Osesame Posted April 11, 2003 Share Posted April 11, 2003 This is often mentioned as a happy hunting ground. What I would like is a list of these worldwide,so that I can analyse results over the last 3 years,and then post the figures for profit/loss. I'm sure that although I know many there are lots more. Please just add them to this thread and I will work through them as they are posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Da Hannanah Posted April 11, 2003 Share Posted April 11, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. Ose - don't remember who, but some other guy here did the very same thing some months ago and came up with a very long list. Maybe someone can remember?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest crowie1969 Posted April 11, 2003 Share Posted April 11, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. I thought it was you! Was it?:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 12, 2003 Author Share Posted April 12, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. I hunted for that thread but could not find it,hence the request. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Da Hannanah Posted April 12, 2003 Share Posted April 12, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. Nope - not me :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted April 12, 2003 Share Posted April 12, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. Wasn't it Lardonio? Maybe you could pm him for the list (if it was him) - saves us all listing them again ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 15, 2003 Author Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. No reply from Lardonio yet (if it was him?) Thought I'd start with the London clubs. First one to come under scrutiny is Chelsea. 3 seasons including current one so far for all teams Chelsea at home:v Arsenal*.......XXX Villa...........121 Birmingham..001 Blackburn ...0X2 Bolton .......011 Charlton* ....221 Leeds .......X11 Man.C.......101 Man. U.......X2X Middlesbrough 1X1 Newcastle 1X1 Southampton .12X Sunderland 211 Spurs*.......12X WBA.........12X West Ham* .112 Fulham*.......01 Everton......11 Liverpool.....11 total 54 matches draws12 Derbies 13 matches draws 5 ( 3 v Arsenal)...yield 28% ......................................................................... Chelsea away:v Arsenal *.........X11 Birmingham ....002 Blackburn ......0X2 Bolton ..........0XX Charlton *.......112 Everton ........1X1 Liverpool.......X11 Fulham *........0XX Leeds...........1X1 Man. City......202 Man. United...X21 Middlesbrough.12X Newcastle .....X21 Southampton.12X Sunderland...1x2 Spurs*..........22X WBA...........002 Aston Villa..XX Westham*...21 total 55 matches draws19 derbies 14 matches draws 4....not good Other info from this analysis: Best bets over the 3 seasons (At average odds) Chelsea favourite at home yields 02/03 so far 11.5% 01/02 ..........1.1% 00/01 .........13.8% Chelsea away Draws in average odds range 3.01 - 3.19 yields 02/03 so far 42% 01/02.........86% 00/01.........56% to be continued........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest abookiesworstnightmare Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. Stoke Vs POrt Vale Are Normally ALL draws from what i remember, Analyze that if u can? Problem is THey're not in the same league now, lol, But maybe they will be after the end of the season with stoke looming at the bottom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 15, 2003 Author Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. Since 93/94 Stoke v Port vale 1 draw from 6 Port Vale v Stoke 5 draws from 6 50% draws is high but much better if you have a selection method that can pick the difference between home and away results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. You want derby games. Well there is the Leicester, Forest, Derby County east midlands trio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest smudge Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. and west midlands - villa / birmingham / wba + wolves / walsall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. Also, should the East/ West midlands derbies count as well? I realise the emotions probably are not as high in these matches but they can be played with more passion than normal. May be worth looking into? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 15, 2003 Author Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. No 2 Spurs AT HOME Arsenal London FC*111 Aston Villa        1x2 Birmingham City        nnx Blackburn Rovers        n12 Bolton Wanderers        nx2 Charlton Athletic*        112 Chelsea London FC*11x Everton FC        xxx FC Liverpool        111 Fulham United*        n21 Leeds United        112 Manchester City        212 Manchester United        111 Newcastle United        121 Southampton FC        111 Sunderland        221 West Ham United*        x21 Middlesbrough        WBA        only 2 from 14 AT HOME Arsenal London FC*xxx Aston Villa        xx1 Birmingham City        nn1 Bolton Wanderers        n11 Charlton Athletic*        x2x Chelsea London FC*22x Everton FC        1x1 FC Liverpool        112 Fulham United*        n1x Leeds United        211 Middlesbrough        x12 Newcastle United        122 Southampton FC        x11 Sunderland        111 West Bromwich Albion nn1 West Ham United*        1x1 Blackburn Rovers        Manchester United        Manchester City        8 from 14 02/03 4/5 01/02 2/5 00/01 2/4 Only other bet of interest is backing home wins in all Spurs away matches yields 02/03 so far 9% 01/02 .........22% 00/01 .........34% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest smudge Posted April 15, 2003 Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. i don't think west / east midlands should be treated as derbies....i don't particularly class brum v derby as a, well, derby :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 15, 2003 Author Share Posted April 15, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. This started as draws and derbies, but will eventually cover all leagues and matches,there is so much info that as each league is completed I will make a spread sheet available.This is attempting to find where consistent profit can be found for each team .I hope to have all the English leagues completed within a few weeks.The full spread sheet for each team is 60-70Kb and there is a lot of manual work to do in preparing them.If anyone can help with programming in exel I would be grateful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 16, 2003 Author Share Posted April 16, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. No3 Charlton CHARLTON HOME AWAY . 00/01 01/02 02/03 00/01 00/02 02/03 Arsenal 1 2 2 1 2 1 Villa X 2 1 1 1 1 Blackburn 0 2 1 0 1 1 Bolton Wanderers 0 2 X 0 X 2 Chelsea London FC 1 1 2 2 2 1 Everton 1 2 1 1 2 1 Liverpool 2 2 1 1 1 ? Leeds 2 2 2 1 X 2 Manchester City 1 2 X 2 X 2 Manchester United X 2 2 1 X ? Middlesbrough 1 X 1 X X X Newcastle 1 X 2 2 1 1 Sunderland 2 X X 1 X 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1 1 2 X 2 X West Bromwich Albion 0 0 1 0 0 2 West Ham United X X 1 1 1 2 Southampton X X ? X 1 X Fulham 0 X ? 0 X 1 Birmingham 0 0 ? 0 0 X TOTALS 1 2 0 1 1 1 3 from 13 home so far ... and 3/13 away not good BEST BET draws away av odds under 3.22 . 00/01 01/02 02/03 bets@1pt 10 10 6 wins 5 5 3 return 15.37 15.64 9.51 yield 53.70% 56.40% 58.50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 17, 2003 Author Share Posted April 17, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. No. 4 West Ham WEST HAM HOME AWAY . 00/01 01/02 02/03 00/01 00/02 02/03 Arsenal 2 X 2 1 1 1 Villa X X X X 1 1 Blackburn 0 1 1 0 1 X Bolton Wanderers 0 1 X O 1 ? Chelsea London FC 2 1 ? 1 1 2 Everton 2 1 2 X 1 X Liverpool X X 2 1 1 1 Leeds 2 X 2 2 1 1 Manchester City 1 0 X 1 0 ? Manchester United X 2 X 1 2 1 Middlesbrough 1 1 ? 1 1 X Newcastle 1 1 ? 1 1 1 Sunderland 2 1 X X 1 2 Tottenham Hotspur X 2 1 1 X 1 West Bromwich Albion 0 0 2 0 0 2 Charlton 1 1 2 X 1 1 Southampton 1 1 2 2 1 X Fulham 0 2 2 0 2 2 Birmingham 0 0 2 0 0 ? TOTALS for derbies 1 1 0 1 1 0 West Ham does not appear to have the derby factor ,you could win by LAYING the draws !!!!! BEST BET draws away.. av. AWAY odds under 3.30 . 00/01 01/02 02/03 bets@1pt 10 9 11 wins 4 4 5 return 12.21 12.5 16.09 yield 22.1% 38.9% 46.27% Please note the "best bets" has nothing to do with derbies,it is a record of profitable scenarios over the three seasons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 17, 2003 Author Share Posted April 17, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. No.5 Arsenal ARSENAL . HOME AWAY . 00/01 01/02 02/03 00/01 00/02 02/03 West Ham . . . 2 X X Villa . . . X 2 2 Blackburn . . . 0 2 1 Bolton Wanderers . . . 0 2 ? Chelsea London FC . . . X X X Everton . . . 1 2 1 Liverpool . . . 1 2 X Leeds . . . 1 X 2 Manchester City . . . 2 0 2 Manchester United . . . 1 2 1 Middlesbrough . . . 2 2 ? Newcastle . . . X 2 X Sunderland . . . 1 X ? Tottenham Hotspur . . . X X X West Bromwich Albion . . . 0 0 2 Charlton . . . 1 2 2 Southampton . . . 1 2 1 Fulham . . . O 2 2 Birmingham . . . 0 0 2 TOTALS for derbies 1 1 0 2 3 3 Have not bothered with Arsenal at home for obvious reasons Arsenal away 8/14 derby draws This would give a yield of about 70%, odds very low on these matches. BEST BET draws away.. av. AWAY odds OVER 2.00 . 00/01 01/02 02/03 bets@1pt 10 10 6 wins 5 4 4 return 15.02 12.26 12.42 yield 50.2% 22.6% 107% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 17, 2003 Author Share Posted April 17, 2003 Re: Draws ..the derby factor. next team is Newcastle do they play any teams that would be considered as derbies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest redchiz Posted April 17, 2003 Share Posted April 17, 2003 NEWCASTLE next team is Newcastle do they play any teams that would be considered as derbies? Well, er, Sunderland, but not next season obviously! And Middlesbrough, but not quite the same level of rivalry methinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted April 18, 2003 Author Share Posted April 18, 2003 Re: NEWCASTLE No. 6 Newcastle NEWCASTLE . HOME AWAY . 00/01 01/02 02/03 00/01 00/02 02/03 West Ham 1 1 1 1 1 2 Villa 1 1 ? X X 2 Blackburn 0 1 1 0 X 1 Bolton Wanderers 0 1 1 0 2 1 Chelsea London FC X 2 1 1 X 1 Everton 2 1 1 X 2 1 Liverpool 1 2 1 1 1 X Leeds 1 2 2 2 2 2 Manchester City 2 0 1 2 0 1 Manchester United X 2 1 1 1 1 Middlesbrough 2 1 1 2 2 1 Arsenal X 2 X 1 2 1 Sunderland 2 X 1 X 2 ? Tottenham Hotspur 1 2 1 1 2 2 West Bromwich Albion 0 0 1 0 0 ? Charlton 2 1 1 1 X 2 Southampton X 1 1 1 1 X Fulham 0 X 1 0 1 ? Birmingham 0 0 ? 0 0 2 TOTALS for derbies . . . . . . Not much to say about this,except that backing home wins in these three seasons has broken even or made a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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