Guest Irish TW Posted March 10, 2003 Share Posted March 10, 2003 This may have been posted in some form or another in the past but I am almost certain that every bookmaker has their weekend prices finalised before say Wednesday. So by betting on a team who won in midweek (preferably to beat a team who lost in midweek) you are surely getting better value on some teams (I know not all, as one game doesn't make a good team) than you would have if their midweek game was taken into consideration. Two examples last w/end were SHEFF WED 7/1 away to Leicester: Result 1-1 Leicester drew in midweek while Sheff Wed beat Coventry 5-0. I backed Sheff Wed at 11/5 +1 goal with Ladbrokes. WIMBLEDON 5/2 (a) v Coventry: Result 2-2 The dons had beaten leaders Portsmouth in their midweek game while Coventry got hammered 5-1 by bottom of the table Sheff Wed. I backed Wimbledon here. I know that neither of these teams actually won but neither did they lose, and I'm confident that over time this system can make profits on the basis that the odds dont represent the true value. P.S. Can someone who knows please tell me just how long in advance are the midweek and weekend prices made out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted March 10, 2003 Share Posted March 10, 2003 Re: Weekend value in midweek winners The only way to test your theory is to proof a large number of bets that meet your selection criteria. It would certainly prove interesting and hopefully profitable as well. Are you game? Re the odds. You should find that midweek odds are available from Sunday with a few bookies. Weekend games from Sunday or Monday but if there are midweek games on you find that many bookies will wait until the games are over before pricing for the weekend. Best to monitor Betbrain and get a feel for it. I have even known Hills to delay weekend EPL prices until the midweek European games are played, at least for the teams involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Gordon Gecho Posted March 10, 2003 Share Posted March 10, 2003 Re: Weekend value in midweek winners Yeah I`ve looked at this as well, in fact I look forward to full midweek cards as there is bound to be some value for the weekend somewhere in the midweek results. However I tend to use the results just to confirm the form of a team. For example, recently I felt Bristol City were coming back to form from an horrendous run of results so I monitored their midweek game against Cambridge (LDV) and they won. Their price was too low for me, something like 4/7 from memory but it confirmed my thoughts about them and I took the 11/8 on offer for their weekend game (winner!). Again with Wimbledon winning against Portsmout in midweek and ending Readings good run the Sat before, the odds of 5/2 on them was far too appealling. Got to use every angle you can with the layers mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest SecondSight Posted March 11, 2003 Share Posted March 11, 2003 Re: Weekend value in midweek winners I used to believe the logic to bet on teams who won in midweek against teams that lost, thinking there must be value when odds were set and fixed on the Tuesday by the high street bookies. As a generalisation I don't believe this is a valid system now, because many teams seem to have a yo-yo form affect, they have a good result followed by a bad result, then a good result and so on. Its as though they try harder after a defeat, get a victory, relax and then suffer defeat. This psychology behind performance makes football different from say horse racing, unless anyone knows if horses that have psychologists! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted March 12, 2003 Share Posted March 12, 2003 re We have little enough advantages over the Bookies so any little advantage we do get should be capitalized upon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted March 12, 2003 Share Posted March 12, 2003 Re: re Indeed, so do you fancy testing your skill and judgement by proofing your selections here? It would be an interesting trial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted March 12, 2003 Share Posted March 12, 2003 Not so easy It would have to be decided exactly what teams to include in the system. At the moment I just pick them on the basis of having a gut feeling about them, rather than the other midweek winners. I cant include every team who won in midweek! A system would have to take account of league position, prices for both weekend and midweek games etc, etc. I'll give it a bit more thought and come up with a system soon, but often like I said already it is just gut feeling which sort of takes the system part away from it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted March 12, 2003 Share Posted March 12, 2003 Re: Not so easy on the contrary there is no need to reveal or even formulate explicitly the details of the system. You have already outlined the basis, just post the selections. Beforehand of course;) A lot of people will follow it with interest I guarantee you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted March 13, 2003 Share Posted March 13, 2003 Thanks madmick, thanks for the support, I'll study this weekends odds and post a selection soon, although there were not very many midweek games this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted March 21, 2003 Share Posted March 21, 2003 Selections posted here All stakes 1 unit 22/03/03 Swansea (won 2-0 away to Southend in midweek) (a) v Kidderminster (11/4 Ladbrokes) Result 2-2 >: Balance: -1.00 units 28/03/03 Gillingham (drew 2-2 away to Sheff Utd. in midweek) (h) v Ipswich (6/4 Ladbrokes) Result 1-3 >: Balance: -2.00 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted March 22, 2003 Share Posted March 22, 2003 Re: Thanks Good luck with this. Are you going to have a starting bank? Staking system? and keep a running record of your results? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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