Guest Stryker2003 Posted March 21, 2003 Share Posted March 21, 2003 Hello everyone, It seems to me a lot of people on here want to make a lot of money very quickly, yet we all know this generally dosn't happen. What got me thinking was £35 to a grand and the way most people were going about it. Trying to pick 2 maybe 3 or 4 selections a day er even a week. If you've been punting for a long time you realise your bank will go up and down and then eventually dissappear. Its greed. My thinking is 8 bets, an accumaltor. However spread over 6 to 12 months. I realise it will take a lot of restraint and patience. And a strong will, so no bets for interest or fun, just the 8 bets. I have done something similar before without realising, got to 5 bets thought it was easy and started to bet anything and everything. Bet selection is the key here. We all know we can't bet 8 winners in a week without a huge amount of luck. So to try and reduce the risk, the selection should mostly only have 2 possible outcomes, try and eliminate the draw that favours the bookie. For example, darts, golf play off, football team to proceed to next round, or sports where draws are unlikely boxing, rugby handicaps, cricket and tennis should be prominant amongst our selections.( And any other event where our chances are better than they should be) Horse racing has too many unpredictable factors esp national hunt, so we should try and avoid it, but still bear it in mind. Prices? I think it is not unreasonable to pick 8 winners between 4/6 and evens in 12 months. Concentrate on these for maximum profit and avoid 1/12 shots like Rangers to bump it up. When to bet? Only when your'e 100%. You should study every sport/event every day in order not to miss that good thing. If your'e 98% don't do it.You may only come up with 1 bet a month but it should be worth it and try not to bend the price boundaries as this will lead to failure. I'm going to start with £100 . 8 winners at evs gives me £25,600.00. Fairytale but achievable with patience. 8 winners at 4/6 is £5953.74. Not bad so a mix of prices gives us something in between. I would appreciate some feedback, some support and some criticism but also some selections to have a look at too. I will post my selections on here as and when and will let you know how i am doing. Thanks for your time Stryker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest WelshGarth Posted March 21, 2003 Share Posted March 21, 2003 Re: EIGHT STEPS TO A FORTUNE Hi Stryker It may be more appropriate to move this thread into Systems and Strategies. Why don't you have a look through the forum, there's a lot of advice and I'm sure you'll get more replies for your idea in there. I'll move this over in a while. Garth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stryker2003 Posted March 21, 2003 Share Posted March 21, 2003 Re: EIGHT STEPS TO A FORTUNE I had already typed most of it when i realized it would be better in there. lol.:b Cheers Garth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted March 21, 2003 Share Posted March 21, 2003 Re: EIGHT STEPS TO A FORTUNE I remember someone doing this a while ago. He did doubles or trebles of "bankers" at odds of about evens. He wanted to go from 50 to 50000 in 10 hits. I think he got to about 3500 then I'm not sure what happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stryker2003 Posted March 21, 2003 Share Posted March 21, 2003 Re: EIGHT STEPS TO A FORTUNE Right to kick us off. I've been looking forward to this fight for a while. Scott Harrison to beat Wayne McCullough, Sat 22nd of March. He's a steal at 4/5 with Stanley's, 8/11, 4/6 elsewhere. First off its a step up in class for the WBO featherweight defending his belt, but he wouldn't make it if didn't think he could do it. The 32 year old challenger has been in with the best and although he performed well he hasn't beat them. Some critics may point to McCullough's loss to Hamed on points over 4 years ago as to sign of his class, yes it was a good performance but Harrison is tipped to better Hamed (by me) and become one of the better pound for pound fighters around. Harrison is stepping down a division in terms of weight, and his bigger size and hard hitting will stop McCullough late on. Most critics think he should have gained more experience before fighting McCullough, but where as the latter is on the slide Harrison is going on to better things. I'm 100% sure this will get me off to a good start, and had this one in mind when posting the 8 steps. £100 win Stryker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paulybhoy Posted March 21, 2003 Share Posted March 21, 2003 Good luck Stryker Whatever you decide to do. My thoughts, I personally see little relevance or edge in any specific time period itself, I do see high risk in what you are going to attempt (regardless of period), based upon a belief that a 100% sure thing exists. I get your drift and how it looks on paper straight forward but, I would guess as the stakes got higher the less 100% you will feel, and certainly more so if the odds need to be around evens. That aside, The question I would ask first of someone who is trying to achieve the £50 to £1000 or similar is what exactly is the goal - If it is for a bit of fun, fair enough. If it is trying to proof ability to make a profit, then Do you stop gambling at the £1,000, if so fine, good luck and no further questions. However If no, then explain what really is the use of the exercise, these type of threads that use fluctuating and high % of bank to achieve a goal obviously impress a good few people and they are a good bit of fun, but I doubt any punter with experience of prolonged success would look to them as a system or take seriously; the only positive difference I see that distinguishes that approach from the crowd propping up the wall in the bookies is that at least they do have a target, albeit a temporary one. No one can argue that what your suggesting is not possible, it is more than possible to get 8 and more winners on the trot, but it is also very possible to lose 8 and more on the trot. If you are serious about trying to make money from sports betting, I believe that the very first lesson to learn is that losses are going to happen along the way and must be factored into any realistic profitable system of betting. Good luck though and if you stick to £100 it wont be presumably the end of the world, if you have a go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted March 21, 2003 Share Posted March 21, 2003 Re: Good luck Stryker I would agree with all of the last post. I fail to see why taking 12 months instead of 12 days will make the picks any surer. You might very well argue that it takes this long to wait for a pick to come along that you have this much confidence in. However, given that there are literally thousands of books available every week, provided you do your research, I see no reason why you would have to wait so long. Take a week off work and you will find 8 picks that you think are a good bet. The underlying risks are still the same however. Any price of 4/6 is inherently not a sure pick. If it was, the bookies would price it at 0/1. They are not stupid and in the main a 4/6 chance, even if fair, has a 40% chance of losing. Suppose that they are indeed way out and this is actually only 20% (which would equate to a 33% yield to level stakes), in 8 attempts you still have an 83% chance of getting at least one wrong and losing the lot. As Pauly says, the first thing a serious gambler learns to do is lose, not dream about wins. Dreaming only increases the coffers of the bookmakers. Good luck anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest WelshGarth Posted March 21, 2003 Share Posted March 21, 2003 Re: Good luck Stryker Hi Stryker Betting 8 winners at around evens mathematically is the same as tossing a coin in the air 8 times and calling it right every time, give it a try tonight and see how you go;) Oddsagainst has made a lot of posts around here and I think his point would be you need to get an edge over the bookmaker, ie you need to find where they have compiled a bet as evens but the facts that you have been able to uncover have demonstrated that the bet is actually more likely to come in than that (ie 4/6). Some of the more experienced punters on here seem to advocate this approach rather than betting on an outcome because you think a team will win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bowles10 Posted March 22, 2003 Share Posted March 22, 2003 Re: Good luck Stryker i wish you luck but wonder when is the best time to strike the bet. e.g you could take Arsenal, Man U or Newcastle who all have excellent home records. Then only back them when they play a poor side, but then the inevitable happens - Man u lose to Bolton, Arsenal lose to Blackburn & so on. I really only look at football/racing & the odd golf bet so other sports, I cannot comment on. I would imagine that carefully picking 4/6 shots would be extremely difficult - eg West ham are 4/7 tomorrow to beat sunderland - easy we think but then take a look at WHU home record & you would not put a penny on it. On the other hand, newcastle are 8/13 to beat blackburn, NU home record v. impressive, therefore the bet would be newcastle. I will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted March 22, 2003 Share Posted March 22, 2003 Re: Good luck Stryker I wish you luck and have actually followed your boxing bet but will not be using your staking strategy. You must have balls of steel if you are going to place winnings from 9 straight bets on a 4/6 shot :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stryker2003 Posted March 23, 2003 Share Posted March 23, 2003 Good start Ok, off to a good start. Harrison wins, unanimous decision. 119-109 120-108 119-108 In fact one of the most one sided bouts i've seen. Now I do agree with some of the above posts points with regards to time scale etc, but I don't agree with just tossing a coin 8 times. Admittedley on paper that could be a true comparrison, but as pointed out, it's about getting that edge. If I was pricing that fight I would of gone 2/5 Harrison, due to my study of form, footage and other elements with regards to the fighters situations. And the bookies did get on to it shortening Harrison to 1/2 and 8/15. For me 4/5 was far too generous and had to be the banker of the month.( Easy to say now, but I did mention it before;) ) So with regards to time scale I could probably pick one a day, however not one I feel so strongly about, and not one that in my opinion was trading at a much bigger price than it should have been. So I'll start looking for the next one now and if anyone see's what they think is a "good thing", let me know it would be much appreciated. Bank now stands at £180 Wish me luck, thanks stryker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted March 23, 2003 Share Posted March 23, 2003 Re: Good start Good start. If I'd seen this thread earlier, I would have advised you to back Harrison on points if you were going to back him (I presonally couldn't call a winner so well done). There was no way Harrison was ever going to stop McCullogh (sp?) - as the commentators said, he has the best chin in world boxing. On the statistical side, even if the 4/5 was great value (and it turns out that it was after that one-sided performance), finding 2/5 shots priced at 4/5 still gives at least one of your bets a good chance of failure (I'll let someone else do the maths). This doesn't come down to whether you can spot value - if you can do that I would advise singles, rather than this 8 timer accumulator. The success of picking these 8 bets comes down to luck - no punter in the world will win all of their strong bets (which I have no doubt eah of these will be). If they did then they would bet only on these events, "gambling" huge stakes each time, and making themselves very rich. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that you will not succeed in this. Good luck and prove me wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bowles10 Posted March 23, 2003 Share Posted March 23, 2003 Re: Good start yes a good start..but why don't you bank some of the money after each win then you will have something to fall back on for your next bet. Is it worth getting to £500, after 3 bets then losing the lot ..bank 200 & bet with 300 for example?? Newcastle & chelsea were good bets yesterday at their prices. Chelsea were 1/2 & should have been 1/3 at least. I understand the strategy of betting where draws are unusual - have you looked at the rugby. probably missed all the bets now but the bookies have lost on the handicap a few times - i think england were 10/11 -29 which they just managed to do, but they were 1/50 for the win. good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stryker2003 Posted March 31, 2003 Share Posted March 31, 2003 Re: Next Step, Anaheim Angels to beat Texas Rangers Ok after not being confident enough in England beating the handicap today or Audley doing the business on points last night, its time for step 2. What made me bypass the above two was the Anaheim Angels. The MLB kicks off at 02.00 31/03/03 with the defending world series champions hosting the Texas Rangers. Tonight they present their championship trophy and world series trophy to the fans, there will be a lot of V.I.P,s about and a tremendous fanfare. They won a club record 99 games last year and nearly all the squad is back. Rangers have finished last in the AL West for the last 3 years. The Angels won 12 of the 19 matchups last season, including 7 of 9 at home. They won 6 of their first 7 meetings last year, and their last.The Rangers finished 31 games behind the Angels last year. Ok they have an injury to their chosen starting pitcher, but Lackey the replacement was instrumental in their last 10-5 thrashing of the Rangers, 26-09-02. The Angles can be backed at odds of 7/1 for the world series this year, the Rangers are 80/1. That stat alone is compelling. Maximum bet, £180 on the Angels at slightly better than 4/6 with Betfair. Confidence is very high for this one. I would price them at 2/5.;) They crashed and burned 6-3>: Typical, May try again later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted March 31, 2003 Share Posted March 31, 2003 Re: Next Step, Anaheim Angels to beat Texas Rangers Well let that be a lesson to you. Fortunes don't come easy, there are no such things as dead certs. My first rule of gambling is: learn how to lose Any good business learns to cope with bad periods. Making a decent return from gambling is no different. Following a Martingale approach to making a betting fortune does not figure anywhere in this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted March 31, 2003 Share Posted March 31, 2003 Re: Next Step, Anaheim Angels to beat Texas Rangers Don't want to say I told you so, but ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stryker2003 Posted March 31, 2003 Share Posted March 31, 2003 Re: Next Step, Anaheim Angels to beat Texas Rangers Ok,ok, you told me so. But believe me i already know how to lose, and I don't need this to be a lesson to me, Iv'e got 20yrs of punting lessons behind me. I was just trying to put a different angle on £35 to a grand. Anyway no hard feelings, no serious damage to the bank and upwards and onwards.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted March 31, 2003 Share Posted March 31, 2003 Re: Next Step, Anaheim Angels to beat Texas Rangers I'm just glad you lost so early, rather than getting to 7 winners and then losing. Although you would have been losing bookies money, it would have felt like yours. Good luck whatever you try next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stryker2003 Posted March 31, 2003 Share Posted March 31, 2003 Re: Next Step, Anaheim Angels to beat Texas Rangers thanks dave:D stryker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted March 31, 2003 Share Posted March 31, 2003 Re: Next Step, Anaheim Angels to beat Texas Rangers If you have 20 years of punting experience behind you, why are you still using a Martingale-type staking plan. Or was this a bit of fun? Would you flip coins for 20 years still believing that Martingale was a good way to make some riches? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luddite71 Posted April 1, 2003 Share Posted April 1, 2003 martingale Heard the much maligned Martingale plan a few times around these parts. Can anyone give me a brief explanation as to what it is please!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 1, 2003 Share Posted April 1, 2003 Re: martingale www.bettingadvice.com/sho...hp?id=22#1 Don't use it! You have been warned. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luddite71 Posted April 1, 2003 Share Posted April 1, 2003 Re: martingale Cheers Joe. Not looked at it yet, but your warning has been heeded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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