Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 2, 2003 Share Posted April 2, 2003 Hi folks I've backed-proofed this system over hundreds of bets across thousands of games and it's showing a profit. Unusually (I think) it's based around correct scores... usually a difficult area to beat the bookie, but it's showing promise so I thought I'd start posting what the system is telling me on here, in advance. Hope you don't mind!? Currently I'm only feeding stats into the system for the 4 English divisions, league games only. It throws up a lot of bets each week so I'll proof this with a starting bank of 100 units with a single unit on each bet. Comments appreciated. Wayne Odds taken from stanleybet.com 28 bets in total 05/04/2003 P Sunderland v Chelsea 0-1 (7.00) 05/04/2003 P Middlesboro v West Brom 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 P Bolton v Man City 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 P Tottenham v Birmingham 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 1 Preston v Coventry 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 1 Wolves v Rotherham 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 1 Leicester v Grimsby 1-0 (7.50) 05/04/2003 1 Walsall v Portsmouth 1-1 (6.50) 05/04/2003 1 Bradford v Millwall 1-0 (7.00) 04/04/2003 1 Reading v Brighton 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 1 Burnley v Watford 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 1 Crystal Palace v Sheffield United 1-1 (6.50) 05/04/2003 1 Derby v Norwich 1-1 (7.00) 05/04/2003 1 Ipswich v Nott'm Forest 2-1 (8.00) 05/04/2003 1 Sheffield Weds v Wimbledon 2-1 (9.00) 04/04/2003 2 Northampton v Wigan 0-1 (7.00) 05/04/2003 2 Peterboro v Swindon 1-0 (7.50) 05/04/2003 2 Huddersfield v Chesterfield 2-1 (8.50) 05/04/2003 2 Oldham v Barnsley 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 2 Luton v Tranmere 1-1 (6.50) 05/04/2003 2 Cardiff v QPR 2-1 (8.00) 05/04/2003 3 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 3 Macclesfield v Cambridge 1-0 (7.50) 05/04/2003 3 Leyton Orient v Boston 0-1 (8.00) 05/04/2003 3 Lincoln v Oxford 1-0 (7.00) 05/04/2003 3 Southend v Darlington 0-1 (8.00) 05/04/2003 3 Shrewsbury v Swansea 2-1 (8.50) 05/04/2003 3 Exeter v Bury 0-1 (8.00) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted April 2, 2003 Share Posted April 2, 2003 Re: Correct Score Predictor Always interested to see someone trying to make a serious attempt to beat this market. Just one question for now: why restrict yourself to one bookmaker, why not use best odds available with reputable books? Good luck, we will be watching with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 2, 2003 Share Posted April 2, 2003 Re: Correct Score Predictor Thanks for the encouragement OA. I hope I can keep a weekly posting going. In answer to your question about me using a single bookie's odds: I've found that Stanley's are consistently 'up there' with the best correct score odds about and I really can't be doing with sourcing the best available across many bookies when there are so many bets. Lazy, I know. Most bookies offer pretty much the same odds for correct scores (as most of you probalby know) so if Stanley's price is not the best around I don't think I'll be losing out much. Obviously there is not going to be a great strike rate for this system so I'd consider it quite unlucky if a winning bet also happens to be one that I could have quoted better odds for! Fingers crossed that the system proves itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted April 2, 2003 Share Posted April 2, 2003 Re: Correct Score Predictor MIWAYNE, can you explain your system a bit more ? how do you come to your selections ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted April 2, 2003 Share Posted April 2, 2003 correct scores Good luck with this MiWayne sounds interesting. I think there might be something in this market myself, despite the high overrounds. Got to expect a low strike rate though. Have you thought about doing perm bets to cover several scores on the same game? What sort of profit did you manage to make in your back-testing and over how many games? I presume that the sample for back testing was compeletely independent of that for developing the system. Are you just using match results or other stats in generating the predictions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 2, 2003 Share Posted April 2, 2003 Re: Correct Score Predictor Obviously I don't want to give too much away in case it ends up showing a longer term profit, but... Basically the system applies a rating to each team using many factors, including points, goals and league position over many previous league games. Back-proofing over the data I have for these ratings has shown that when the home and away team fall within certain ranges they are much more likely to have certain full time scores than others. As you can see from the selections, I have found potentially profitable trends for the 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 2-1 scorelines, but the odds for the other scores are just not big enough to extract anywhere near a profit over the games I have looked at. A bit of a wishy, washy reply, but I hope it gives you the gist of what I'm doing!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted April 2, 2003 Share Posted April 2, 2003 Re: Correct Score Predictor No need for anyone to reveal the inner workings of their system, indeed doing so in the public domain is not desirable IMO. Now what did we do with that idea for a private systems forum? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest smudge Posted April 2, 2003 Share Posted April 2, 2003 Re: Correct Score Predictor watching this with interest miwayne! i have had many attempts at coming up with a c/s system....always to no avail in the long-term! have found 1-0 & 2-0 to be the best scores for working with! good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted April 3, 2003 Share Posted April 3, 2003 Re: Correct Score Predictor Obviously I don't want to give too much away in case it ends up showing a longer term profit, but... like the rest of us ;) Basically the system applies a rating to each team using many factors, including points, goals and league position over many previous league games. Do you feed any information to the system other than the match results, e.g. referee, weather, corners, card etc? As you can see from the selections, I have found potentially profitable trends for the 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 2-1 scorelines, but the odds for the other scores are just not big enough to extract anywhere near a profit over the games I have looked at. This is interesting, do you think it is a case of the bookies odds being too harsh at these scores, or a case of your model not working so well for larger differentials. There are various tricks you might apply if the latter is the case. You can pm me if you want to discuss it offline. A bit of a wishy, washy reply, but I hope it gives you the gist of what I'm doing!? not at all, we get the general idea and are watching with interest. You might even consider putting it forward for our league of systems table? How well did it do in the back0testing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted April 3, 2003 Share Posted April 3, 2003 Number of the beast Aghhh better post wuickly....see that my post count is at 666, and there is a mysterious zero has crept into the last line! :evil :evil :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 3, 2003 Share Posted April 3, 2003 Details The system is mainly geared around giving weighted factors to goals and points, taking into account whether they were gained at home or away and how recently they were gained and whether the team in question is home or away. Make sense? There is another 'secret' ingredient, but I don't want to give away all that I'm doing. After all, it might all be going belly up a few weeks/months down the line! Regarding why some of the other scorelines are not showing a profitable opportunity!?... Obviously the scorelines outside those my system is based around are the much less frequent scorelines. Perhaps it's the bookies odds simply being too bad or maybe the sample of data I have used is simply not big enough to allow for this? I mentioned that the system is showing profit when back-testing, but I'd be lying if I said I had hard figures for this. I couldn't get the actual correct score odds against each match for my results database, but the standard nature of correct score odds setting gave me a good idea of required strike rates for a particluar scoreline needed to return a profit. e.g. given the average odds for 1-0 is 7.00 then a minimum strike rate of 14.3% is required to return a long-term profit. Agree? The back-testing showed a strike rate above what I thought was a required level for scorelines mentioned. Only by around 0.2% in each case, but in the long term, if this continues, then I'll be happy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted April 3, 2003 Share Posted April 3, 2003 Re: Details I think Mabel's Tables gives correct score odds tables that you would be able to imort into Excel or whatever if that helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted April 3, 2003 Share Posted April 3, 2003 Re: Details Hi Miwayne thanks for all the answers. I fully understand you not wanting to say exactly how your system works. Many of us here have tried systems in this area and I'm sure we feel the same. However it is interesting and instructive I think to see what sort of information people are feeding into the system. Several of us have had discussions offline via instant messanger, e-mail and private messander etc, where we can be a little less circumspect. Things like home and away, how recent the game is, goals and points etc, are all 'derived' from the basic match result - they are just different ways of processing it. I certainly wouldn't expect you to give away all the details, as I said, especially not in a public forum! Is your secret ingredient some other information other than something derived from the score above, or is that a secret? ;) Regarding the other scorelines, it might be interesting for you to investigate goal supremacy to see if there is a falling off in accuracy of your model, or just not an opportunity for profit from these (sub-)markets. It is not quite correct to assume that having a strike rate higher than 14.3% is enough, it also depends on how the odds vary from match to match. The 'edge' of 0.2% in this case might therefore not be enough. I know when I looked at this market previously there was some (but not a lot) variation between various bookmakers on certain scores, e.g. one bookie might have it at 6.5 and another at 7.5. I guess the best thing to do might be just to continue proofing the system and seeing how it goes. Have you consider the Asian Handicap - it might be a way of leveraging a higher strike rate? Hope that helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 7, 2003 Share Posted April 7, 2003 Re: Week 1 Results Terrible start... no winners. Kiss of death putting this on the forum I guess. I will carry on though! 05/04/2003 P Sunderland v Chelsea 0-1 (7.00) 1-2 Loser 05/04/2003 P Middlesboro v West Brom 1-0 (7.00) 3-0 Loser 05/04/2003 P Bolton v Man City 1-0 (7.00) 2-0 Loser 05/04/2003 P Tottenham v Birmingham 1-0 (7.00) 2-1 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Preston v Coventry 1-0 (7.00) 2-2 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Wolves v Rotherham 1-0 (7.00) 0-0 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Leicester v Grimsby 1-0 (7.50) 2-0 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Walsall v Portsmouth 1-1 (6.50) 1-2 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Bradford v Millwall 1-0 (7.00) 0-1 Loser 04/04/2003 1 Reading v Brighton 1-0 (7.00) 1-2 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Burnley v Watford 1-0 (7.00) 4-7 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Crystal Palace v Sheffield United 1-1 (6.50) 2-2 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Derby v Norwich 1-1 (7.00) 2-1 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Ipswich v Nott'm Forest 2-1 (8.00) 3-4 Loser 05/04/2003 1 Sheffield Weds v Wimbledon 2-1 (9.00) 4-2 Loser 04/04/2003 2 Northampton v Wigan 0-1 (7.00) 0-2 Loser 05/04/2003 2 Peterboro v Swindon 1-0 (7.50) 1-1 Loser 05/04/2003 2 Huddersfield v Chesterfield 2-1 (8.50) 4-0 Loser 05/04/2003 2 Oldham v Barnsley 1-0 (7.00) 2-1 Loser 05/04/2003 2 Luton v Tranmere 1-1 (6.50) 0-0 Loser 05/04/2003 2 Cardiff v QPR 2-1 (8.00) 1-2 Loser 05/04/2003 3 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth 1-0 (7.00) 0-2 Loser 05/04/2003 3 Macclesfield v Cambridge 1-0 (7.50) 1-1 Loser 05/04/2003 3 Leyton Orient v Boston 0-1 (8.00) 3-2 Loser 05/04/2003 3 Lincoln v Oxford 1-0 (7.00) 0-1 Loser 05/04/2003 3 Southend v Darlington 0-1 (8.00) 2-0 Loser 05/04/2003 3 Shrewsbury v Swansea 2-1 (8.50) 0-0 Loser 05/04/2003 3 Exeter v Bury 0-1 (8.00) 1-2 Loser 28 bets. Starting pot: 100 units This week: -28 Current Pot: 72 units Out of Interest: 8 were just a single goal off: 8 !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 11, 2003 Share Posted April 11, 2003 Week 2 System Selections If it draws a blank again I'll stop wasting your time and pack this in! It's got some making up to do after last weekend. Odds from Stanley's again. 30 selections for this weekend. Starting bank: 100 Current Bank: 72 12/04/2003 P Blackburn v Charlton 2-1 (8.00) 12/04/2003 P Birmingham v Sunderland 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 P Leeds v Tottenham 2-1 (8.00) 12/04/2003 P Newcastle v Man United 2-1 (10.00) 12/04/2003 P West Brom v Everton 0-1 (7.00) 12/04/2003 P West Ham v Aston Villa 2-1 (8.00) 12/04/2003 1 Brighton v Preston 1-1 (6.50) 12/04/2003 1 Coventry v Ipswich 0-1 (7.50) 12/04/2003 1 Grimsby v Crystal Palace 1-0 (7.50) 12/04/2003 1 Millwall v Stoke 0-1 (9.00) 12/04/2003 1 Norwich v Burnley 2-1 (8.00) 12/04/2003 1 Rotherham v Leicester 0-1 (7.00) 12/04/2003 1 Wimbledon v Derby 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 2 Blackpool v Crewe 0-1 (7.50) 12/04/2003 2 Bristol City v Mansfield 1-0 (7.50) 12/04/2003 2 Colchester v Notts County 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 2 Cheltenham v Oldham 2-1 (10.00) 13/04/2003 2 Chesterfield v Cardiff 1-1 (6.50) 12/04/2003 2 Port Vale v Northampton 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 2 QPR v Luton 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 2 Tranmere v Wycombe 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 2 Wigan v Brentford 1-0 (7.50) 12/04/2003 3 Bournemouth v Southend 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 3 Cambridge v Exeter 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 3 Hartlepool v Leyton Orient 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 3 Rushden & D v Lincoln 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 3 Swansea v Scunthorpe 1-1 (6.50) 12/04/2003 3 Torquay v Macclesfield 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 3 Wrexham v Bristol Rvs 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 3 York v Rochdale 1-0 (7.00) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 14, 2003 Share Posted April 14, 2003 Week 2 Results That's more like!... a profitable weekend for the system: 30 units placed 5 winners (see below) 35 units returned for a profit of 5 units on the weekend 9 of the other predictions were just a single goal off !! Starting bank: 100 Current Bank: 77 Winning selections: 12/04/2003 2 Blackpool v Crewe 0-1 (7.50) 12/04/2003 2 Tranmere v Wycombe 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 3 Bournemouth v Southend 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 3 Rushden & D v Lincoln 1-0 (7.00) 12/04/2003 3 Swansea v Scunthorpe 1-1 (6.50) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 Week 3 System Selections Some mid-week selections this time. 9 in total... Odds from Ladbrokes this time: 16/04/2003 P Arsenal v Man United 2-1 (8.00) 15/04/2003 1 Portsmouth v Burnley 1-0 (7.00) 15/04/2003 1 Reading v Preston 2-1 (8.00) 15/04/2003 1 Sheffield United v Nott'm Forest 2-1 (8.00) 15/04/2003 1 Walsall v Coventry 1-0 (8.00) 15/04/2003 2 Crewe v Bristol City 2-1 (8.00) 15/04/2003 3 Carlisle v York 1-1 (6.50) 15/04/2003 3 Rochdale v Kidderminster 2-1 (9.00) 15/04/2003 3 Shrewsbury v Macclesfield 1-1 (6.50) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Week 3 Results (so far) 2 winners from the 8 played last night: 15/04/2003 1 Portsmouth v Burnley 1-0 (7.00) 15/04/2003 3 Carlisle v York 1-1 (6.50) Still Arsenal game tonight. Week 3 Summary (so far): 8 units placed 13.5 units returned 5.5 profit Overall summary: Starting bank: 100 Units placed: 66 Current Bank: 82.5 I'm not about after today until next week so I'll try and get the system's weekend selections up soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MIWAYNE Posted April 16, 2003 Share Posted April 16, 2003 Week 4 System Selections 26 selections from the system for this weekend: Odds from StanleyBet this time: 19/04/2003 P Charlton v Birmingham 2-1 (8.00) 19/04/2003 P Everton v Liverpool 2-1 (9.00) 19/04/2003 P Middlesboro v Arsenal 2-1 (13.00) 19/04/2003 P Southampton v Leeds 2-1 (9.00) 19/04/2003 P Sunderland v West Brom 0-1 (9.00) 18/04/2003 P Tottenham v Man City 1-0 (7.00) 19/04/2003 1 Burnley v Gillingham 2-1 (8.00) 19/04/2003 1 Leicester v Brighton 1-0 (7.50) 19/04/2003 1 Preston v Sheffield United 2-1 (10.00) 18/04/2003 1 Reading v Nott'm Forest 2-1 (8.50) 19/04/2003 1 Sheffield Weds v Grimsby 1-0 (7.00) 19/04/2003 1 Wolves v Millwall 1-0 (7.00) 19/04/2003 2 Cardiff v Colchester 2-1 (8.00) 19/04/2003 2 Crewe v Swindon 1-0 (7.50) 19/04/2003 2 Huddersfield v Wigan 0-1 (7.00) 19/04/2003 2 Luton v Bristol City 1-1 (6.50) 18/04/2003 2 Northampton v Stockport 0-1 (7.50) 19/04/2003 2 Oldham v Chesterfield 1-0 (7.00) 19/04/2003 2 Peterboro v Blackpool 1-0 (7.00) 19/04/2003 2 Plymouth v Port Vale 1-0 (7.00) 19/04/2003 3 Bristol Rvs v Cambridge 1-1 (7.00) 19/04/2003 3 Carlisle v Rushden & D 1-1 (6.50) 19/04/2003 3 Leyton Orient v Swansea 1-1 (6.50) 19/04/2003 3 Lincoln v York 1-1 (6.50) 19/04/2003 3 Macclesfield v Darlington 1-0 (7.50) 19/04/2003 3 Southend v Torquay 0-1 (7.50) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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