Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct

[bowles10]

Just typing the word C-h-e-l-t-e-n-h-a-m gives me goosebumps. My favourite jumps track has a 2 day meeting & notes will be taken for my Cheltenham watch which starts from tomorrow (yes, i start studying for the festival 6 months prior). You cannot beat course form round this place, so i will be looking at what horses act on the course & which dont.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct ITS BACK..... Wey Hey :D :D

[stewartd14]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct Out all day tomorrow and will miss the 1st Chelters of the season, but I see some nice bets. 3.30 Donaldson A very competitive heat, but I like this Donaldson for a few reasons. His form has been interesting across here in Britain as he showed very little before dotting up in a Maiden hurdle at Fakenham. Next time out was an interesting run as well, and that time a certain AP McCoy took the ride. If I remember correctly, that was his only ride of the day, and it duly did the business. I think that showed that McCoy quite liked the horse, and that looks to be backed up today. Donaldson is in off a weight of just 10-4, McCoys lowest, yet he is still riding it. Looks a big pointer to me, and should run well. It is a very competitive race, and I am not a big fan of Jonjo's but this looks interesting. Hopefully a nice EW price. I do like a couple of others, but will hopefully have time to post them in the morning. :ok

[Trotter]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct 4.05 Handicap chase Feature race of day one with a big field Should be great viewing !.............:nana Not sure of a winner, but I don't fancy the forecast favourite, Joe Lively He's a cracking horse all right, tough, loves the course........but my recollection is that he's a tiny little thing compared to your average 3 mile chaser. After a terrific novice season which saw him win at Grade One level I reckon he could suffer from having to race from the topweight in any competitive handicap race. Not just carrying the weight........in big fields he could get knocked around a bit, being a little 'un........ Seems to be at his best in very small fields where he can get in front and run on his own. Not sure he'll get his own way in big field handicaps One to avoid until they can find a five runner conditions event for him....:spank

[mowgli77]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct One of my favourite horses from last year runs here today - Ring The Boss, watching brief for me only, fantastic over hurdles but now over jumps again and expected to be short price.

[stewartd14]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct 5.50 Kings Forest A good race full of exciting hurdlers, but I am going to oppose all those with Cheltenham bumper form etc, and side with Emma Lavelles horse EW. The yard are in cracking form and that was backed up yesterday when The Jolly Spoofer came home. She has had a very impressive 4 wins and 2 places from her last 9 runners, a 44% strike rate. Anyway, onto the horse. I was first drawn to this horse whne I realised that the bumper he ran in at Fairyhouse was won by the Noel Meade trained Pandorama, who has won since. This prompted me to look at the race and I found that the form is excellent. Both the 2nd, 4th and 5th have all gone on to win bumpers, and the 3rd has had 2 good place efforts. These Irish bumpers are never easy, and this oen could be one to keep an eyo on for the trainer in form. EW 4.05 Noir Et Vert No time for a write up, but liked his horse last season, and good trainer and jockey. :hope:ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct Yep, Stew .. after all my doubts last night, I woke up this morning and I see the it different way. I like his chances ;) 5.50 - King's Forest E/W I like the form of this one. Comes from a bumper, where all the horses around him have won and placed since. Stable is in cracking form and Ema has her horses ready for their debuts. Tough race, but this one is a big price and potentially a very good thing. 14/1 @ Bet365, Stan James

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct 3.30 Chord 25/1 var bog 5 pts e.w Should be a good race this. Donaldson very much respected down the weights and I suppose Shore Thing who has a line with it and hasnt stopped going forward since a defeat. However Chord could be a touch big at 25/1 here. This was a half useful handicapper on the flat with stoute despite the odd quirk. He took his time to get going over hurdles but he did eventually. He finished second twice behind a useful sort in songe. Indeed songe was good enough to be fourth at the TH at the fest. The hunt. second also looks good because other horses behind include norman the great who was good enough to split binocular and crack away jack earlier and even the half decent light yield so that is solid enough formlines. After that it was very highly tried and couldnt cope. At chelt. it was up with the very strong pace in the fred winter and unsuprisingly faded and then grade 1 at aintree was always going to be asking quite a lot. On his return this year he showed up pretty well but one cant help that a slightly easier ride. he went very quick early on that day, probably too quick really and was passed by an impressive winner who reopposes today. it may not be that easy to overcome that form today, noble alan was impressive enough on that ocassion but he does get an 8 pound pull for 8 lengths and he does have an extra 5 pounds off with a claimer on board. Also its possible that even though he first run back was satisfactory enough, it may not have been at his absolute best due to his strong pace so that offers hope too to get closer to noble alan. As i say for a couple of reasons might just have been ignored a bit too much. 4.05 Ardaghey 7/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Considered Parsons Legacy for a while as he could be fairly handicaped still and also goes fairly well fresh but I can see him running on again in a horse who might just need even further today. So going for another who has a great record fresh and fto in the season and thats Ardaghey who absolutely loves this meeting, last two times he has won on it. Just looking at his record fresh throughout his whole career, he won on debut, then beat the listener after a 3 month break in the same season, didnt win fto the next season as he ran into star de mohasion but he did win fto the following season at this meet and then of course last year he did exactly the same win at the meet. So clearly not only does he go well fresh (record seems to go downhill a bit after that) but he also relishes cheltenham. His mark has dropped back to 135, one pound lower than what it was at this same time last year and history suggests another bold bid on the cards for a yard that do so well at this time of the year, just like this horse.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct ok, here goes 2.55 Decided to leave the top 2 in the market to perhaps hand the race to Quattrocentro trained by Peter Bowen who will appreciate the trip & ground conditions & has a fitness advantage over the 2 market leaders. Exeter form always counts double for Cheltenham & a 2nd place finish there in a big field has been noted as a plus. Won well LTO at Southwell & could be the value in the race. Currently 8/1 chance. 3.30 What looks like a typical Chelt handicap hurdle to solve, the key here is the trainers that normally do well in these type of race, NIgel Twiston Davies won this last year with Platin Grounds & the plus side is, you know his horses are fit, he has winners here & he targets these races. Distiller ran creditably in the hot race at Chepstow at the weekend behind Crack away jack, out of the weights that day, it can go close off a 3lb higher mark than its best win. 18/1 with Skybet EW. 4.05 Keep an eye on this race for the future big chases here as most of these will beback to fight another day. Ardaghey has won at this meeting in last 2 years, so why not again, N T-D again will have it spot on & is a live EW chance in this. Joe Lively was most people's favourite up & coming chaser last year as with its tiny frame just seemed to keep going & going. It blew out at the big festivals but had been on the go from August that year with 5 chase successes. Goes well fresh but trainers lack of form is a concern. 8lb lower than best win gives it another EW squeak. Noir Et Vert is worth keeping an eye on for later in the season & this may be an ante post bet for me if this runs well today, Ferdy Murphy horses dont get going until December so not on my list for today. Jonjo o'Neill has his horses in great form & those that saw De Soto finally winning yesterday know that he is back on form after a disastrous season last year with a number of viruses. King of Angels is not one of his stars & surprised to see it lining up today after failing at the course before, would have to improve a bundle but McCoy knows his way round here. Fit from recent races. Nirvana Swing has improved so much since joining Mr S Smith from Nicholls yard. She has a host of winners normally in October & is one of my HOT trainers to look out for in chases. EW on this one. Out of those 4, i would go with Ardaghey making it 3 years on the trot with Nirvana Swing the value EW bet but McCoys mount worries me also! 5.50 Easy one this one with Phillip Hobbs winning this race 4 times out of last 6, Johnson isnt my favourite jock, but whatever this horse does, keep it on th elist for Cheltenham as Hobbs normally targets the races here for his best hurdlers. Cockney Trucker is its name! 3/1 best price.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4.05 Cheltenham
Selection	Joe Lively (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	17/10/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>Paddy Power @ 9.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Admirable servant who had a wonderful season last year when winning the Feltham on King George day at Kempton aswell as 4 other wins in good novice company. The summer break has to have done him the world of good considering the amount of racing he had and if he is back on song for his return, he should run a big race. He has won twice from 4 starts at Cheltenham and looks great value at 8/1 for another big run today.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4.05 Cheltenham
Selection	Dr Hart (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	17/10/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 26.00 (Back)
Reasoning	My main fancy is Joe Lively for this race but im playing a small saver on Brendan Powells' Dr Hart. Beaten 8L bys Oslot when last seen at the end of last season but stayed on well that day and shapes fully as an out and out stayer. I just think he will appreciate this stamina test and the booking of Timmy Murphy really catches the eye. 25/1 is a massive price for an unexposed chaser and he could run well.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct typicaly difficult day at Cheltenham, thought King of Angels had it in the bag but its earlier exploits took its toll but it was a good priced 2nd place. Cockney trucker just failed by about a length going down in 3rd. Well done to Mowgli for Ring the boss & Jack for Joe LIvely adv EW. Ring the boss will be in my list this season.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct Razor Royale was very unlucky. Made one error early and then at the 2nd last just landed bad. After a bit of schooling will be spot on next time. Was a very good hurdler and why not an even better chaser. Should go in the notebooks as well. Will be winning a race surely. Watch out for Hobbs though!! I think last season is well behind now and his stable is ready to fire. King's Forest travelled well, but found the hill too tough. This was hist first run though and it was a hot race. I would put it in the notebook for next time. Travelled well and made some errors, which cost him. With better round of jumping and all this experiene a much improved run will follow.

[stewartd14]

Re: Cheltenham Fri 17th Oct Cant believe the price of Donaldson and Noir et Vert. Ridiculous prices and if I had known they would be close to that, I would have looked elsewhere. As it was, I had to place the bets at SP, so had to stick with it. Happy with the Lavelle runner though, ran well for a long way as mileni says and finished 5th. That Fairyouse bumper will be a decent race IMO and I will be keeping an eye on it. :ok