Could this be the system?...

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Hi folks I've been testing and back-proofing many, many ideas for identifying profitable footy selections (automatically) for years now. I'm with Joe on the thought that it takes a LONG time to show that a 'system' really is going to show a steady, consistent profit. I've had many that have been showing promise after 50, 100, even 300 bets before the downward turn begins. I'm currently backing the selections of my latest attempt with real cash as it is 484 bets down the line (that's level stake singles) with a return of 512 units (5.8% profit). Not a gold-mine, I agree, but it is a profit and it is over a long time period. Obviously, spending time analysing the selections to de-select really bad choices 'should' increase this, but it's interesting a profit is showing after this many bets with no hard work! The return can be increased to (14.5%) with a subtle staking plan, but I want to continue to show a profit with level stakes. The data I'm using for this is English league games only from the 1997/98 season onwards (well over 8000 games) obtained from a combination of data from Joe's site ( www.football-data.co.uk ) and Mabels Tables ( www.mabels-tables.com ). (Joe, any chance of you getting odds for years before?) In essence, the system identifies big value in the AWAY odds, based on particular sequences of previous games. I don't have access to previous Asian Handicap odds so I can't comment on how this type of bet on each selection would do, but the nature of the bets mean it could be the way to go!? Anyway, enough of the background. Here are this weekend's selections from the system: 1. Middlesborough v Man City (4.33) 2. Northampton v Port Vale (3.00) 3. Oldham v Cheltenham (5.50) 4. Tottenham v Leeds (3.20) (Odds taken from ladbrokes.com as this is the bookie prices I have back-proofed the system with. Obviously, obtaining the best odds around will inevitably increase the return, but I have the majority of my on-line cash here and don't have the time or inclination to spend time doing otherwise!) For the purposes of this exercies I'll start with a bank/pot of 100 units and back each selection with a single unit and see how the pot does! Again, I'm backing these now with my own money so I'll be living the results! I'll do my best to keep this post going. Hope you don't mind. Regards, Wayne (comments appreciated!) www.football4profit.co.uk

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Could this be the system?... Very interesting given the number of bets. Do you actually calculate fair odds for your selections to compare with bookie's prices? If so could tell us how your average fair odds compare with your strike rate? 5% is not to be sniffed at, there are many who would pay for details of such a system and I will be delighted if my system is showing 5% after 500 bets. Like you I am having small stakes on my system selections. When you post your summary data will you include the bets to date or just the ones that you have posted here? Regarding the odds you really do want to be taking best odds. If that is impractical for you then I suggest you at least record the best odds for comparision and to highlight the profit you are missing out on. Also, these tend to be the type of bets where much better odds can be obtained on an exchange. Good luck and I hope you keep this up.

[Guest madmick]

nice work Good luck with this Wayne, sounds interesting. I have looked into this area also and have experimented with many methods, often coming to a similar conclusion/confusion(!) about value in big AWAY odds. The big problem I have with the Asians and/or spreads is that I don't know where to get the historical data to back it up, but intuitively you'd imagine it should be better, as the strike rate could be increased substantially. The other possibility might be laying the home team in such situations. I'd be interested in discussing the ideas further if you like, offline if necessary. Good luck M.

[Joe]

Re: nice work

(Joe, any chance of you getting odds for years before?)

Afraid not, unless I rip Mable off, which I'm not prepared to do since Bill Hunter's site was the very first betting site I ever came across and is one reason why I'm still doing this today. :) Mick, you can get past Asian odds from Tip-ex.

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: nice work Wayne I am confused after looking at your website. You talk here of 5% profit yet on your website you appear to be trying to sell tips claiming up to 52% profit. Is that yield?

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Re: nice work Hi all, A few points on your comments... 1) I appreciate that searching for and taking the best odds available WILL increase any returns, but if I succeed in making a steady profit from a single bookie then I'll be happy. It would be interesting to see how big the difference is though! I'm after a quick, easy, no hassle way of making a bit of cash through my betting activity. Wouldn't we all like that? Having a quick look on www.betbrain.com best odds shows some big differences, as expected: Man City (4.33) bb: 4.50 Port Vale (3.00) bb: 3.90 (!) Cheltenham (5.50) bb: 7.00 (!) Leeds (3.20) bb: 3.60 Not really sure how to play this. Is it realistic to compare things with 'best odds'? Would anyone actually achieve this regularly? How would quoting average betbrain odds stand up, long term, do you think? These are betbrains average odds: Man City (4.33) bb: 4.00 Port Vale (3.00) bb: 3.15 Cheltenham (5.50) bb: 6.28 Leeds (3.20) bb: 3.10 Ladbrokes overall avg odds: 4.01 BetBrain overall avg odds: 4.13 2) The link is not my site at all. I mention it in some postings I do through a prior arrangement with those involved. Any questions are best directed at them! 3) I think I'll just start from scratch regarding selections and returns in these messages. I could claim and post anything to make up the figures mentioned above so it would be nice to show a profit from here onwards. You'd all be impressed and I'll be better off! Fingers crossed for the system selections!

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: nice work Thanks for clearing that up. I have no questions for the site owner, well none that they would welcome. Regarding best odds, I quote from bookies that I hold an account with or would be willing to open one with. In my case that restricts me to U.K. bookmakers. In reality I have accounts with all but one of the quoted bookmakers. In practice, most of my bets are matched on Betfair at higher odds than I can obtain from the accounts I have. In this way, anyone following my selections should be able to achieve the same profit or loss as proofed. Hope that helps. Looking forward to your selections, best of luck with the system.

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Re: Could this be the system?... I've been tweaking with the parameters of the system, as usual, and putting some realistic figures against things as they would have happened (chronologically): Starting with a pot of 100 units, betting a level stake of 5 units on each bet, the pot would now stand at just over 250 units (after 459 bets). 150 units profit! I wish I could put the graph in this message! Basically it has a fairly steady climb, over the first 300 bets, until the betting bank nearly touches 450. A bad spells ensues taking it down to around 200(!) at around 400 bets, but then recovers to the situation mentioned above. Don't really know what to make of it except that it shows a decent profit over time using a set of rules requiring no studying of form of any kind. Will be interesting from now on.

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Could this be the system?... It will be very interesting as it sounds very similar to what I am doing myself as does the performance. To post graphs, first get them saved as gifs or some other browser compatible file and then place them on your webspace. Then click on the "Post a Link" link you see on the left when you are writing a post. That will tell you how to link to the graphics files.

[Guest pandy1965]

Ups and downs Wayne, I suggest that you probably are on to something, though I also suggest strongly that any patterns you manage to find in historical data are of limited use, for the following reason .... The bookamkers have access to HUGE databases and undoubtedly run neural technologies over these databases to identify all sorts of trends and patterns. If you can find a system which works backing blindly, undoubtedly as you recognise it, so do they, and they "close the door" (if they haven't already) by pricing the games differently to cover their positions. Where you might have an advantage, is that they may overreact to a trend which they find, thus creating an opportunity by doing exactly what your system tells you not to ? Of course, the disadvantage you have is not knowing if and when they have identified it ! If you could post any graphs, or even selections, I'd love to run some sort of analysis over it to see if the above opinion holds. Good luck anyhow, Drew

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Results None from 4 to start with, though the nature of the bets will inevitably have many dry spells. Shame Cheltenham couldn't sneak a goal. A 5.50 winner on the first week of this would have been a good start! Analysing the back-proofed data a little shows the poorest losing run as 15 straight bets and the best being an incredible spell of 6 straight wins (at any average of 3.68!). I'm working on getting some graphs on here for you to look at. Also, I can't decide whether to proof at 5 units per bet or 1. I might go with 5, in which case I'm already down to a pot of 80.

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Results 5 units or 1 - there is no difference. The underlying performance will be the same.

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Latest amendments/graphs... My latest tinkering with the system has produced some very interesting results... Reminder: The system is back-proofed using data from the 1997/1998 season onwards (over 8000 league games) It assumes a starting pot of 100 units, backing level stake singles of 5 units per bet: (a much steadier climb than previous versions of the system!) Without the Premiership the pot would stand at well over 350 units! (though with a hundred or so less bets) This all looks promising! Joe, how would these sort of figures stand up against services in your tipster league? I'll post future selections according to the new parameters in the system. Again, comments welcome.

[Joe]

Re: Latest amendments/graphs... Better than your current service ;) Why exactly are you not using these bets for your advice, or are you? The records look very impressive indeed since they are sustained over such a long period of time, without any serious collapse of confidence. Hard too know how they would fair in the league, since it's run on a seasonal basis. If we assume about 100 bets a season at 5% yield and 3% stakes, bank growth is about 15%, giving a league figure of 115.

[Guest smudge]

Re: Latest amendments/graphs... looks very interesting indeed but i'd be keen to learn what 'tinkering' has been applied - i mean if you have taken out fixtures which includes the top3 or bottom3 teams of a particular league or certain teams in a particular league then i'd have cause for a little concern, however, if 'tinkering' referred to the range of odds used in the sample then that would okay [i think]. anyway, keep us informed as to how this continues as i think you have grabbed the attention of much of PL ;)

[Guest madmick]

a useful lesson I think all here could do well to study the shape of the graphs. Notice the small profit after about 20 bets. At this stage most of us would be looking at it thinking, nothing special yet, wait and see. After another 30 or so the bank is down to about 30% of its starting value and I'd imagine many of us would have bailed out. However several seasons later and the bank is 300% of starting value. Lessons (for me at least): 1) Back test thoroughly over many bets 2) Conditional on success on (1), keep faith with the system for at least a few hundred bets 3) Manage your money carefully! 5) Don't be too hasty to dismiss other peoples systems!!

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Re: Latest amendments/graphs... No hand-crafting by removing particular fixtures or teams, I assure you. I got my head around factoring in previous game sequences for the home team on top of the away team sequences that were already in the system. I was surprised how this extra selection smoothed out the growth of the imaginary pot. I'm fairly convinced that the system is onto something, especially considering the number of bets and the time span invloved. The system, I think, is basically identifying where the away team has a decent chance of pulling off the away win. If the bookies price it so they declare them as not really having a chance then the value, obviously, appears. If the bookies shrink the odds to try and compensate for this then it will simply drop out of the systems selection criteria. Nice! Also, this price adjustment would also create an opportunity for others on the HOME bet, where I guess most punters concentrate on?

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Some stats from the system Some of the 'without the Premiership' system figures: Starting pot: 100 units Level stake bets: 5 units Number of bets: 426 Average odds: 3.97 Winning bets: 123 Strike Rate: 28.9% Average odds of winning bets: 3.92 Current pot: 383.25 units As mentioned previously, these odds are from a single bookie. Taking better odds elsewhere could increase the return substantially!

[Guest MIWAYNE]

System Selections for 30/11/2002 According to the new parameters of the system, these are the 2 bets highlighted for this weekend: Odds quoted are ladbrokes, betbrain average and betbrain best. I'll continue to proof on the ladbrokes odds for my purposes, but it will be interesting to see the difference available elsewhere. 1. N Forest v IPSWICH (3.40) (3.32) (3.95) 2. Oxford v LINCOLN (3.20) (3.43) (3.75) Also, I'm working on getting the rest of Joe's data into the system to see how these parameters work on others leagues around Europe. If successfull it should provide many more bets per week. I'll let you know. Regards, Wayne.

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Results None from 2. Both going down by a single goal. Is it the kiss of death by mentioning it on the forum? Is it going to be the longest losing run since the data has been proofed? Still, a couple of winners on the bounce will make a big difference. Also, I'm a little annoyed that I didn't try the current parameters before posting the selections on the first note as only 1 of the games would have been selected!

[Guest the arb]

Re: Results 2 weeks, 6 selections, 6 losses. As I said on my previous post, this is one hell of a system if it shows a profit. Exactly how big does my bank have to be?!

[Guest the arb]

Re: Results A friend once showed me a 'fool-proof' system on roulette. Red and Black numbers. If you toss a coin, what are the odds on it falling heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads? Slim huh? As soon as he saw a sequence of red, red, red, red, red, red he placed £100 on black. If it still came down red, he doubled up to £200 etc. He works in a supermarket now. Kevin Pullen can show you systems where you can make a 25p profit over 10 years with a £100,000 stake. My point? In the real world there are no systems, just discipline, knowledge, value and a lot of luck. I wish you well this and promise not to post anymore negative comments. God knows I love the bookies getting beat.

[Guest paulybhoy]

Arb Totally agree with your last paragraph. THERE IS no system that on its own merits works. Though adding that product knowledge combined with hard work, discipline, commitment and adaptability applied to anything is a system in itself, Just what bookmakers or any successful business do! More of this system you follow the luckier you will get. Almost everyone has a great idea, could be writing a book, a script for a film, or think they can sing etc.., but about .01% actually follow it through with the work involved and yet most are amazed when they see someone actually has and cry 'I thought of that'

Like a parachute the mind works best when open

[Guest madmick]

no systems? how do you define it? Any successful tipster, and there are many, do not just rely on luck, they apply their knowledge and skill in a defined and focussed way to identify value, either implicitly or explicitly. That application is a system by my definition. The bookmakers have a system to produce the odds, albeit with a safety factor built in. Someone who is able to do the bookies job 'better' than they are by more than the overround can make a profit. Bear in mind that the bookies also seek to balance their liability in general, ie. they are risk-averse rather than profit-maximising. This allows a window for 'systems', defined as I have done above.

[Guest MIWAYNE]

Latest I take your points that it is unlikely that a completely automatic system will beat the bookie consistently, but the data and graphs I have posted previously in this thread are accurate across 5 seasons(!) so I will persist in posting what the system highlights (at least for a short while) and see how it goes. I was hoping the system could redeem itself this weekend, but the reduced English league fixtures has resulted in NO SELECTION(S). Note: I'm still working on getting the system to back-proof over tens of thousands of games from other leagues around europe so I'm hoping this amount of data can prove or disprove the parameters. I hope you don't mind me continuing this.

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Latest Absolutely not. Please keep it going.

[Guest Dave Mardell]

Re: Latest My own opinion of acceptable profits for a year is it should be at LEAST 10% <= 6% - Better of sticking your money in the bank 7-9% - Not much improvement over bank rates and I don't feel the risk involved justifies the extra 2% However 10% is double bank interest rates and therefore I feel is worth the risk involved. just my thoughts...

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Latest Not really a valid comparison Dave. To make 6% on £1000 in the bank I actually have to possess £1000 to deposit. I make £60. Lets say I have a system that can make 6%. I start with a bank of £100 and have 10 £5 bets every week, my turnover is £50 per week. After 20 weeks I will have gambled £1000 and made £60. Original capital £100, profit £60 = 60% of original capital. Not quite the same. On that basis I think any profit you can make from gambling is worthwhile.

[Guest Dave Mardell]

Re: Latest Ah is ee what you mean. Sorry I though you guys were talking about making 5% over the whole year, but clearly I miss understood. This whole yield thing still confuses me :)

[Guest MIWAYNE]

System Selections for 14/12/2002 Odds quoted, again, are ladbrokes, betbrain average and betbrain best. 7. Derby v Brighton (5.00) (5.04) (6.20) 8. Reading v Sheff Utd (3.75) (3.36) (3.75) 9. Plymouth v Swindon (3.75) (3.64) (4.00)