Guest PoppyPower25 Posted March 5, 2003 Share Posted March 5, 2003 Like all punters we're always looking for a way to get one over the bookies - and god knows how many times we've ended up on ur arse. But i was just flicking around at odds for tonites prem games and couldnt find any bet that i would be at least 50% certain of (2/5 manu v leeds - show me a crazy man that would stake £50 on for £20 there). So i seen the odds on First booking in the game - the odds are basically the same for both games tonite Man u 2/1 Leeds 13/8 No booking 6/4 Boro 2/1 Newcastle 13/8 No Booking 6/4 So i was trying to find stats on games on bookings etc... just had a look at last weekends games and there was only 1 game in the premiership that didnt have a booking (boro v everton). So if you consider the teams playing and their disciplinary records and take in to account the ref's involved - i think this can be a pretty sure thing. All you have to do is pick the game thats got the highest chance of a fair few bookings (especially early on to calm the nerves :lol ) So with tonites 2 games on - the pick is surely man u V leeds. Alot of history between them and also the alan "i love been booked" smith factor. Then this surely has to be a good thing. If u take both of them at 2/1 and 13/8 and u stagger ur wager (ex. a £10 to £4.66 @ 2/1 and £5.34 @ 13/8 ; and as long as theres a booking in the game then ur £10 turns into £14 ) Ok then - has anyone tried this before????? Are the odds on no booking in a game always this generous as generous as 6/4???? Where can i gets me hands on stats on refs ???? Cheers lads - hopefully this thread will have some financial worth by 9.45pm tonite (the 1st trial)! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted March 5, 2003 Share Posted March 5, 2003 Re: FIRST BOOKING BETTING This is what you want: www.soccerbase.com/footba...MIval=refs Interesting topic, I wonder whether the bookies give much though to this or just apply a basic algorithm to their pricing? You might be on to something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PoppyPower25 Posted March 5, 2003 Share Posted March 5, 2003 Re: FIRST BOOKING BETTING "Interesting topic, I wonder whether the bookies give much though to this or just apply a basic algorithm to their pricing? " Joe - my thoughts aswell; just checked on powers (thats where i got my odds from above) and they have the first booking market available on the norwich v reading game tonite and also the same odds. Granted in the the instance of the old firm this wknd - id be rather surprised if the same odds are available. If so then all u have to do is dodge the game without a booking - like the hotspots in Strike it Lucky years ago... :rollin Anyone know of any other bookies that use this market??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PoppyPower25 Posted March 6, 2003 Share Posted March 6, 2003 Re: FIRST BOOKING BETTING Hummm cheers for the link Joe - Seen that Graham Poll is the man in black tonite - and you might find this link interesting www.soccerbase.com/footba...asonid=132 In Mister Poll's last 28 games he has never finished the 90mins without whipping out a few cards.:eek So then considering the game Man U v Leeds - i checked their last encounters - theres never been a game (i gave up after last 6) without a few bookings either. If i was to lay the chance of no booking on betfair id be going alot less than 1.40. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted March 6, 2003 Share Posted March 6, 2003 first bookings have had a brief look at this in the past. I think there might be something in it alright, but there is a fair bit of noise' in the data. I think you would need to include a bit more than just the bookings history and the ref - maybe current league positions, last results etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Weststander Posted March 6, 2003 Share Posted March 6, 2003 Re: first bookings Take a look at the cards/per foul awarded. Quite a lot of diff in the tolerance between diff refs. W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spreaditabout Posted March 6, 2003 Share Posted March 6, 2003 profit? Definate profit here IMO. For this game to go 90mins without a Booking is nigh on a real long-shot, even with Poll. Nice spot..get on I say, nearest thing to a perfect arb I've seen for ages:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Joe Mavis Posted March 6, 2003 Share Posted March 6, 2003 mellow yellow Alan Smith got booked job done well done mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PoppyPower25 Posted March 6, 2003 Share Posted March 6, 2003 Re: mellow yellow Yeah good old smithy just couldnt resist getting booked - I wont after event and say what i put on it, but it was certainly enuff to get this saturday off to liquidy start. Will start a bank for this at the wknd and see if there is a nice little future in this. With the old firm and arse v chelsea on saturday, sure i reckons they are nailed on. Good luck all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PoppyPower25 Posted March 6, 2003 Share Posted March 6, 2003 The End Humm looks like my new little system is going to die and early death. Powers odds for tonites game with hibs and the pars is a tad more different than last nites games. 5/4 hibs 8/13 pars and 14/1 no booking :eek :eek SO what happened there - Surely the odds on the 3 games which had this market werent all wrong? - or were they? I did stake a nice few quid on the game last nite - but surely not enuff to make them change it up by that much - did some1 else take advantage of it then? Well looks like its back to the drawing board then - As the saying goes - "i was a king for the day - but a fool for lifetime" :b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted March 7, 2003 Share Posted March 7, 2003 Re: The End Thought it seemed to good to be true looking at the stats and couldnt understand how the bookies would price it up like that- surely it was an error? but for all 3 games :eek Wanted to do to be a booking double on both Prem games but dont have a Paddy Power account and didnt have time to open one. Bet 365 were only offering odds for the Div 1 game when I looked. Will wait in anticipation to see the prices for the weekend Prem games but expect very short odds for there to be a booking considering SportingOdds had been offering 20/1 on no bookings in the Worthy Cup final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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