Cesarewitch - ante-post

[fintron]

anybody seen anything they fancy for Saturday? I was reading up on Sporting Life about Missoula and trainer Sue Smith was saying she's hoping her horse gets a good draw. Seems wierd when the race is over 2 m 2f but all of the last ten winners were drawn in 17 or higher and the field sizes are usually around 30 runners!

[fintron]

Re: Cesarewitch - ante-post Now the field has been whittled down to 36 runners and the draw has been made it should be a little easier to find a winner (still tricky with 36 runners though :lol). Missoula has been drawn in 9 so I'm willing to leave that alone now and concentrate on those drawn in the top half. The favourite Askar Tau has been dealt a poor draw in stall 14. If he was to win he would be breaking several trends anyway as only one fav has won this in the past ten years and although the race is open to fillies and colts aged 3 yo and upwards, only one 3 yo has won in the last decade. The trends I've found in the past ten winners:

• Only 1/10 3 yo winner
• OR range of last ten winners 83-104 with 8/10 rated between 83-95
• Jumps trainers have done well with the likes of Pipe, Henderson, Hobbs and Martin successful. Mark Johnston trained winners in 1998 and 2004 so could be a flat trainer to look out for.
• 7/10 carried less than 9-0
• Price range of winners 7/1-16/1
• Only one fav won in last ten years
• All of last ten winners were drawn in stall 17 or higher

In the racing press this week quite a few trainers said they were keeping their fingers crossed for a good draw so that insight, coupled with the historical trends and the fact Askar Tau has drifted so alarmingly since the draw was made, means I'm quite happy to cross a line through any runner rated in the bottom half of the draw. If we exclude those outside the OR range of 83-95 we eliminate six runners from the bottom of the handicap (I think two may have been reserves anyway) and can discount Bulwark, Ajaan and Wicked Daze from the top end of the weights. Looking at the profile of the past winners highlights the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle and the Ascot Stakes at Ascot as two decent trials for the this race. Past Cesarewitch winners Leg Spinner (2007), Landing Light (2003) and Heros Fatal (2000) all participated in both of those races but failed to win either before success at Newmarket. Sergeant Cecil didn't compete in the Ascot Stakes but did with the Northumberland plate in the year of his success (2005). None of Land 'n Stars, Talenti, Daraheem or Swan Queen have contested either of those races this year so if they too are ignored then we are left with a final shortlist of Gee Dee Nen, Bogside Theatre, Arc Bleu, Liberate, Mudawin and Mamlook. I've looked into the form of these runners more closely, but when you try and work out who is weighted to reverse placings with who things start to get messy. For example, Gee Dee Nen was behind Bogside Theatre in the Northumberland plate but when they met in the Carvill Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap (a race won by Leg Spinner and a race in which 2002 Cesarewitch winner Miss Fara came second) Gee Dee Nen ran out the winner with Bogside Theatre a head second. However, both of those rivals were behind Arc Bleu in the Northumberland plate and even at the revised weights things look like they could be tight again. In the end I've decided not to get too bogged down with the intricacies of pounds and lengths and have looked to see which horse looks the classiest in my opinion. In terms of prize money, Arc Bleu has won at least three times more prize money than the other runners that have made the final shortlist, undoubtedly helped by his win in the Northumberland plate. However, that win proves he has the class to take this race and he has one of the best jockeys in the business in Johnny Murtagh on his back. Murtagh rode for Tony Martin last year when Leg Spinner scooped the prize, and with Paddypower offering 10/1 he is my choice for this valuable handicap.

[macmuck]

Re: Cesarewitch - ante-post You look like you put alot of hard work into this, so wish you the best of luck! I'll have a few bob on.