Redcar 24/09/08

[billy the punter]

5.10 Before The Little Fizzer's penultimate run I wrote this:

The Little Fizzer has recently joined the Evans yard and she is looking increasingly well handicapped. Only beaten 5l in a much better race, off a 3lb higher mark, LTO and ran to a mark of around mid-60s when 3rd to Hurrican Hen in a claimer before that. Has ran ok on all handicap starts off higher marks including some close runs off marks of 64 and 63. Must go close here off 52. Bye Baby Bunting ran well over this trip here two runs ago and is worth another try at it. Was backed off the boards to win a maiden here a few runs back and was 3rd at Kempton earlier in the year off 62. Her best run was probably the 4th in a maiden at Lingfield in March: 1st Commander Cave - now rated 98 2nd August Gale - narrowly beaten on handicap debut off 79 3rd Irish Music - now rated 69 4th Bye Baby Bunting 5th Tripod Molly - 12l winner off 56 Now Bye Baby Bunting has clearly regressed but if she shows anything near this form (or the 3rd at Kemton) then she would win this in a canter as she runs off a mark of just 45. I know this is a real low grade race and these are really low grade horses but I really believe that I'm on 4 horses slung in at the weights and at the prices I must have a big bet here.

The result of this race was: 1st Cryptonite Diamond 2nd The Little Fizzer 3rd Spic N Span 4th Bye Baby Bunting The Little Fizzer looked all over the winner until getting collared late on. Bye Baby Bunting won a better race NTO proving that this race was decent for the grade and that I was correct regarding that ones handicap mark. On this basis I made her a decent bet LTO at Great Leighs, she ran below form, was never travelling and was beaten 4l into 6l. She drifted before and there is a chance the new surface at GL didn't suit. She is limited and it's hard to trust horses rated as low but I'm prepared to give her another chance here - she must find a race off this mark of 53 very soon. Jockey booking doesn't fill with confidence though and her time may come in following weeks. Tangerine Trees hinted in maidens he could be better than a low 60s horse and his maiden handicap form worked out well. May need to drop another lb or two though. Forest Swallow hasn't run in the best maidens but showed massive improvement to win LTO. You'd expect his trainer to improve him as he does well with this type and on that basis is interesting off a mid 60s mark. Pride Of Northcare has improved steadily since joining Derek Shaw especially since tried at sprinting trips on his last two starts. Hard to know what to make of his A/W maiden win LTO as it was contested mainly by exposed types and he is possibly better judged on his penultimate start when he was 3rd to Chosen One. The winner won nicely off 63 earlier this week and given that Pride Of Northcare would've got fairly close to Chosen One with a clear run then he may just make his mark of 62 pay. Pride Of Northcare 40% of stake 14.5 betfair Forest Swallow 30% of stake 16.5 betfair The Little Fizzer 20% of stake 25 betfair Tangerine Trees 10% of stake 38 betfair plus combo 5.40 Maia showed promise last season and FTO this year but went off the boil for Dandy Nicholls. Now with Ollie Pears, who has started well as a trainer, and the change of yards could perk her up. Uace Mac bolted up in a maiden here on her penultimate start. She won by 4.5l and the 2nd (Mr Toshiwonka) won NTO off 62, the 3rd (Bertie Vista) was beaten a nk NTO off 59 and the 5th (Chosen One) won a maiden and a handicap off 63. Uace Mac is fairly treated (65) on that form and although she was only 7th of this mark LTO she is 5lb better off for a length with Paris Bell. Tylicki who won on here is back on board too. I backed Imperial Sword in early August and wrote this before the race:

Imperial Sword took advantage of a low mark in May - had dropped 31lb from July 2007 to May 2008. Is now 9lb higher but still well weighted on old form. Although it seems he has regressed his 6f form this season has been conistent 40421922 (badly drawn for the recent 9th) He likes cut and the stable who had been out of form have had two winners today and are 3/7 in past few days. Not a great win ratio and he is always more likely to place than win but everything is in his favour and he has to be backed.

He was an unlucky loser suffering from a terrible ride. Almost Married took advantage of that and he has held his form off higher marks since. Weighted to at least get closer to Avontuur here. Uace Mac 25% of stake E/W 16/1 Hills Imperial Sword 20% of stake E/W 6/1 Tote, Skybet, 365 Maia 10% of stake 34 betfair Plus combos

[fintron]

Re: Redcar 24/09/08 2.50 I got stuck into this 20-runner nursery handicap last night and it looks a stick-a-pin-in-the-racecard job, with no obvious contender. With this race being at Redcar though, the one that could be interesting is Alan Swinbank's Acclaben who makes the short journey from Richmond. He was a drifter on his debut in a York maiden and finished a disappointing 8th of 12, btn by 11.25 lengths. However, two subsequent efforts in maidens since have hinted that he does have some ability and could have a squeak of his present mark of 63. When finishing 7th of 16 at Thirsk he was closely matched with the 8th, Colerton Choice, who has improved since going handicapping and has found races off 70 and 77. The 6th won a maiden NTO, as did the 4th and 3rd and the 2nd has been defeated by miniscule margins in a couple of fair maidens since. The 1st has been contesting pattern races, with little luck. His last run came at the back end of August when he finished 6th of 11 at Ripon, but that looks a decent enough maiden in this context of this race and the 5th won a maiden NTO, the 3rd (who was about 12 lengths infront of Acclaben), Count Paris, won on his handicap debut off 67 and then followed up on Sunday off 72 at Hamilton. The 2nd Montmorency won his maiden NTO and holds a Group entry for a Group 1 on Saturday although the winner hasn't been seen since. So all in all, I think its fair to say the horses in front in his recent runs were decent enough performers and there was no shame in his final placings. He looks of interest now making his handicap debut at a lesser level (class 6 today) and the formline with Coleorton Choice suggests he could be well handicapped running off 63 here. He steps up to a mile for the first time today and although not certain to get it on breeding, I'm prepared to trust the trainer's judgement as whenever I go to Redcar he's usually amongst the winners and at 11/1 I think he's worth a little punt. 11/1 EW (1/4 4 places) Betfred.