Osesame Posted January 24, 2003 Share Posted January 24, 2003 Are you thinking of a system for selecting your bets? If you are then my own guidelines might help. Rather than looking for winners look for those LESS LIKELY TO LOSE. If you have an idea do not try it out on the current season's results,your mind might be saying this happens a lot because in the last few weeks you have seen it a lot,in other words you are probably biassed.You must keep an open mind at all costs.I suggest you go back as far as you think that the results would be meaningful for the current season.Test your idea and if it looks good then test it on the current results. Should you find anomolies e.g this works better at the beginning and/or end of a season.....every time there are euro matches it goes wrong....and lots more,have a look and see if you can find a reason. Try taking matches out of the system if a team has been promoted to and/or demoted to a league to see if this improves your results. Test your idea for each individual league separately as the values or method of selection you are using will probably need adjustment. Some systems tend to drift, starting well at the beginning of a season and fading towards the end. If this is so from your back testing does it need adjusting as the season progresses or is there a cut off point at which to stop.The reverse scenario can of course occur.Most systems I have looked at tend to have a fall off in performance from early November to the end of January. Look for the teams that are most affecting your system in a negative way and discard them. Be very watchful when there is a manager change for any team!!!!! I hope this helps those of you with systemsalready running and those who may be contemplating a new idea. I will wish you "good fortune" in you endeavours, not "good luck" as the goal of any system should be to reduce the element of luck to a minimum. Osesame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted January 24, 2003 Share Posted January 24, 2003 Re: systems ...some thoughts Once your system is in place then all you need is a suitable staking plan, and stick to it. Patience and not betting on a whim is key there. Whopper73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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