok - question I'm going to look at now is "If the BB calls me with any 2 cards' date=' what range should I shove with for my tournament ev to be equivalent of folding"[/quote'] Ok - I'm going to change the question I'm looking at - I'll crunch the numbers instead on what happens if the BB only calls with top 50% of hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 This is what "Top 50%" means: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 This is the hand win rates when he calls with top 50% hands: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Yeh I only had a quick look using pokerstove.... didnt want AA mucked :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 So if I shove then: 50% of the time, he will fold and I will have 1305 chips. That will give me 53% tournament equity in a prize. 31.715% of the time he calls and wins and I am knocked out of the tournament with no tournament equity left 17.6975% of the time he calls and I win leaving me with 2010 chips and 68.089% equity in a tournament prize (as posted in post 8) 0.59% of the time he calls and we split the pot. I am left with the equity I had before the hand (post 3) - 44.604% of a prize. That adds up to total tournament prize equity of: (50%x53.103) + (31.715%x0) + (17.6975%x68.089) + (0.59%x44.604) = 38.8647% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 So that seems to suggest that if the BB is only calling with top 50% then we still get more tournament equity by folding T6o than by shoving it :unsure Tournament Equity before hand44.604%Tournament equity if I fold pre flop39.719%Tournament equity if I shove, am called with any two31.855%Tournament equity if I shove and am called by top 50%38.865% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: 20081114 - Cooler Analysis - Hand 35 Ok - going to look at this now from the BB perspective, assuming I shove with any two..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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