NIGEL2611 Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 The Rugby Union has been a bit quiet on this forum for a while now so I thought I would post some of my early thoughts on the upcoming European Rugby. Pool 1 - Clermont/Montauban/Munster/Sale Only one real question here can Sale beat Munster at home and get a bonus point at Thomond Park? They may well pull it off they certainly have a set of forwards to match Munster up front and as long as they don't allow themselves to get bullied by Munster in the forwards they may well prove to be a surprise in this group. They have begun the Premiership well and their defence is second to non which was underlined by their victory over Gloucester (London Irish being a slight blip on their radar!). The Sale backs are no mugs either in Charlie Hodgson they have a Fly Half who matches O'Gara in every department (even poor tackling!). As strange as it might sound there are a few rumblings of discontent coming from Munster regarding the recent performances of some of their stars, although they are winning in a couple of games they have made heavy weather of it. In their last game against Glasgow at home they were gifted a 7 point start, Glasgow missed an easy three points in front of the posts, missed a 2 point conversion and the result was 25-17 in favour of Munster! The two French teams in the group are a strange pair, Montauban are ordinary and are currently 10th out of 14 with a points difference of -50. They have played Toulouse at home 10-41 loss and Stade away 34-16 loss and when they have won it has been narrowly against lesser teams in the league. Clermont are a better side currently 5th, but with Clermont you are unsure who is going to turn up! One week they lose to Castre who are second from bottom and the next they go and beat Toulouse at home. They are definitely stronger at home and this could be they key to the group-who can get closet to Clermont on their own patch out of Sale & Munster. Value bet Sale on Betfair to win the Pool 6/1 and Tournament 40/1 (lay off at end of Pool qualification :hope) That is it for now, more to follow tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 7, 2008 Author Share Posted October 7, 2008 Re: Heineken European Rugby Cup Pool 2 - Castres/Edinburgh/Leinster/Wasps This again is a two horse race between Leinster & Wasps. Leinster have already faced Edinburgh this season in the Magners League at home winning 52-6. London Wasps have had a quiet start to the season but they did this last season and won the Guinness Premiership! The key to Wasps ability is their recent win at Leicester and if they reproduce this type of performance at Castres and Leinster away they should top this Pool. Leinster rely on the performance and kicking of Felipe Contepomi and as shown in previous years if you can get to Felipe and stop him from playing you negate Leinster's impressive Backs. Castres this season have started badly although they are expected to pick up their game they may well write of this European campaign in aid of trying to survive the drop in the French League. Edinburgh will play with a lot of passion & pride, they may cause an upset at Murrayfield but this is the best they can hope for. London Wasps to win Tournament 13/1 on Betfair (lay off after Pool stage :hope) Evens to win Pool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 7, 2008 Author Share Posted October 7, 2008 Re: Heineken European Rugby Cup Pool 3 Treviso/Ospreys/Leicester/Perpignan On paper this is a three way contest (sorry Treviso fans), taking that into account though I cannot take Ospreys seriously after last weekends game against Harlequins. The Ospreys had pretty much a 1st/Welsh team out against the Quins Academy team and only managed to beat them with a last minute try and conversion! You could argue in the forward set piece they were fully in control throughout but in the second half their backs just went to sleep and for a quality set of backs like they have this just cannot happen at this level. At half time they should of been out of sight, in the second half Quins upped their game and very nearly caught them out. Ospreys may well start off OK but they like the other Welsh teams will struggle due to their lack of quality through their Squad. To put things into perspective If Quins had played Leicester first team with the same team out at Welford Road they would have lost by at least 20-30 points and the same goes for Perpignan. I think the real battle will be between Leicester & Perpignan, Perpignan only defeats so far this season have been against the big two Stade Francais & Toulouse and bearing this in mind I cannot believe that the bookies rate the Ospreys better. Once again it will come down to who will fare better away and I think that Leicester's forwards are up to the task of mixing it with a strong Perpignan pack. Leicester to win Pool 6/4 Perpignan to win Pool 9/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 7, 2008 Author Share Posted October 7, 2008 Re: Heineken European Rugby Cup Pool 4 Scarlets/Stade Francais/Harlequins/Ulster Cannot really see much past Stade in this Pool, as much I would like to see my local side Quins do well Stade really are a class outfit. It may be tight for second between Scarlets & Quins, Quins possibly being the most improved side in the Premiership. Ulster currently are awful and may even be overtaken by Connacht in the Magners which is a worst disaster than the current economical climate! Stade Pool winners no bet really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 7, 2008 Author Share Posted October 7, 2008 Re: Heineken European Rugby Cup Pool 5 Bath/Glasgow/Newport/Toulouse This is similar to Pool 4 in as much as the French side are class! Bath will get the closest to Toulouse and may well sneak a best runners up place, both Bath and Toulouse should handle Newport & Glasgow easily. Glasgow did show a little more fight in their last match but after 5 games in the Magners they have a point difference of only +2 and Newport are -48. Bath on the other hand have quietly slipped into 1st place in the Premiership! No brainer Toulouse to win Pool-no bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 7, 2008 Author Share Posted October 7, 2008 Re: Heineken European Rugby Cup Pool 6 Biarritz/Cardiff/Gloucester/Calvisano Lets begin by saying thank you for coming Calvisano. Gloucester are favorites to win the Pool and if I am honest they should be, overall they have a very sound squad and with Olly Barkley beginning to show what he can do behind a solid pack they have the potential to challenge the top three in the competition. Especially if they can use the overlaps that they have been currently creating and then murdering in the Premiership! Also the Volcano (Lesley) has been stepping up his game after a quiet start to the season. Biarritz on the other hand are a club who are expected to be doing better, only 7th currently in the Top 14 this is not good enough by their own standards and a recent loss to their local rivals Dax has only compounded their agony. They did break a losing run by beating Montpellier comfortably but Montpellier are nothing special even though they are 6th in the Top 14. Cardiff like Biarritz are expected to perform in this competition but like the Ospreys their recent form is anything but convincing, they also struggled to beat a Sale second team and only did it by scoring a last minute try. Gloucester 16/1 on Betfair to win tournament (lay off after Pool stage :hope) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 7, 2008 Author Share Posted October 7, 2008 Re: Heineken European Rugby Cup Overall in the Heineken Cup you cannot really look any further than the top 3 of Stade Francais, Toulouse & Munster. From an English perspective I believe Gloucester & Leicester should be able to compete and as for the Welsh you should have a team qualify from the Pool stage but I cannot see who it is going to be. There maybe a few strange/shock results along the way but I believe the competition can only be spoiled by the ELV's and their interpretation by the Officials & Players. Like the Premiership it may take a couple of games for the teams to adjust to the Officials and how they play the game, especially around the Ruck & Maul area. In the Premiership we have already seen more penalties this season than in the whole of last season, so the penalty kickers may well be working overtime! With all this taken into account I still believe it will be a good spectacle and I for one will be enjoying every minute of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wong Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Re: Heineken European Rugby Cup Toulouse V Bath The French will be looking to go one better this season in the HC, their home form is very solid and they possess a big pack which will look to dominate Bath upfront, think Bath will be in for a tough afternoon and think the homeside will cover -8 h'cap no problem. Toulouse -8 @ 4/5 (bluesquare) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Re: Heineken European Rugby Cup Nice write ups Nigel. Your bets are looking good after round 1 (partic the Sale bet after their win in France) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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