Newmarket 4/10/08

[fintron]

3.50 Cambridgeshire I've had a look through the recent winners to look for trends again. The market doesn’t seem to be very informative as winners have been thrown up ranging from Pipdreamer’s 5/1 last year to Spanish Don’s 100/1 in 2004. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

With regards to sex, it is not a race that has been monopolized by colts so I don’t think you can draw a line through any fillies or mares.

The age of seven of the past ten winners has been 4 or under, with all of the last ten winners aged 6 or less.

Two of the more interesting trends seem to be that nine of the last ten winners were officially rated under 100 and that 8/10 had recorded a win within their last three runs.

If we take the ratings and three figure form trends and apply to this years runners we are left with just seven runners, but Zero Tolerance and Unshakeable lie outside the age range of the past ten winners at 8 and 9 respectively, so they too could be chopped.

That leaves a final shortlist of Prince Kalamoun, Caravel, Swop, Nanton and Military Power, with the first two trained by previous Cambridgeshire winners Alan Swinbank and Sir Mark Prescott.

Looking into the form of each of those runners more closely I don’t think Nanton has particularly strong claims for the race. His last win came at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Doncaster in a small field and he has looked exposed in two runs since. As a result, Jim Goldie has enlisted the help of a 5 lb claimer for tomorrow, so it would appear he is a little too high in the weighs for now and I think he can be excluded.

Caravel recorded a five timer last year, winning off his current mark of 91 at Ballinrobe at the end of that sequence. Jockey JP Guillambert will hope for a better run after finishing 11^th of 12 on him at Warwick last year but the soft ground that day would not have helped. The main concern for Caravel, in my opinion, is that he hasn’t raced much this season. He was a promising 3^rd behind Kaateb and Gulf Express on his reappearance at Sandown and would have needed that run, but finished 6^th at Goodwood last time behind Eradicate, Watamu, Pinpoint and Gulf Express. The thing that strikes me about those two runs though is that they came over 10f, over which he is not proven, and it may possibly have been a canny attempt from his trainer to protect his rating – which has stayed at 91 since his last win. He will get 9f and fast ground will suit so he has to remain on the final shortlist in my opinion.

Swop has been in fair form for Luca Cumani and nearly followed up his win at Doncaster next time out at Goodwood, but found Yamal too good (beaten by a neck). He was stepped up to 10f last time out and Sandown and finished 3^rd behind Ask The Butler and Lang Shining and although he hasn’t yet won over the trip I don’t think it will be an issue and he does act on fast ground. Up just 2 lbs I think he too could be involved at the finish.

Prince Kalamoun comes into the race in decent form with three wins in his last five. Two of those have been in handicaps (the latest off a mark off 88) and he has improved since with a decent 4^th at Newbury last time out when carrying a penalty and finishing behind Presvis,

Rose Street

and Indian Days. Not only does he not have a penalty tomorrow, he has been eased 2 lbs in the handicap, so providing Spencer doesn’t give him too much to do he could be finishing strongly at the end.

Military Power is a horse that I backed when he ran at York back in June when he had Swinging Sixties (who won at Newmarket today) behind. He was raised 5 lbs to 88 for his next run at Goodwood, but was defeated by a neck by Indian Days. He was then raised up to his current mark of 93 for an outing at Great Leighs when he was 4^th and a couple of lengths off the 95-rated winner Yahrab. Although he didn’t look like winning that day I am hoping that he may not have been entirely happy with the surface, and that the switch back to turf here may help. He’s proven at this level and on fast ground and as a 3 year old there may still be a little bit of improvement left in him as he has conditions to suit. His trainer had a winner here on Thursday and he has raced well enough of fields up to 16 runners, whether he will be able to get into a decent early position from stall 15 in this field of 35 only time will tell. Not staking massive with it being such a competitive race but have staked as follows: Swop - 10/1 Lads 30 % stake Caravel - 16/1 Bet 365 (BOG) 20 % stake Military Power - 25/1 Ppower 20 % stake Prince Kalamoun - 10/1 Ppower 30 % stake

[bowles10]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 i will take a look at my trends later Fintron to see if they differ at all, but well done on the write up & good luck my thoughts about the meeting are (not around to post tomorrow) 2.10 I have it between the Noseda horse Kissing the camera & Stoutes horse My Superstar, both of whom have won 2yo events this week at the meeting. My Superstar repelled all comers on its latest run at Folkstone & no doubt similar tactics can be used here to try to snatch this race. Kissing the camera has raced twice at G3 level now & although no match for the likes of Rainbow view, can be thereabouts at this level. 2.45 Madness that a 2yo race is worth a million quid, but so be it! Imposing a derby entry from toutes yard will no doubt appreciate further & any change in the conditions should not be a problem. Weald PArk has ran here all 3 times finishing 2-1-2 & from stall 4 should give a decent account, definitely an e/w selection for me. 3.15 7 of the last 8 winners of this race have been aged 3, with the other aged 4. Unusual to see O'brien not on that winners list but he has won all before him this season & Halfway to heaven & Listen are 2 to be feared, which one to pick is a problem i cant fathom out. Spacious is the forgotten horse in the field & at 11/1EP, must be included EW. 3.50 Caravel is a very tentative EW selection from Prescotts yard. Only been out twice this season, last seen at Glorious Goodwood when 6th to Gulf Express. The horse ran up a sequence of 5 wins last season & was always going to struggle racing off 26lb higher than when it started last season. Its record over 9f is 1-1 so I am happy with the distance also.