Newmarket 4/10/08

[fintron]

3.50 Cambridgeshire I've had a look through the recent winners to look for trends again. The market doesn’t seem to be very informative as winners have been thrown up ranging from Pipdreamer’s 5/1 last year to Spanish Don’s 100/1 in 2004. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

With regards to sex, it is not a race that has been monopolized by colts so I don’t think you can draw a line through any fillies or mares.

The age of seven of the past ten winners has been 4 or under, with all of the last ten winners aged 6 or less.

Two of the more interesting trends seem to be that nine of the last ten winners were officially rated under 100 and that 8/10 had recorded a win within their last three runs.

If we take the ratings and three figure form trends and apply to this years runners we are left with just seven runners, but Zero Tolerance and Unshakeable lie outside the age range of the past ten winners at 8 and 9 respectively, so they too could be chopped.

That leaves a final shortlist of Prince Kalamoun, Caravel, Swop, Nanton and Military Power, with the first two trained by previous Cambridgeshire winners Alan Swinbank and Sir Mark Prescott.

Looking into the form of each of those runners more closely I don’t think Nanton has particularly strong claims for the race. His last win came at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Doncaster in a small field and he has looked exposed in two runs since. As a result, Jim Goldie has enlisted the help of a 5 lb claimer for tomorrow, so it would appear he is a little too high in the weighs for now and I think he can be excluded.

Caravel recorded a five timer last year, winning off his current mark of 91 at Ballinrobe at the end of that sequence. Jockey JP Guillambert will hope for a better run after finishing 11^th of 12 on him at Warwick last year but the soft ground that day would not have helped. The main concern for Caravel, in my opinion, is that he hasn’t raced much this season. He was a promising 3^rd behind Kaateb and Gulf Express on his reappearance at Sandown and would have needed that run, but finished 6^th at Goodwood last time behind Eradicate, Watamu, Pinpoint and Gulf Express. The thing that strikes me about those two runs though is that they came over 10f, over which he is not proven, and it may possibly have been a canny attempt from his trainer to protect his rating – which has stayed at 91 since his last win. He will get 9f and fast ground will suit so he has to remain on the final shortlist in my opinion.

Swop has been in fair form for Luca Cumani and nearly followed up his win at Doncaster next time out at Goodwood, but found Yamal too good (beaten by a neck). He was stepped up to 10f last time out and Sandown and finished 3^rd behind Ask The Butler and Lang Shining and although he hasn’t yet won over the trip I don’t think it will be an issue and he does act on fast ground. Up just 2 lbs I think he too could be involved at the finish.

Prince Kalamoun comes into the race in decent form with three wins in his last five. Two of those have been in handicaps (the latest off a mark off 88) and he has improved since with a decent 4^th at Newbury last time out when carrying a penalty and finishing behind Presvis,

Rose Street

and Indian Days. Not only does he not have a penalty tomorrow, he has been eased 2 lbs in the handicap, so providing Spencer doesn’t give him too much to do he could be finishing strongly at the end.

Military Power is a horse that I backed when he ran at York back in June when he had Swinging Sixties (who won at Newmarket today) behind. He was raised 5 lbs to 88 for his next run at Goodwood, but was defeated by a neck by Indian Days. He was then raised up to his current mark of 93 for an outing at Great Leighs when he was 4^th and a couple of lengths off the 95-rated winner Yahrab. Although he didn’t look like winning that day I am hoping that he may not have been entirely happy with the surface, and that the switch back to turf here may help. He’s proven at this level and on fast ground and as a 3 year old there may still be a little bit of improvement left in him as he has conditions to suit. His trainer had a winner here on Thursday and he has raced well enough of fields up to 16 runners, whether he will be able to get into a decent early position from stall 15 in this field of 35 only time will tell. Not staking massive with it being such a competitive race but have staked as follows: Swop - 10/1 Lads 30 % stake Caravel - 16/1 Bet 365 (BOG) 20 % stake Military Power - 25/1 Ppower 20 % stake Prince Kalamoun - 10/1 Ppower 30 % stake

[bowles10]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 i will take a look at my trends later Fintron to see if they differ at all, but well done on the write up & good luck my thoughts about the meeting are (not around to post tomorrow) 2.10 I have it between the Noseda horse Kissing the camera & Stoutes horse My Superstar, both of whom have won 2yo events this week at the meeting. My Superstar repelled all comers on its latest run at Folkstone & no doubt similar tactics can be used here to try to snatch this race. Kissing the camera has raced twice at G3 level now & although no match for the likes of Rainbow view, can be thereabouts at this level. 2.45 Madness that a 2yo race is worth a million quid, but so be it! Imposing a derby entry from toutes yard will no doubt appreciate further & any change in the conditions should not be a problem. Weald PArk has ran here all 3 times finishing 2-1-2 & from stall 4 should give a decent account, definitely an e/w selection for me. 3.15 7 of the last 8 winners of this race have been aged 3, with the other aged 4. Unusual to see O'brien not on that winners list but he has won all before him this season & Halfway to heaven & Listen are 2 to be feared, which one to pick is a problem i cant fathom out. Spacious is the forgotten horse in the field & at 11/1EP, must be included EW. 3.50 Caravel is a very tentative EW selection from Prescotts yard. Only been out twice this season, last seen at Glorious Goodwood when 6th to Gulf Express. The horse ran up a sequence of 5 wins last season & was always going to struggle racing off 26lb higher than when it started last season. Its record over 9f is 1-1 so I am happy with the distance also.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 CAMBRIDGESHIRE A win bet on CARAVEL @ 20 on BF This looks a plot horse from the Prescott yard to me. Has had a couple of runs this year both over 10f and did not seem to last home so the drop back to 9f looks ideal. This horse could turn out to be very decent and i think it will run a very big race with ideal conditions and would not be surprised to see a gamble on this horse. Would have been an e/w but i am having small e/w bets on three outsiders who i think have a squeak of getting into the places they are :- UNSHAKABLE 66/1~A horse you can never write of in this sort of race even though he is on a high mark. RAPTOR 100/1~I was disappointed with this horses run in the Ayr gold cup i think hes better than what hes shown for a while. I also like the young Jockey i think hes Australian. FISHINGFORCOMPLIMENTS 100/1~Robert Winston riding for Richard Fahey takes the eye. All a lot bigger on BF. Good Luck whatever you back.

[fintron]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 Newmarket 4.25

Calahonda – I made this filly my nap last month when she picked up a nursery handicap at Yarmouth off a mark of 72. I said that day that I thought she was well handicapped through a formline with The Magic of Rio, who had won two handicaps off 79 and 84. Calahonda thus looked to have decent claims off her rating that day and she just clung on for victory, beating Jamie Spencer’s mountLa Adelita by a short head. The handicapper has put her up 6 lbs for that win, but she could still be well handicapped. She steps up two classes here from that last win so she must find quite a bit of improvement, but she may sneak a place because only Dream In Waiting and Gal Aloud are the proven handicappers at this level. EW

[Aykay1]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 I'll take a look at the Cambridgeshire in a bit and if I spot anything I like i'll post it up. If not I'm going to jump on the Caravel bandwagon :ok Just this one for me so far......

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	210 Newmarket
Selection	Ahla Wasahl (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	04/10/2008
Bookmaker/Price	totesport @ 21.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Ahla Wasahl's trainer, Simcock, was in Trainer File in the RFO a few weeks back and his comments on this one stood out. He commented that she was a sure bet back in listed grade, suggesting that her 2 runs in group company the last twice have seen the horse aimed too high. She drops down past listed company today into an admittedly strong looking class 2 race. The RP's comments that the ground may be against him arent valid as, despite racing solely on soft ground thus far, the horse is expected to improve for better ground, which she gets today. She wasnt disgraced in group company, competitive on her penultimate start and eased last time out, there is no reason why she shouldnt at least be competitive in this grade, despite some similary unexposed horses from top stables. At 20/1 she's worth an each way bet.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 2.45 Liberation 5/2 var 15 pts Cry of Freedom 25/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Liberation is short but equally it was just so impressive lto that i cant ignore it whatsoever. The form of some of its earlier runs have had some boosts but it was nothing like its route lto, clearly fancied to do so and travelled and then went away like a really good horse against some strong types, certainly better than a nursery and diffiult to know how good he can be after a win like that. however another johnston runner that shouldnt be overlooked is cry of freedom. Afterall the trainer has had both of these and its been cry of freedom whos been running in the listed and group races, not liberation. Cry of Freedom won well on both first two starts, admittedly form of which hasnt quite worked out but win in listed race was visually decent and the smart runner back in the field actually has a line through secrecy (liberation's nursery victim) that puts cry of freedom in fairly in comparison. Ok lto on paper maybe seen as disappointing but its worth remembering that he went too quick that day, far too quick imo and fell away tamely which wasnt surprising, he could overturn that form given I think that wasnt his true running and with a jockey whos a good judge of pace. Both mine are drawn middle to high. 3.15 Visit 14/1 sky 7.5 pts e.w Darjina will have her fans and could be a class above but visit is a horse who I dont think we have seen the best of. Showed major promise as a two year including group win but never really recovered after having something in her sample when at york. However after a big break this year, she has bounced back to some form, ran well with penalty at san. and a bit unlucky not to catch the winner but then showed shes not sort of pace to win at 7f at glor. good and did so well given how I thought she needed at least a mile. Second choice according to moore but he has got it wrong before and this one I dont think we have seen the best of yet. 3.50 Yaddree 10/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places Of the bigger price fancies military power catches the eye as I thought it was desperately unlucky lto and in the end that has worked out perfectly to avoid a penalty and he has some solid handicap form prior to that. However my main fancy for this is yaddree from a yard whos runner are running so so well atm with winners all over the place. I like the straight forward attitude of this one, he will be bang up there over the far side where many of the principals lie and is set to go very close. He has run well in lots of the big field handicaps before and doen nothing but improve during the whole season. indeed through a line with fifteen love, is fairly treated for a narrow defeat earlier in the season. Plus clearly stays the trip now, that was doubt earlier but its not now after arguably a career best to beat cat junior who possibly didnt stay or didnt really want to win lto. Cat Junior is really classy horse who has form with htn, ravens pass and yaddree beat it fair and square and I dont think many of the others today, if any could do that. Officially well in today even with the penalty and bold bid expected. 5.00 Slugger O Toole 5/1 var bog 15 pts Backed this horse at the start of the year and was good to me notably in a hq race which was a bit messy and tactical but still won with some nice types behind. Since then hasnt always found things easy although I did note once over a mile he couldnt quit get home in one big field handicap. However then bounced back to form nicely when beating at decent field at don on soft ground so cleary ground no problem which could still be important if rain comes, that race has worked out well with the second, third and sixth all running well since. Up to a mark of 94 now which is 6 pounds higher than previously but I cant argue with that really given the way he won lto. 5.35 Secret Dancer 13/2 blu 7.5 pts e.w Im a bit concerned with the trainer who has been poor all season really but this one is still pretty unexposed, certainly in the context of this race and I wonder if he can fulfill promsie of earlier win fto when won well having travelled well too. Admittedly form of that has been a bit mixed although second and third are fair horses. After that things didnt go right in ladies race but lto in a warm handicap that may already be starting to work out finished well enough in a respectable sixth showing he goes on soft which could still be important having already won on good, ok could well be even quicker today and will be interesting to see how he gets on with it.

[RussP]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 5.35 Newmarket - KING SUPREME Being selective today and just backing the one from HQ. Waiting for the lucky last to back one of Hannon's 2, King Supreme. In really good form, placed in all 8 turf starts this term. Close 2nd lto when raised to this grade for the first time and has the extra 2f in its favour for todays run (2 runs over the trip, a win and a 2nd). Might also have the best of the draw. Well worth an EW at 16's with Stan James. EW

[devil tish]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08

CAMBRIDGESHIRE RAPTOR 100/1~I was disappointed with this horses run in the Ayr gold cup i think hes better than what hes shown for a while. I also like the young Jockey i think hes Australian. i agree ted. i did a bit of a write up on raptor for the ayr gold cup, and i am convinced this horse will be suited by todays 9f. i cant beleive that william hills have this at 150/1, and i have had a fiver each way. stranger things have happened:lol the last 150/1 shot i backed was barons pit in the 2003 golden jubilee at ascot. was gutted with an unlucky 3rd to choisir that day so fingers crossed for my tenner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mowgli77]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 Halfway To Heaven 3.15 Newmarket Already has Group 1 winning form against plenty of others unproven in this class. Has won over 8f and won over 10f and beaten Lush Lashes. Looking at the chart on RP site looks very progressive and still improving. 3 yr olds have a great record in this race and any O Brien horse in a group 1 race deserves respect this season so amazed to see this available at 8-1. Will take it each way although I am quite confident it can win this.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 Irish trainer D Wachman has a rare visit to these shores and has a runner in the first two races so small speculative bets a win on OASIS SUNSET 18/1 SB and e/w on fto HAPPY DAY 110W 22P on BF

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 I don't have much time as I am going to a kids swimming party...oh joy. So I'll just announce the one that I like. Charlie Fansbarns really interests me, even if he has been thrown in at the deep end with his handicap mark and I reckon he's in with a great shout if he gets this trip, which he should. Good luck with your selections guys.

[devil tish]

Re: Newmarket 4/10/08 5.00 Flipando 9/1 Laddies/Hills on a very attractive mark of 88, going ideal today. was some money about for him last week at ascot. a stiff 7f here could be ideal. ready for a big run at a very attractive price.