Guest Joe Mavis Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 I have been following results closely in the premier league, Div 1,Div 2 and 3 and i reckon the score line 2-2 comes up quite often, more often than the true odds of around 16/1 therefore showing value does anyone have any ideas how i could use any ways to help me choose and back these score lines. I have thought of using league positions and putting close league teams in doubles to finish 2-2 has anyone else got any other ideas?? Please???? Edit: Joe, I have given your thread a more relevant title. Helps people to decide what to read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Help me please What data do you have to support this? What size is the sample? In any event, if you are correct, all you have to do is bet all English games to finish 2-2 and you will profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Help me please At odds that large I wouldn't cosider any doubles at all. Get some historic data and determine how many matches there are that finishes 2-2 out of all the matches played over the last couple of season (go back 5 seasons if you can). You can get the data from Joe's website for a nominal fee. If the data backs up you theory then back all games as single to finish 2-2. If it's aas you say it is now you will be in profit. I am a little sceptical about this right now but would love to be proven wrong so best of luck. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 UK Football Correct Score Breakdown - Last 5 Seasons Take a look at sporting life's footy section. Click into a division, e.g. Premiership, then stats, then correct scores. (I can't seem to post a link to it, sorry) It breaks all the scores down over the last 5 seasons and shows the 2-2 scoreline coming in at a fairly steady rate of 5.5% (ish) across all four divisions, so no surprise that the bookies are pricing this around the 17.00 mark. Hope this helps you (and anyone else looking into this market, like me ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest budgetbetting co uk Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 2-2 scores Joe here is some prem results . 95/96 season total games 380 2-2 score = 14 ( 3.7 % ) 96/97 season total games 380 2-2 score = 25 ( 6.6 % ) 97/98 season total games 380 2-2 score = 12 ( 3.2 % ) 98/99 season total games 380 2-2 score = 20 ( 5.3 % ) 99/00 season total games 380 2-2 score = 18 ( 4.7 % ) 00/01 season total games 380 2-2 score = 19 ( 5.0 % ) 01/02/ season total games 380 2-2 score = 15 ( 3.9 % ) ............. 02/03 season only counting 310 fixtures 2-2 score = 20 ( 6.5 % ) Thats from the prem . Hope that helps. paul. www.budgetbetting.co.uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest system13 Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: 2-2 scores According to my programs stats until now in current Premiership season there have been 22 occurrences of 2-2 score (interesting figure,don`t you think;) ) which represents ~ 6% of all scores.Therefore,odds 16/1 are pretty accurate in general and no exceptional value here whatsoever.BUT,if one takes a closer look,it`s a interesting idea because several teams tend to end their matches with this score more often than others... Day 1 Everton - Tottenham Day 2 Chelsea - Man Utd West Ham - Arsenal Middlesbrough - Fulham Day 3 Blackburn - Liverpool Day 4 Liverpool - Newcastle Day 5 Liverpool - Birmingham Day 6 Man City - Blackburn Day 11 Middlesbrough - Leeds Day 17 Middlesbrough - West Ham Day 18 Charlton - Man City Day 19 West Brom - Sunderland Day 20 Tottenham - Charlton Day 21 Blackburn - West Ham Day 22 Everton - Man City Day 23 Middlesbrough - Southampton West Ham - Newcastle Day 25 Liverpool - Arsenal Day 30 Fulham - Southampton Day 31 Southampton - Aston Villa Day 33 Leeds - Tottenham West Ham - Aston Villa Only 2 doubles and 1 treble so far,and notice wich team appears in all of them? Except West Ham,IMO "strong" picks would be Boro,Tottenham and Everton @ home, Soton,Villa and Newcastle away,then Leeds,Liverpool,Fulham and Man City either way so combining these teams in future fixtures for 2-2 CS may be worth trying with a small interest on singles... Back to the future... Day 37 Middlesbrough - Tottenham 2-2 ;) or one can always perm any 2/10 (45 combs) and hope for the best round so far (Day 2) to reincarnate in,say,Day 38...:) GLTA :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest budgetbetting co uk Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 A few more pointers ... Heres a few more . These results are not upto last weekend as my stuff has not been updated yet . . This season . DIV 1 . 469 of 552 fixs 2-2 score = 26 ( 5.5 % ) DIV 2 . 447 of 552 fixs 2-2 score = 22 ( 4.6 % ) DIV 3 . 471 OF 552 fixs 2-2 score = 35 ( 7.4 % ) Like i say this not updated to last weekend . paul. www.budgetbetting.co.uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: A few more pointers ... another way this could be done is to use another system to filter out matches. Build a system to determine whether a match will be over/under 2.5 goals. If you can get the accuracy of predictability up on these then just bet the 2-2 draw for matches that shows as potentially being over 2.5 goals. This will obviously take a bit of time and some maths to work out if there is any value. But its a start none the less! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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