Fintron's AW Thread

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.20 Lingfield

Mutamaasek has fitness to prove after a 254-day break and Polish Power has looked in the grips of the handicapper lately. The unexposed Luca Cumani horse Falcativ could go well after winning last time out at Kempton. However, he is up 6lbs in the handicap, is up in grade here and is likely to be quite short in the betting (13/8). With that in mind my alternative selection is War of the Roses, who has an incredible record around here. Over 12-13f his form is 271112212. He is yet to win at class 4 level but was only beaten by half a length in this grade last time. He is up 2 lbs here but connections enlist the help of 3 lb claimer Jack Mitchell so he is now only 1 lb higher than when he won over CD last month. Another big run could again be on the cards. Ladbrokes go 5/1 so the suggested bet is 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Dont have much time but Onenightinlisboln is overpriced in the next at Lingfield. (4.20). Has ran well here before off similar sort of mark and there could be value in opposing the odds on fav. Sky bet go 14/1, suggested bet 10 pts win.

[chrislloyd2001uk]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread why not 5pts e/w matey with the fav being so short?

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I've been studying my betting success over the past few months and painstakingly listed every bet I'd made. Looking at my results, I would have made more money had I backed all selections win only instead of going EW, so I'm ditching the EW bets for the time being! It wouldn't have mattered on that one though as it was unplaced in the end. Final bet for today: 4.40 Kempton Hallingdal is a course and distance winner and has been running well recently over shorter. Her win came at class 5 level but here form over 7f at Lingfield and here previously suggest she is capable of making the step up in class. The current price of 5/2 is offputting though. An each-way alternative could be Will He Wish. He's an old boy now at the grand old age of 12, but was running consistently on the all-weather before being put away in February. He's had a pipeopener recently at Wolverhampton when, although last of 12, he had excuses. He was drawn widest of all and was always going to have needed that run after a lengthy break. His poor placing could have been a blessing in disguise though as the handicapper has dropped him 4 lbs for this now. His last win came off 81 and he's 2 lbs lower now here so could be in with a shout. I took 8's last night with Paddypower but larger available now. 10 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Results Update (ouch) I had two bets yesterday and although I was happy with how War of the Roses and Will He Wish Ran, with both running into the places, the rushed selection of Onenightinlisbon was a flop and won't be added to the notebook. I thought his price was tempting but he appears to have been 14/1 for a reason. 21/10 Louphole (6th) -10 21/10 Wibbadune (1st) +30 22/10 Oat Cuisine (2nd) -10 22/10 Lindoro (4th) -10 22/10 Swiss Art (8th) -10 22/10 Swiss Art/Lindoro EW double -2 23/10 Hallings Overture (6th) -10 23/10 Kritzia (11th) -10 23/10 Wikaala (11th) -10 24/10 Alexander Huricane (1st) +35 24/10 Tricast: Alex Hurr, Without Prej, Gap Princess -1 25/10 Bobby Soxer (4th) -10 27/10 War of the Roses (2nd) -10 27/10 Onenightinlisbon (7th) -10 27/10 Will He Wish (3rd) -10 Bets to date: 33 Strike Rate: 5/33 (15 %) Total pts staked: 313 Total pts returned: 230.75 Profit/loss: -82.25 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Coda Agency 5/1 (15/10/08) Most backed winner: Blue Tomato (5/2 advised into 2/1 SP) Longest winning run: 1 (16/10/08 - 16/10/08) Longest losing run: 7 (22/10/08 - 23/10/08) :$ Notebook Update War of the Roses ran a decent race yesterday before being picked off late by Jamie Spencer. He was mugged of the win at the death and although vulnerable to other progressive types in the future, looks a solid each-way bet over 12-12f again at Lingfield. His record over those trips is quite amazing, and he's finished in the first two on each of his last ten starts now. Will He Wish blew away a few web cobwebs when trailing home last at Wolv two runs ago, but he had a poor draw and that outing seemed to have sharpened him up for his run last night. He's 12 now, but ran well last night to take 3rd, despite drifting out before the off, and that may have put him spot on for his next AW outing. He certainly seems to have dropped to a decent mark and he could be ready to strike soon.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.50 Southwell Persian Peril was unlucky when beaten by half a length here last time out by Ellmau. He jostled with the 80-rated winner in the closing stages and knowing he goes well here from two tries now he could be in with a shout dropping in grade. He runs off 75 again today, only 3 lbs higher than his last winning mark, but the front pair pulled 8 lengths clear of the field last time, with the three immediately behind rated in the 80's. Today, with this being a class 5 contest, the highest rated rival he faces is rated 72, and Persian Peril could thus confirm his superiority in this small field of 8. Bet 365 (BOG) go 15/8 so the suggested bet is 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Dvinsky - enjoys racing round here and has recorded half of his ten career victories at Kempton. Although he has never won over 7f here before he has won over that trip at Lingfield and Chepstow. He confirmed he is in good heart when winning here over shorter two weeks ago and to be fair, he wasn't exactly dealt a good draw that day. Today he will burst from stall 13, which is ideal, and racing off just a 3 lb higher mark in the same grade he could have each-way claims at 14/1 (Sporting Bet). Suggested bet 5 pts EW (1/4 odds on 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Dvinksy placed yesterday and was backed into 9/1. As 14/1 was advised, the bet made a +12.5 pts profit. Still got a large deficit to make up though. There are a couple of decent races at Lingfield today. The 2.40 is a listed race over a mile and contains Fragrancy, however, I haven't had much luck betting in 8f races in the past couple of months so I'm ducking that one. The 3.10 is also a listed race, this time over 1m 5f, and I've decided to get stuck into that instead. 3.10 Lingfield 11 runners line up for this fillies race and there are a couple of listed regulars in the line up. Ronaldsay has the highest official rating in the field (105) and is a consistent type up against her own sex. She's finished in the frame on three of her last four starts at this level, at Newbury, Windsor and Ascot, and trainer Richard Hannon reported the addition of headgear a success in the latter race. He left it off for her last run and she was a well beaten 5th at Newmarket, but interestingly, the headgear is back on today. Ryan Moore is booked and she should run her race, but there is the danger there could just be one of two too good again. Les Fazzini won here on her debut over shorter but has been stepped up to a mile and a quarter and a mile and a half on her last two runs, both at listed level. At Newbury she was 4th to Suzi's Decision but was behind Ronaldsay. At Goodwood last time out she was third to Crystal Capella and looked one paced inside the final furlong of that 12f trip. Bearing that in mind, perhaps she is best watched here. Samira Gold represents Luca Cumani and connections will be hoping she can recapture some of the spark that saw her collect two listed prizes last season. She was unplaced in two Group races earlier in the season so was dropped back into listed company last time out at Yarmouth. She finished 4th, which was fair enough, but again, she isn't certain to stay this far as her best efforts have come over a mile and a quarter. Silver Mitzva warrants a second look as one of Marco Botti's, and is a previous polytrack winner and is more certain to stay than some of these (has won up to 12f before). She was well behind Ronaldsay at Ascot last time out though, and maybe stepping up to this level is one step too far given that she hasn't won beyond class 5 handicaps just yet. Susie May has course expert George Baker in the saddle and goes for Gary Moore, who has a good record around here. However, Ronaldsay is weighted to confirm her superiority over here based on Ascot form and she has not won beyond class 6 handicap before, so others appeal more. Michael Jarvis has his string in good order and sends out Armure here. His filly is unbeaten in three previous all-weather appearances (all at Kempton) but ran into a few handy sorts last time out at Newmarket when 7th behind Sir Michael Stoute's progressive Crystal Capella and St Leger second and Group 3 winner Unsung Heroine. She is 4 lbs wrong with Ronaldsay based upon official ratings though and even though her class 3 handicap win at Kempton means she is proven at a higher level than a lot of these, I don't really think she is worth 4/1. Elmaleeha hasn't won beyond maidens and is another that has something to find with Ronaldsay based on Ascot form. Mischief Making has a long break to overcome and Mount Lavinia, although certain to stay, has been notching up wins in lower grade handicaps and may find this much tougher. Silk Affair hasn't won outside of maiden company either, and the market ranks her as the outsider here. Bearing all that in mind I think Storyland may be worth a punt here. William Haggas' filly looks progressive and bids for the hat-trick under Kirsty Milczarek. The jockey clearly knows how to get the best out of her and with Milczarek having a good grasp of what is required to win here(26-149) I think they could be primed for another big run. Storyland likes to be held up and that running style is ideal for a course like Lingfield. Although she is rated 13 lbs inferior to Ronaldsay and only actually receives 11 lbs, there is the possibility that Storyland could actually be better than her rating of 92 indicates and whereas Ronaldsay's progression seems to have levelled off, Storyland could still be one on the upgrade. She has slammed John Gosden's well regarded filly Montbretia twice in her last two runs, despite not having a clear run last time out and in my opinion is well worth a crack at a listed race, even though she hasn't yet won outside of handicaps. Bet 365 go 4/1 and although 9/2 is available elsewhere, Bet 365 offer 1/4 odds on 3 places, as opposed to 1/5 with other firms. Suggested bet 5 pts EW on Storyland @ 4/1 Bet 365 (BOG).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Storyland was unplaced earlier so that is a -10 pt loss for the day. My bets for tonight at Great Leighs 6.50 This doesn't look the best race ever and three runners have been withdrawn but Veloso should be up to winning it. He was a course and distance winner two runs ago and was only beaten by three quarters of a length in an apprentice claimer last time out at Wolverhampton. According to BHA figures he is best off of all of these bar Zuwaar, but Ian Williams' gelding has something to prove after two dissapointing defeats in handicaps and when 4th in a claimer. 8/11 Paddypower, 10 pts win 7.50 Precision Break could be up to landing this. Paul Cole's colt has proven himself on polytrack with wins at Wolverhampton and Kempton and although he was well beaten at Southwell last time out, it may have been that that slower surface didn't suit. His main rival could be Graylyn Ruby, who is on the hat-trick, however, Precision Break perhaps has less improvement to find as he is proven at class 4 level and only 3 lbs above his last winning mark whereas his opponent steps up in class and also has a 7 lb increase in the handicap to contend with. Top AW jockey Neil Callan takes the ride and with Keene's Day franking the form of his Kempton win he is my bet here at 11/4 (Paddypower), 10 pts win 8.20 Derek Shaw gets his fair share of winners on dirt and Pride of Northcare looks the pick of the duo he sends out in this race tonight. Darren Williams' mount has won his last two starts on polytrack, at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, and is up 6 lbs here. He is also up in class and both of his recent wins came at a lower level, but his last top-speed rating eclipses all of his rivals LTO and he could continue to improve. Wrenginham is a course and distance winner and races off the same mark as when scoring LTO. He is up in grade but has finished in the front two on all four starts here and must be respected. Pride of Northcare 5/2 Sporting Bet, 10 pts win Wrengingham 4/1 Sporting Bet, 10 pts win 1 pt straight forecast PoN to beat Wreng @ 8.37 (Bet 365) 1 pt SF Wreng to beat PoN @ 10.59 (Bet 365) 9.20 Classic Blue has been in fair enough form but whenever he has been upped to class 5 level in the past he has disappointed and despite being raised only 5 lbs in the handicap since that win I'm passing over in favour of top-weight Strike Force. The latter was looking for the hat-trick last time out at Wolverhampton but raced wide on the bend and couldn't get close to the leaders. He likes to come from off the pace and in this smaller field of only 6 runners he may be able to avoid similar traffic problems here. He's only 4 lbs above his last winning mark and has ran respectably at class 5 level in the past. 7/2 Paddypower, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Yesterday was the best ever day since I started the thread, with 3 out of the 4 chosen races at Great Leighs nailed with the added bonus of a winning a straight forecast in the 8.20. :) Two bets for tonight at Wolverhampton. 6.50 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Wolverhampton<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

A lot of the focus in this race has been on Willie Haggas' Rainbow Seeker and Celtic Rebel, who finished 1st and 2nd over this trip at Kempton last time out. Rainbow Seeker races in the same grade here, under a penalty, and could go well again, but is short in the betting (6/4 fav). Celtic Rebel (4/1) runs off the same mark and is 12 lbs better off than last time as he looks to avenge a 2.25 length defeat that day. However, I think the other one in the race that should be shorter in the betting is Agnes Love. Last time out at Kempton she raced about 8 horses wide coming round the home bend and did ever so well to finish just half a length off the winner. David Probert's mount drops in grade tonight and has proved her effectiveness on polytrack with a previous win at Kempton. Although she is 8 lbs above her last winning mark, Probert's claim should give her every chance of scoring here given her remarkable effort last time out.

She may not have been suited by the soft ground when trailing home last at Goodwood and if that run is ignored her last three AW runs look pretty solid. In between the aforementioned runs she finished 3rd at Lingfield, 1.25 lengths behind 68-rated Azwa and 83 rated Olynard, when running under a penalty, and she is only 2 lbs higher than that today. 12/1 Bet 365 (EW ¼ odds 3 places) 5 pts EW.

8.20 Wolverhampton

On the day Quantum of Solace is released, Just Bond has to be an obvious bet here. His record over course and distance is quite remarkable; six course and distance wins is enough to scare the living daylights out of any opponent. To be honest, I have doubts about this jockey and he isn't the best around, but given Just Bond's course record I think he is still worth a bet here. His last CD victory came just over a year ago but he confirmed he remains in good heart recently when scoring at this level at Haydock off a 6 lb lower mark. Although he disappointed LTO at Redcar that was in a competitive race and at a much higher level than this and he is worth another shot off his revised mark now back on the AW. 11/4i nsurebet on 2 places, 10 pts with Bet 365.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I'm off to Southwell tomorrow so putting my thoughts up early. I won't be able to take bookies prices as I won't be around tomorrow 1.25 Of those with previous racecourse experience Majestic Bull appears to have the strongest form claims. He has experience on the fibresand having finished fourth on his debut here over shorter and he could build upon that for local trainer Eoghan O’Neill. Alan McCabe does well here but Shy Prophet may be better over shorter distances even if this faster surface may be more suitable than that he tackled on his debut at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Leicester. Mark Johnston’s runners have to be respected running on the all-weather and Telling Stories was entitled to need her debut run, when she was slowly away and ran green. She may be the one to chase Majestic Bull home.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

2.00 A poor race indeed and none standout. Very few have any recent form to their name and there are even doubts over last time out winner, Ice Bellini, who must improve to score in this handicap having won a maiden last time. Oberlin has done little since going handicapping, Gayanula has a break to overcome and Captain Mainwaring and Well Informed have failed to build on the form of previous wins. Amouretta hasn’t even hinted at ability yet and Little Firecracker isn’t certain to stay this far. With that in mind my tentative pick here is Beautiful Lady. Trainer Paul Cole has a decent record here (11-55) and his filly is back down to a winning mark after a couple of disappointing efforts recently off 5 lb higher marks. She is a half-sister to Bukit Tinggi and is the daughter of a former Arc winner so makes some appeal on breeding. She may have had excuses for a couple of poor recent efforts due to an unsuitable trip and because of heavy going.

2.30 This is one of the better races on the card although Maslak has been withdrawn. Dunaskin has been mixing flat and hurdles racing and finished a fair 1–length second over hurdles recently at Bangor. He has disappointed on his last two flat runs but heavy ground may not necessarily have suited and he has a fair piece of form from earlier in the season when 1.5 lengths off Tranquil Tiger in a listed race at Pontefract. This is only a class 3 race but he doesn’t look the most consistent and is unproven on this surface. The one that appeals more is Tarkheena Prince, who may have found the trip a little excessive at Pontefract last time out when beaten into third. He has acted well on softish ground on turf so although making his fibresand debut, should in theory handle this slow surface. He is only 6 lbs above his last winning mark (proven winner in this grade) and he is preferred over the likes of Polish Power and Hurlingham, who may need some help from the handicapper. The danger could be Mark Johnston’s Hunting Country, who is proven at this level, but is passed over because he may possibly prefer a quicker surface.

3.00 This looks a decent little sprint and the one to focus on could be Beat the Bell who chases the four-timer for Alan Bailey. He makes his fibresand debut but has been in great form on the polytrack and is in the form of his life. Off only a 4 lb higher mark than when registering his win at this level last time out, he looks the strongest contender. Fol Hollow was narrowly beaten at Doncaster last time out but hasn’t won for a while and has never raced on the AW before. He seems on a decent mark though. The other one that could go well at a bigger price is Aegean Dancer. Bryan Smart’s gelding has an excellent season last year but has been in the grips of the handicapper for much of the present campaign. However, he is sliding down the handicap and with proven ability on this surface could be a decent each way bet at a big price. Tartatarufata and Luscivious can go well here and are closely matched on a piece of form here from May, and Pawan is another that is capable of landing some place money.

3.35 Hurricane Harriet was turned out at Newmarket today and would have claims if those exertions haven’t taken too much out of her. She is 8 lbs above her last winning mark but has won over this trip and at this level before and should handle the going. Thunderous Applause may want further and Another Genepi seems to have regressed since leaving Kevin Ryan et al and has been struggling of late. Feeling Fresh has failed to follow up winning form from Haydock and the two with the strongest claims could be Steel Blue, who won a pair of handicaps earlier in the season and may have found conditions a little too testing since. David Probert’s 5 lb claim should enable him to get involved but the one to beat may be Cool Sands, who won going away at Kempton recently but shaped as though a drop back in trip may suit when weakening over 7f here last time out. He is infact a previous course and distance winner, and is only 6 lbs higher than when scoring in that aforementioned Kempton race. He looks the safest option. 4.05

The final race on the card looks an ideal opportunity for Elusive Warrior to defy a penalty and notch up a fifth course and distance win. He has won when turned out quickly in the past and can do so again here. Dancing Deano is a fellow course and distance winner but has done his winning at a lower level. Smarty Socks took advantage of a sliding mark to score at Leicester recently, but her all-weather form isn’t as strong as her turf form and she doesn’t look very consistent anyway

Advised bets 2.30 - Tarkheena Prince (30 % stake win, 3.40 betfair, 70% stake place 1.77 betfair) 3.00 - Beat the Bell (50 % stake win, 5.4 betfair, 50 % stake place 1.75 betfair) 3.00 - Aegean Dancer (30 % stake win, 12.5 betfair, 70 % stake 2.72 betfair) 4.05 - Elusive Warrior (100 % stake 2.72 betfair)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Forgot to mention above but 100 % of stake = 10 pts, e.g. staking 3 pts win on Tarkheena Prince and 7 pts place etc.

[BHop]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Forgot to mention above but 100 % of stake = 10 pts' date=' e.g. staking 3 pts win on Tarkheena Prince and 7 pts place etc.[/quote'] hi fin, just looking through the form there and I noticed that elusive warrior was beaten 5 lengths by dancing deano on 3rd june and deano has a further pull in the weights (its effectively the same with elusive warrior giving deano 5 pounds but the 6 pound penalty means deano has a 6 pound more advantage) so elusive warrior looks up against it against him. do you think elusive warrior has simply improved too much? interested to hear more as you have a maximum stake on him. big fan of your posts and blog mate :nana

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

hi fin, just looking through the form there and I noticed that elusive warrior was beaten 5 lengths by dancing deano on 3rd june and deano has a further pull in the weights (its effectively the same with elusive warrior giving deano 5 pounds but the 6 pound penalty means deano has a 6 pound more advantage) so elusive warrior looks up against it against him. do you think elusive warrior has simply improved too much? interested to hear more as you have a maximum stake on him. big fan of your posts and blog mate :nana

Cheers BHop. I must admit, I missed that piece of form you mention, but fancied Elusive Warrior more based on last time out form, as he won well, and had shown more in class 5 company than Dancing Deano. That said, I did reverse forecast the pair. That final race was a complete joke with one of the horses escaping and the race being delayed whilst the backup ambulance got back to the track (Lance Betts was taken off to hospital in the other). I don't think it affected the end result although Elusive Warrior like a few others was a bit iffy loading into the stalls and drifted out slighly whilst late money came in for the eventual winner. It wasn't a great meeting and the weather was horrible but Paul Cole extended his good record here with a win in the maiden which defied the stats that suggested ones with previous racecourse experience were the ones to be on. It was a shame that Cole's Beautiful Lady trailed home last in the next race though. She looks complicated although did make some appeal on breeding and I took a small chance (although didnt advise) for the sake of interest whilst there. It was a terrible race though and although Probert did well and won convincingly on Ice Bellini I'm not reading too much into that result given the abysmal quality of the opposition. Spencer was the jockey of the meeting with a hat-trick and one thing that can be taken from the meeting was that Tarkeena Prince is on a good mark. He won well and could go well again over middle distances if continued to run on the polytrack. That was his fibresand debut but he is another of Swinbank's that took to riding on it ok. The result of the 5f sprint disappointed me as Beat the Bell unplaced, but hats off to Spencer, I don't like the guy but he made all on Hows She Cuttin in impressive fashion, setting a blistering pace and winning well. I did read something in the RP about him having a good record for Barron, I can't remember if it was on that horse or at Southwell in general, but he led from pillar to post and won well. Cool Sands won so I was happy with that and his claims were enhanced when Hurricane Harriet withdrew. As for the winner of the last race, he had slipped to a decent mark. I questioned his reliability in my write up but now he has recaptured some form and put back to back wins together for his trainer he may be worth following for Midgley in the next few weeks. He was rated 90 in Ireland last year and was 66 (taking into account penalty) today I think, so still has plenty in hand possibly. I'll update profit/loss tomorrow although an overall loss was made from todays bets.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.50 Wolverhampton <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

After reading Ginge's thread on how to make a 100 % book I decided to have a little go myself. My figures are a little off with the actual market but its the first time I've drawn up tissue prices and as Ginge says I'm sure it will get easier with time. Anyway, this is my reasoning for each horse and the final book I came up with last night......

Prince Noel – disappointed in an amateurs race at Doncaster last time out but prior to that Noel Wilson’s gelding had been running in class 4 races over course and distance and finished close on two occasions in recent months when beaten by a head by Bold Cross and a head by Internationaldebut. His record over course and distance is 1311222, and dropping back down to class 5 level today he should go close again despite a 3 lbs rise in his AW mark. He’s gone well for this jockey before and as top-weight warrants respect.

Ninth House is a former course and distance winner but his wins were back in March when he was with Nick Littmoden. He’s now with Ruth Carr and despite slipping down the weights, was well behind Prince Noel over CD last time out.

Avertis won on polytrack at Kempton and made a successful handicap debut in June. However, He’s been well beaten since in four subsequent runs. Elliwan showed promise in a couple of maidens for Mark Johnston but has struggled since going handicapping and since moving on to Mick Easterby’s yard. His past two efforts on polytrack have been questionable. Hawaana is yet to score in handicaps, makes his all-weather debut and is widely drawn, although of his <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Windsor second has been boosted by the winner and he drops 3 lbs in the handicap.

Pitbullhas been in good form in turf handicaps and apart from a poor effort at Pontefract last time out, was looking competitive at Warwick and in several races at Haydock. However, course form of 66756666 suggests he doesn’t go well on this surface.

Climate won a pair of course and distance claimers here in April and had won a handicap here too off 48 back in February. However, he has been well beaten in handicaps recently off his present mark and Prince Noel appeals more.

Aussie Blue makes his all-weather debut and would have claims based on his form of last year. He won at Pontefract off 59 this year which also gives him a slight chance (rated 60 here), but he’s coming down the handicap again as he’s winless in his last five and he’s been well beaten on all of those runs. He races from 2 lb out of the handicap

Stark Contrast handles this surface, as a win at Lingfield proves, and he finished a fair second on his first run here in August, albeit in an apprentices handicap. However, he finished 10/13 on his next run over CD, disappointed on his last run at Warwick, has never won above class 6 level and races from 4 lb out of the handicap.

My tissue prices are thus:

Prince Noel 9/4, Climate 7/1, Ninth House 17/2, Hawaana 8/1, Aussie Blue 8/1, Pitbull 12/1, Avertis 14/1, Stark Contrast 18/1, Elliwan 22/1.

When I first posted up my percentages I had Prince Noel down as an even money shot (50 %) and the rest of the field priced up at 10/1 or greater as I thought he looked the standout bet in the race. Afterwards I thought that I may have been fancying Prince Noel a little too much though given that there were only nine runners in the field and the true mathematical odds of each horse were 11.11 % (8/1), so I looked to take a few percent off the favourite and allocate it to a few others. In the end my book came to 99.98 % at the above prices. Comparing with the actual odds released by Bet 365, Prince Noel (+0.25 pt), Climate (+3 pt) and Ninth House (+1.5 pt) are highlighted as value beats which have ‘beaten’ my prices. Suggested Bets: From a value perspective I should form a backers book from the trio mentioned above. The actual bookmakers percentages (best odds avail) are 5/2 Prince Noel (Bet 365), 12/1 Climate (Skybet) and 12/1 Ninth House (Stan James) so adjusting the percentages 5/2 = 28.57 % 12/1 = 7.69 % So the combined percentages for the trio are 43.95 %. So 65 % of stake should go on Prince Noel (5/2 Bet 365) ....17.5 % of stake should go on Climate (12/1 Skybet) ....17.5 % of stake on Ninth House (12/1 SJ) If I am working to a 10 pts per race betting bank, as done previously then my stake on each horse (at the odds quoted above) is now as follows... Prince Noel 6.5 pts, Climate 1.75 pts, Ninth House 1.75 pts. If any of the trio win I win 22.75 pts, and have effectively taken 2.275 (around 5/4) for three against the field.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Results Update Tarkheena Prince was the only winner yesterday. Beat the bell almost claimed a place but Aegean Dancer failed to capitalise on his dropping mark and was unplaced too. Elusive Warrior was 3rd but because of cramped odds was backed win only. 28/10 Persian Peril (2nd) -10 29/10 Dvinsky (3rd) +12.5 30/10 Storyland (6th) -10 30/10 Veloso (1st) +7.27 30/10 Precision Break (1st) +27.50 30/10 Wreningham (1st) +40 30/10 Pride of Northcare (2nd) -10 30/10 Straight forecast+9.59 30/10 Straight forecast -1 30/10 Strike Force (4th) -10 31/10 Agnes Love (3rd) +10 31/10 Just Bond (8th) -10 2/11 Tarkheena Price (1st) +11.96 (-5 % commission on winnings) 2/11 Beat the Bell (4th) -10 2/11 Aegean Dancer (7th) -10 2/11 Elusive Warrior (3rd) -10 Bets to date: 49 Strike Rate: 12/49 (24 %) Total pts staked: 455 Total pts returned: 410.57 Profit/loss: -44.43 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Coda Agency 5/1 (15/10/08) Most backed winner: Wreningham (4/1 advised into 9/4 SP) Longest winning run: 3 (30/10/08) Longest losing run: 7 (22/10/08 - 23/10/08) Notebook Update Tarkheena Prince: made his fibresand debut at Southwell yesterday and won well under Jamie Spencer. Looked on a decent mark and beat a fair enough type in Dunaskin. Is proven up to 13f and now we know he handles the surface, could be worth following. How's She Cuttin: highlighted the importance of running from the front over the 5f sprint at Southwell yesterday with a majestic ride from Spencer. Led from pillar to post to show she's down to a decent mark. Lightly raced on the all-weather, her form suggests she is likely to be better suited to the sand than polytrack in the future and 5f seems her best trip. Smarty Socks: made it two from two yesterday with a win over 7f at Southwell, adding to his win at Leicester on soft ground last month. Was running off 90 in Ireland last year and won off 66 (accounting for 6 lb penalty) yesterday so could be worth keeping an eye on now he's found some consistency. Rainbow Seeker: won with a bit in hand at Wolverhampton on Friday, notching up a double after another easy win at Kempton the previous week. Stepped up in grade and won under a penalty on his last run so he keeps improving and could be ahead of the handicapper. Royal Amnesty: beat course and distance specialist Just Bond over 9f at Wolv on friday to take his record to six wins over that CD. Has won at Kempton before too and is versatile with regards to trip as has won up to a mile and a half before too. Only narrowly got up last time out in a class 4 handicap, but depending on how the handicapper reacts could win again, maybe if dropped in grade, as he's in good form at present. Bridgewater Boys: won a handicap at Lingfield on Thursday, to show he can still win outside of sellers. Has won at Wolv, South, Kemp and Ling in the past, and goes well over 10-12f. There should be plenty of chances to back him again over the winter. Mischief Making: caused an upset when winning a listed race at 33/1 last Thursday at Lingfield. Has a good record with a 50 % win rate from 8 starts, and has won at Ling, Wolv and Southwell. Has won over 11-13f and beat the reliable Ronadlsay and the improving Storyland that day. It will be interesting to see how her mark is affected and she could still have some mileage in AW handicaps. Veloso: won well in a seller, albeit at short odds, at Great Leighs last week. Has won at Wolv and Great Leighs now and undoubtedly acts on polytrack. Has won over 12-13f and could go in again in selling company, where anything with recent winning form has to be respected. Precision Break: hosed up at Great Leighs by 6 lengths last week, destroying the field with ease. Goes over 12f up to two miles and has won at Kempton and Wolverhampton too. May be hit hard after such an easy win last time but on top of his game and worth a look next time out. Wreningham: has appreciated the drop back in trip and has now scored twice over 5f at Great Leighs on his last two runs. He was stepped up in class last time and just held on from Pride of Northcare but is worth another check if raced over the same trip there next time out. Has tried 6f many times too and although often placed, sometimes finds one too good over that longer trip.

[BHop]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

hi fin, just looking through the form there and I noticed that elusive warrior was beaten 5 lengths by dancing deano on 3rd june and deano has a further pull in the weights (its effectively the same with elusive warrior giving deano 5 pounds but the 6 pound penalty means deano has a 6 pound more advantage) so elusive warrior looks up against it against him. do you think elusive warrior has simply improved too much? interested to hear more as you have a maximum stake on him. big fan of your posts and blog mate :nana

Just reading back over this and noticed a mistake. The 6 pound penalty is included in the weight given for the horse on the RP racecard so it was just a 5 pound advantage. Am I correct that when a horse carries a penalty (ex6), it is already added to it's weight. To see what I mean, check out the 250 at catterick tomorrow. Shotley Mac has (ex6) beside it's name and is down as carrying 9'1. Fin am I correct in saying that he is carrying 9'1 and not 9'7 (+ the ex6) Sorry to hijack the thread!

[SteveO]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Yes you are correct sir.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread This is something that I have often got mixed up in the past but yeah, Stevo O is spot on. The 6 lb penalty is given because the handicapper only assesses a horses rating once a week and if he hasn't had time to put a horses OR up for a win, has to penalise it somehow for its improvement. In that 2.50 Grazeon Gold Blend is top-weight and Shotley Mac is rated 9 lbs inferior based on his old rating of 70. However, as Shotley Mac has a 6 lb penalty on its back it is effectively rated 76 for this race until he is reassessed, and, as you say, on the RP site he will be listed as being rated 76 in the BHA column. So after the penalty has been taken into account ihe is rated 3 lbs inferior to Grazeon Gold Blend. When you check the weights Shotley Mac is carrying 9-1 as opposed to GGB's 9-4, which is correct.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Southwell 4/11/08 1.30 Paul Cole extended his impressive record here by saddling Aboukir to a maiden victory on Sunday to take his wins total to 12 from 57 runners (5 yr stats). Cole is doing really well with his juveniles this year and that winner took his record to 4-7 (+13.58) this year. He sends out Desert Strike today and has enlisted the help of David Probert to take off 5 lbs. He showed promise last time out when third at Windsor and although making his fibresand debut, needs a second look in the market purely because it is one of Cole's. 2.30 Paul Cole sends out Harlech Castle here who is looking for the hat-trick. David Probert's claims will help negate the effects of his 6 lb penalty, but he takes a leap in class here and must find more after beating rivals rated in the 60's on his last two runs. Irish Peal (a CD winner) and Temple of Thebes are closely matched based on CD form here a week ago, and the latter is weighted to get closer to Karl Burke's horse as he looks to avenege as 1.25 length defeat LTO. Both horses are stepping up in class here though and must find more, along with Pawan, who wasn't a million miles behind the pair that day. Top-weight Thebes is another with claims and is proven on the surface. He can't be dismissed running of 90 given a couple of decent efforts off similar marks since being switched to the turf and he drops in grade here. However, the one that could be up to landing this at a decent price is Richard Fahey's Mister Hardy. He bumped into the progressive Beat the Bell at Great Leighs last time and despite starting from a poor draw, only went down by a head. He is drawn wide again today in 9, but there doesn't seem to be much of a draw bias at Southwell and that may not matter so much this afternoon. He was competing in class 3 company that day up against an 86-rated winner and Lone Wolfe (3rd) was rated 87, more in line with the quality of opposition he will face today and he may have a bit less to prove than the other aforementioned runners. He is yet to run on fibresand but his turf form suggests he will appreciate a slow surface. 3.00 Steel City Boy caught the eye here on Sunday when running a decent second to Cool Sands. Ann Stokell's mount led for most of the race and travelled well over the 6f trip before being headed inside the final furlong and going down by half a length to James Given's runner. He is turned out quickly here and interesting in dropped back in trip. Given that he is dropped 1 lb here and races in the same grade again he looks a decent bet. Another front running display could see this course and distance winner involved, providing he breaks well at the start and can attempt to make all. Suggested Bets Desert Strike 11/8 Bet 365 (BOG) 10 pts win Mister Hardy 5/1 Paddypower (BOG) 5 pts EW (1/5, 3 places) Steel City Boy 11/2 Stan James (BOG) 5 pts EW (1/4, 3 places) :hope

[mccauley39]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Your taking ur a chance with ann stokwell in the saddle of steel city boy, i thought she should have won on sunday with a stronger ride, its like havin a one armed jock in the saddle , absolutely brutal she is, On another note watch out for Captain Rios on Southwell surface. i seem to remember a 1-2 with two Captains last week , Wotatombay beatin Captain Kallis, Myriola runs in the 1.00 race at 33/1

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Macauley, you may be right about Ann Stokell, it came close to landing place money though and was strong in the market all morning. Mister Hardy placed although a loss was made for the day. I've got two bets for today, and one is from the notebook, Beat the Bell 7.20 Kempton I've been following Beat The Bell for its last couple of races and although he disappointed at Southwell on Sunday that was a competitive looking race and Spencer gave Hows She Cuttin the ride of its life to take the honours. The rest of the jockeys probably thought she was going to slow down inside the final furlong but she just kept on all the way. Beat the Bell wasn't proven on fibresand though, and will appreciate a return to the faster surface here (Top Speed rating of 108 on polytrack recently). He also steps back up in trip and has notched up a hat-trick on his last three tries over 6f, with the last coming at this level. He is 4 lbs above his last winning mark and after only narrowly getting up last time, I'm prepared to give him one last go before I consider him in the grips of the handicapper. 5/1 Bet 365 5 pts EW (1/5 odds 3 places). 7.50 Kempton Probably the pick of races for the day on the flat/AW and Spanish Moon looks to have strong claims. Sir Michael Stoute has a good record here (16-83, 5 yrs) and his horse is proven over this trip having won a listed race at Windsor in August. He was stepped up into Group 3 company last time out in an Arc trial at Newbury and finished a short head behind Blue Monday (Illustrious Blue well back) and a reproduction of that effort should be enough to take this here. He has never tackled polytrack before but you have to respect this trainer's judgment and he has won on good/firm ground on turf to hint that he should be okay. Some of his opponents are better off at the weights based upon BHA ratings, but he seems to be going the right way and will be given a good ride from Ryan Moore. 10/3 Ladbrokes 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Great Leighs Izzibizzi comes into this race in good form and I feel she could still be ahead of the handicapper. Ed Dunlop's Medicean filly finished second behind Lady Rangali in a hot race at Ascot earlier in the year (winner rated 82) and the 4th, Insaaf and 6th Spell Caster have picked up handicaps since off 87 and 79 respectively. Izzibizzi is rated 83 for this. She proved he acts on polytrack with a win over this trip at Kempton and the form of that race looks solid, if not spectacular. Last time out she won a decent race at Newbury beating Just Like a Woman, who had previously won off 78, and had the useful Amber Queen back in 5th. The latter just picked up a handicap off 80 and has been retired by trainer Barry Bills to take up duties as a broodmare. Izzibizzi is now 4 lbs above her last winning mark but she drops in grade and with the excellent Chris Catlin on board she should be given a good ride. 10 pts win at SP.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Precision Break from the notebook runs tonight at 8.50 Wolverhampton. Bolted up last time out at Great Leighs, in great heart. 10 pts win at Evs SJ (BOG)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Smarty Socks and Dynamo Dane are both engaged at Doncaster tomorrow. Obviously I can't include them in this AW thread but it will be interesting to see how they get on as Smarty Socks is well in based on his old mark and Dynamo Dane gave Audemar a run for its money lto and can improve. Royal Amnesty is another from the notebook in action tomorrow night at Wolves but will decide tomorrow afternoon when I've more time for form study whether I will back that one.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Smarty Socks and Dynamo Dane are both engaged at Doncaster tomorrow. Obviously I can't include them in this AW thread but it will be interesting to see how they get on as Smarty Socks is well in based on his old mark and Dynamo Dane gave Audemar a run for its money lto and can improve. Royal Amnesty is another from the notebook in action tomorrow night at Wolves but will decide tomorrow afternoon when I've more time for form study whether I will back that one.

Dynamo Dane won at 10/1 at Doncaster, Smarty Socks was unp. 6.20 Wolv Somerset Falls could improve now handicapping. Didn't see out the trip last time here but has ran well enough over 7f before and could have a chance off 62. Had Mr Toshiwonka behind at Thirsk (won off 62 since), and was only a couple of lengths off stablemate Hieroglyph, who won off 71 in January (hasn't been seen since). 8/1 Hills BOG 1/5 odds 3 places. 5 pts EW 7.20 Wolv Royal Challenge (11/2 Bet 365) has been knocking on the door off this sort of mark and has finished in the first two on his last four starts over CD. I'm siding with the top-weight Peter's Storm too (10/1 Sporting Bet). Went well at Kempton lto when second and is a previous CD winner on other AW run. Is drawn low and at 10/1 is backable EW. Both 5 pts EW (1/5 odds 3 places for both). 9.20 Wolv Royal Amnesty is a selection from the notebook. He's up a few lbs in the handicap and steps up in class but comes here in good form and always seems to go well here. 9/4 Bet 365 BOG 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Results Update 3/11 Ninth House/Prince Noel/ Climate -10 4/11 Desert Strike (2nd) -10 4/11 Mister Hardy (3rd) (8/1 BOG) +3 4/11 Steel City Boy (4th) -10 5/11 Beat the Bell (2nd) - 0 5/11 Spanish Moon (1st) +33.33 6/11 Izzibizzi (4th) -10 7/11 Precision Break (1st) +10 8/11 - Meeting abandoned, all four bets void Bets to date: 57 Strike Rate: 15/57 (26 %) Total pts staked: 535 Total pts returned: 496.9 Profit/loss: -38.1 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Coda Agency 5/1 (15/10/08) Most backed winner: Wreningham (4/1 advised into 9/4 SP) Longest winning run: 3 (30/10/08) Longest losing run: 7 (22/10/08 - 23/10/08)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread When looking over the profit/loss calculations I've stumbled across an error. When I had done the calculations I have listed after each bet the profit from each bet, colour coded for profit and loss. I then listed figures for the total number of pts staked and the total number of pts returned since the thread was started. The mistake I made was that when totting up the total pts returned I was just adding up all the profits (green) listed next to each bet, and erroneously was not including the stake that was also returned as part of winning bets. I've made a proper spreadsheet to avoid any more problems in future and have gone back through the old profit/loss stats to amend as appropriate. S/R's and thread records remain unaltered though. Profit is -38.1 pts now the mistake has been rectified, which is a little bit more respectable than the -150 odd it was before. Just one bet for today. 4.30 Kempton Colangnik ran green on her debut at Doncaster but shaped with much more promise last time out at Lingfield, when finishing her race well. Her pedigree suggests she should act on the AW too, and with the benefit of those previous runs and a handy draw here she could take the prize for John Best. 5 pts EW at 13/2 Blue Sq (1/5 odds on 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.10 Wolverhampton Smalljohn looks well off at the weighs and could extend his decent record in plating company. He's a CD winner having slaughtered the field a week ago with a win by 5 lengths. That win took his record in claimers/sellers to 12211. A low draw will be a help again. 3.40 Wolverhampton Pride of Northcare was part of a winning forecast for the thread with Wreningham at Great Leighs last time out and was unlucky not to grind down the winner that day. He was up in grade for that run so having now ran well at class 5 level before, he is less of a gamble tomorrow. He is up 2 lbs for this run but is a CD winner and could go well again for Darren Williams. 4.40 Wolverhampton Quote from the notebook.....

Will He Wish blew away a few web cobwebs when trailing home last at Wolv two runs ago, but he had a poor draw and that outing seemed to have sharpened him up for his run last night. He's 12 now, but ran well last night to take 3rd, despite drifting out before the off, and that may have put him spot on for his next AW outing. He certainly seems to have dropped to a decent mark and he could be ready to strike soon.

The handicapper has dropped him another 2 lbs and he is 4 lb below his winning mark from January. He's racing in the same grade and although up in trip, is a course and distance winner. He looks like he is still interested even at his old age and at a tissue 10/1 he could be worth an EW bet. Prices to be confirmed in the morning.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Prices for today's three: Smalljohn - 7/4 Skybet - 10 pts win. Pride of Northcare - 10 pts insurebet on 3 places, 9/4 Bet 365 (stake back if 2nd or 3rd) Will He Wish - 9/1 Skybet 5 pts EW (1/4 odds on 3 places)