Guest Lardonio Posted March 1, 2003 Share Posted March 1, 2003 I'm not sure how popular it is to start a new draw challenge, but I'll take the chance. Challenge: To make profit from single draws betting as posed by Oddsagainst. Time period: Until losses are too huge, or 500 - 1000 bets Bookmaker: Best odds from bookies I use personally The first matches selected (all draws obviously): Norwich - Ipswich 3,35 (Centrebet) West Ham - Tottenham 3,25 (Paddy Power) Aston Villa - Birmingham 3,35 (Centrebet) Reggina - Udinese 3,10 (Expekt) Juventus - Inter 3,10 (Expekt) Piacenza - Como 3,60 (Blue Square) Real Betis - Sevilla 3,10 (Centrebet) Alaves - Real Madrid 3,40 (Centrebet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted March 3, 2003 Share Posted March 3, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge I will join you in this and I promise not to look at yours first! Good luck to you as we both know how up and down it can be. Does anyone else want to have a go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted March 3, 2003 Share Posted March 3, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge Not me obviously but the more the merrier. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 3, 2003 Share Posted March 3, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge Welcome to the challenge Osesame, and I think it's a wise idea not to look at my selections :-) They are awful :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted March 3, 2003 Share Posted March 3, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge Well I did think it would be a bit unfair to delete any that you had picked from my own selections ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 3, 2003 Share Posted March 3, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge Another pick today, update of weekend picks will come tomorrow (Aston Villa match not played yet): Boavista - Sporting Braga - odds 3,56 (Betfair after 5% (max) commission) I won't mention this again, but with all Betfair picks I will show odds with 5% commision on winnings deducted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted March 3, 2003 Share Posted March 3, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge Would it not be a better idea to have individual threads for each system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted March 3, 2003 Share Posted March 3, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge No, its a challenge and should be in one thread imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 4, 2003 Share Posted March 4, 2003 Status 4th of March Straight to hell, boy! :evil Status: 9 bets, no wins - 9 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Da Hannanah Posted March 4, 2003 Share Posted March 4, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge What are your selections criteria, mate? Most of those picks look sound enough, but 2 of them do look a bit odd to me (the Real game and the Birmingham derby). If you are going for 500 picks, missing the first 9 is just a drop in the ocean ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 4, 2003 Share Posted March 4, 2003 Re: Status 4th of March Criteria - well I have a basic form system that looks at history etc. but I combine it with gut feeling and research which can't really be defined in any way. This weekends picks were a bit rushed (it's not an excuse, I think they were OK picks) so I didn't have time to crunch the numbers like I wanted. Real were coming into form but has drawn a lot of matches this year and a derby (Birmingham) is nearly always a sound draw pick in my opinion. Anyway, todays selections: (Betfair odds, commision withdrawn) Wimbledon - Portsmouth 3,52 Blackpool - Barnsley 3,38 Plymouth - Peterborough 3,23 Bury - Bristol Rovers 3,61 Darlington - York 3,28 Exeter - Wrexham 3,28 Lincoln - Hartlepool 3,33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Da Hannanah Posted March 5, 2003 Share Posted March 5, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge With regard to debys, I recommend a bit of caution, mate. Some derbys are, as you say, very draw prone, but there are also some - like the Birmingham derby, the one in Munich or the Copenhagen derby (Brondby-FCK) which nearly never finish even. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 5, 2003 Share Posted March 5, 2003 Re: Status 5th of March Hey hey! This is going so fcuking great! 16 picks, 0 wins, - 16 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 7, 2003 Share Posted March 7, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge The disaster continues. Might be more picks after more research. Odds based on BetBase.info's highest odds. If anyone disagrees with this, please say so. (It's just a very fast way of shopping around for good odds, if I may say so) Celtic - Rangers - 3,40 Arsenal - Chelsea - 3,55 Borussia Mgladback - Borussia Dortmund - 3,46 Schalke 04 - Arminia Bielefeld - 4.00 Wolfsburg - Cottbus - 3,56 Roma - Lazio - 3,20 Como - Brescia - 3,15 Modena - Perugia - 3,15 More picks added Friday night: Lens - Nice - 3,40 Bradford - Crystal Palace - 3,40 Sedan - Guingamp - 3,25 Sheffield U - Leeds - 3,40 Atalanta - Parma - 3,10 Peterboro - Wigan - 3,50 Venezia - Lecce - 2,80 Tranmere - Crewe - 3,55 Status so far: 16 picks, 0 wins, - 16 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 10, 2003 Share Posted March 10, 2003 Nice round nearly doubling stakes! I finally made some good picks after rethinking my selection methods. Results from the weekend: Celtic - Rangers - 3,40 LOST >: Arsenal - Chelsea - 3,55 WON :D Borussia Mgladback - Borussia Dortmund - 3,46 LOST >: Schalke 04 - Arminia Bielefeld - 4.00 WON :D Wolfsburg - Cottbus - 3,56 LOST >: Roma - Lazio - 3,20 - WON :D Como - Brescia - 3,15 WON :D Modena - Perugia - 3,15 WON :D Lens - Nice - 3,40 WON :D Bradford - Crystal Palace - 3,40 LOST >: Sedan - Guingamp - 3,25 LOST >: Sheffield U - Leeds - 3,40 LOST >: Atalanta - Parma - 3,10 WON :D Peterboro - Wigan - 3,50 WON :D Venezia - Lecce - 2,80 WON :D Tranmere - Crewe - 3,55 LOST >: Total this weekend: 16 units staked, 29,85 won = + 13,85 units Status so far: 32 picks, 29,85 units won, = - 2,15 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 10, 2003 Share Posted March 10, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge 1 bet today. Best odds from betbase.info Duisburg - Frankfurt 3,30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted March 10, 2003 Share Posted March 10, 2003 Re: Nice round nearly doubling stakes! Re the odds selections. Personally I will only quote odds for my selections from bookmakers that I hold an account with or would be willing to open one with. It is all very well quoting great odds from ImightRipYouOff trading from Mars but if you would not risk your funds with them then how could you realise your proofed profits in reality? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 10, 2003 Share Posted March 10, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge Yeah, I have to agree. It was just a simple way of doing it. I'll start quoting the bookmaker for each bet now, and only use the ones I have an account with, or know are reliable. I hope you'll accept the odds posted for the weekend though, as I don't really want to check them again. In my defense I have to say that the odds quoted for the weekend all was available to my accounts and I also found a couple of better ones which I didn't select at Betfair. The odds for the bet today is from Unibet, whom I have an account with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted March 10, 2003 Share Posted March 10, 2003 Re: Nice round nearly doubling stakes! No problem there. I like to know that if I make z% testing this season then I can make z% for real next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 11, 2003 Share Posted March 11, 2003 Re: Lardonio draw challenge The bet lost tonight. Status so far: 33 picks, 29,85 units won, = - 3,15 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 11, 2003 Share Posted March 11, 2003 New picks 4 picks tonight Ajax - Valencia 3,20 (Premierbet) Arsenal - Roma - 3,56 (Betfair) Crystal Palace - Ipswich - 3,37 (Betfair) Gillingham - Wimbledon - 3,40 (Centrebet) :hat Status so far: 33 picks, 29,85 units won, = - 3,15 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 12, 2003 Share Posted March 12, 2003 4 matches, 4 winners! Ajax - Valencia 3,20 (Premierbet) - WON :D Arsenal - Roma - 3,56 (Betfair) - WON :D Crystal Palace - Ipswich - 3,37 (Betfair) - WON :D Gillingham - Wimbledon - 3,40 (Centrebet) - WON :D The day's draw betting returned 9.53 units. I'm in the black after an impressive comeback (if I may say so myself...) Status so far: 37 picks, 43,38 units won, = + 6,38 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 12, 2003 Share Posted March 12, 2003 New picks Wednesday Some new picks today. I hope the draw trend continues. Juventus - Deportivo - 3,30 (Bet365) Dortmund - Lokomotiv - 5,00 (Premierbet) Manchester U - Basel - 3,85 (Centrebet) Real Madrid - Milan - 4,00 (Ladbrokes) :hat Status so far: 37 picks, 43,38 units won, = + 6,38 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 13, 2003 Share Posted March 13, 2003 Results Juventus - Deportivo - 3,30 (Bet365) - LOST >: (overtime goal) Dortmund - Lokomotiv - 5,00 (Premierbet) - LOST >: Manchester U - Basel - 3,85 (Centrebet) - WON :D Real Madrid - Milan - 4,00 (Ladbrokes) - LOST >: Status so far: 41 picks, 47,23 units won, = + 6,23 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 13, 2003 Share Posted March 13, 2003 Thursday selections Malaga - Boavista - 3,50 (William Hill) Celtic - Liverpool - 3,25 (Paddy Power) Wasquehal - Guegnoun - 2,80 (Expekt) Lazio - Besiktas - 3,50 (Blue Square) :hat Status so far: 41 picks, 47,23 units won, = + 6,23 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 14, 2003 Share Posted March 14, 2003 I'm fairly happy with how this is coming along After a completely disastrous start on this project my betting average on the draws has been very high. I hope it stays high for the remainder of the project (a long time as we're aiming for 1000 bets!) Results yesterday: Malaga - Boavista - 3,50 (William Hill) - LOST >: Celtic - Liverpool - 3,25 (Paddy Power) - WON :D Wasquehal - Guegnoun - 2,80 (Expekt) - WON :D Lazio - Besiktas - 3,50 (Blue Square) - LOST >: Status so far: 45 picks -> 53,28 units won -> = + 8,28 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 14, 2003 Share Posted March 14, 2003 Re: Thursday selections Picks for weekend 15/16th (this might be updated later with more picks) Dortmund - Hannover - 3,90 (Betandwin) Hamburg - Schalke - 3,35 (Centrebet) Nurnberg - Hertha Berlin - 3,35 (Centrebet) Juventus - Modena - 5,00 (Bet365) Bologna - Udinese - 3,10 (Expekt) Chievo - Parma - 3,15 (Centrebet) Inter - Como - 5,00 (Bet365) Perugia - Roma - 3,05 (Centrebet) Leeds - Middlesborough - 3,40 (Centrebet) Sunderland - Bolton - 3,35 (Expekt) Blackburn - Arsenal - 3,55 (Expekt) Aston Villa - Manchester United - 3,60 (Expekt) Celtic - Rangers - 3,40 (Centrebet) Villareal - Real Madrid - 3,40 (Bet365) Osasuna - Mallorca - 3,25 (Expekt) Valladolid - Sevilla - 3,20 (Expekt) :hat Status so far: 45 picks -> 53,28 units won -> = + 8,28 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 17, 2003 Share Posted March 17, 2003 Status for weekend bets Not a good weekend this. Draws seem to come and go in waves. Dortmund - Hannover - 3,90 (Betandwin) - LOST >: Hamburg - Schalke - 3,35 (Centrebet) - LOST >: Nurnberg - Hertha Berlin - 3,35 (Centrebet) - LOST >: Juventus - Modena - 5,00 (Bet365) - LOST >: Bologna - Udinese - 3,10 (Expekt) - LOST >: Chievo - Parma - 3,15 (Centrebet) - LOST >: Inter - Como - 5,00 (Bet365) - LOST >: Perugia - Roma - 3,05 (Centrebet) - LOST >: Leeds - Middlesborough - 3,40 (Centrebet) - LOST >: Sunderland - Bolton - 3,35 (Expekt) - LOST >: Blackburn - Arsenal - 3,55 (Expekt) - LOST >: Aston Villa - Manchester United - 3,60 (Expekt) - LOST >: Celtic - Rangers - 3,40 (Centrebet) - LOST >: Villareal - Real Madrid - 3,40 (Bet365) - LOST >: Osasuna - Mallorca - 3,25 (Expekt) - WON :D Valladolid - Sevilla - 3,20 (Expekt) - WON :D Status so far: 61 picks -> 59,73 units won -> = - 1,27 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 18, 2003 Share Posted March 18, 2003 Champions League and Britain midweek So many uncertainties this week in Champions League it should be time for some draws. I'll try them all. I'm adding some British games. Odds from bookies I have accounts with and know are reliable. Lokomotiv Moskva - Real Madrid - 4,75 (Centrebet) Milan - Borussia Dortmund - 3,50 (Bet365) Deportivo Coruna - Man United - 3,60 (Centrebet) Basel - Juventus - 3,30 (Betandwin) Bayer Leverkusen - Inter - 3,90 (Betandwin) Newcastle - Barcelona - 3,85 (Centrebet) Roma - Ajax - 3,30 (Expekt) Valencia - Arsenal - 3,20 (Ladbrokes) Crystal Palace - Wimbledon - 3,40 (Centrebet) Preston - Walsall - 3,50 (Betandwin) Watford - Gillingham - 3,40 (Centrebet) Nottingham Forest - Derby - 3,50 (Centrebet) Chesterfield - Colchester - 3,40 (Centrebet) Luton - Oldham - 3,35 (Centrebet) Hull - Torquay - 3,40 (Centrebet) Boston - Darlington - 3,40 (Centrebet) :hat Status so far: 61 picks -> 59,73 units won -> = - 1,27 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted March 20, 2003 Share Posted March 20, 2003 Re: Champions League and Britain midweek Lokomotiv Moskva - Real Madrid - 4,75 (Centrebet) LOST >: Milan - Borussia Dortmund - 3,50 (Bet365) LOST >: Deportivo Coruna - Man United - 3,60 (Centrebet) LOST >: Basel - Juventus - 3,30 (Betandwin) LOST >: Bayer Leverkusen - Inter - 3,90 (Betandwin) LOST >: Newcastle - Barcelona - 3,85 (Centrebet) LOST >: Roma - Ajax - 3,30 (Expekt) WON :D Valencia - Arsenal - 3,20 (Ladbrokes) LOST >: Crystal Palace - Wimbledon - 3,40 (Centrebet) LOST >: Preston - Walsall - 3,50 (Betandwin) LOST >: Watford - Gillingham - 3,40 (Centrebet) LOST >: Nottingham Forest - Derby - 3,50 (Centrebet) LOST >: Chesterfield - Colchester - 3,40 (Centrebet) LOST >: Luton - Oldham - 3,35 (Centrebet) WON :D Hull - Torquay - 3,40 (Centrebet) WON :D Boston - Darlington - 3,40 (Centrebet) LOST >: Status so far: 77 picks -> 69,78 units won -> = - 7,22 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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