aldric Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Interesting post there Matthew!! I don't think backtesting will work on this strategy, I think the only way to see if it works is to test it for real. Definately useful stats for laying at low odds, cheers. I don't think there has been a loss in the 6 days so far? Certainly encouraging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Interesting post there Matthew!! I don't think backtesting will work on this strategy, I think the only way to see if it works is to test it for real. Definately useful stats for laying at low odds, cheers. I don't think there has been a loss in the 6 days so far? Certainly encouraging. Backtesting must work.............it just needs someone with time and effort to do it. I had hoped I showed in post #83 that it can be done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Laying the field at 2.0 does make sense. A friends dad lays the field for 1.03 in every race. The logic being that he only needs 1 in 33 to go down for him to make his small amount of money. Looking at the PDF dices up'd this appears to make sense. Of the 29,703 races in the pdf, 31,031 horses were matched at 1.03. At 1.03 you would expect to be right 97.1% of the time, truth is that only 95.7% come in. Looking further down the pdf i spot some potential trouble for HG et al. The trend I note is that the higher the odds you lay at they, the more likely than expectation they are to happen. Take 1.88 from the pdf, you would expect a horse matched at this price to come in 53.2% of the time. According to the pdf this actually happens 58.5% of the time. The longer the odds, the greater the difference between expectation and what actually happens. Although the pdf doesn't go this far, assuming the diffferential comtinues then it appears that laying at 3 or 4 or 5 would yield more winners than you might hope. The difference here though is that you are obviously laying more horses than just a single horse in a single race and this might yield a result that masks the underlying facts that longer odds happen more than the odds suggest. Which may be why it works for laying and would not work for backing. Thoughts? But you forget one thing, the method doesn't care about winners, only numbers matched:ok Many winners go in and don't effect the fact that a profit was made during the running regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Backtesting must work.............it just needs someone with time and effort to do it. I had hoped I showed in post #83 that it can be done. I do remember that post and it did show it could be done. The problem is that we are talking about so many races, for example there are 27 tomorrow and that is without any evening racing. I don't believe anyone will sit through that amount of data to backtest and it is more realistic to test it for real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices The difference here though is that you are obviously laying more horses than just a single horse in a single race and this might yield a result that masks the underlying facts that longer odds happen more than the odds suggest. Which may be why it works for laying and would not work for backing. Thoughts? But you forget one thing, the method doesn't care about winners, only numbers matched:ok Many winners go in and don't effect the fact that a profit was made during the running regardless. I'm disagree that I forgot anything. You may have the perception that I am trying to knock what you are doing. Believe me I am not, just generating some debate on a Sunday night! As for backtesting....someone on here with demonstrable database skills will have the ability to do it en masse and provide a detailed answer, by track, by sp, by distance etc I would have thought. Yes my example was manual, more of a proof of concept than anything else. GL for the 27 races tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices I'm disagree that I forgot anything. You may have the perception that I am trying to knock what you are doing. Believe me I am not, just generating some debate on a Sunday night! As for backtesting....someone on here with demonstrable database skills will have the ability to do it en masse and provide a detailed answer, by track, by sp, by distance etc I would have thought. Yes my example was manual, more of a proof of concept than anything else. GL for the 27 races tomorrow. Cheers:ok I don't think you're knocking and it's natural to be skeptical of anything so simple in nature but all I know at the moment is...what I'm doing is working. If there really is anybody out there with the time, skill and data necessary for such a mission....please knock yourself out. I'm using many hours just putting the damned bets on haha!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices That's pretty nice:ok One thing I have been doing however, that aldric certainly misunderstood, is laying to a set liability rather than backers stake. The whole thing is totally random and therefore to have more at risk on any one race is not logical. I'm guessing your data is probably to £2.00 backers stake than £2.00 liability.....which obviously makes a big difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices That's pretty nice:ok One thing I have been doing however, that aldric certainly misunderstood, is laying to a set liability rather than backers stake. The whole thing is totally random and therefore to have more at risk on any one race is not logical. I'm guessing your data is probably to £2.00 backers stake than £2.00 liability.....which obviously makes a big difference. okay, that changes things slightly and I agree with the reasons why. so................with £2 liability on any matched bet: DATEPROFIT16th Sep-£0.0517th Sep£1.1018th Sep£4.4219th Sep£2.06 Definately flattens things on a day by day basis. It turns 17th Sep from a £7 loss into £1.10 profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices okay, that changes things slightly and I agree with the reasons why. so................with £2 liability on any matched bet: DATEPROFIT16th Sep-£0.0517th Sep£1.1018th Sep£4.4219th Sep£2.06 Definately flattens things on a day by day basis. It turns 17th Sep from a £7 loss into £1.10 profit. Works for me:ok Nice going mate:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
step1 Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices nice idea HG and best of luck with it. just wondered if gruss or the other betfair software sites would be capable of auto entering your bets..must be laborious on a Saturday with 35+ races. I see betrader mentioned , are you using this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices okay, that changes things slightly and I agree with the reasons why. so................with £2 liability on any matched bet: DATEPROFIT16th Sep-£0.0517th Sep£1.1018th Sep£4.4219th Sep£2.06 Definately flattens things on a day by day basis. It turns 17th Sep from a £7 loss into £1.10 profit. Impressive work there Matthew :clap Its going to be interesting to see how this went today as I put a lay on the field in every race at 2.0 and its resulted in an unmitigating disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheesymaxwell Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices I stumbled across this today and decided to lay at favourites odds { I used the average bookies odds } at So far £16.50 in profit. laying £2 backers stake in every race:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 29, 2008 Author Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices I'm at around £2.70 profit with one race to go on my normal £1 liability but it has been a struggle for most part. Favourites doing very well and not too many horses getting involved. Missed out on profiting in one race by finest of margin as price just didn't quite get there before favourite went in again! Overall though....it's another success and will make 6 days documented (7 counting my initial trial) profit:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 29, 2008 Author Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices nice idea HG and best of luck with it. just wondered if gruss or the other betfair software sites would be capable of auto entering your bets..must be laborious on a Saturday with 35+ races. I see betrader mentioned , are you using this? Yeah, using bettrader and thank the heavens for it haha! Also emailed them and they plan to implement some features will help no end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheesymaxwell Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Excellent system gooner !! I ended up £15.73 up on lays of £2 backers stake. Fortunetly had day off to try it out, but will be working rest of week. does anyone now how early favourites odds compare to sp odds ? Don't know much about bots. How easy are they to set up ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 29, 2008 Author Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 29, 2008 Author Share Posted September 29, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Edging ever closer to my £20 target, p/l now stands at +£16.31:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 30, 2008 Author Share Posted September 30, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Another 34p today (it was a real struggle) so still chasing down that target. Will post up screen prints in a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 30, 2008 Author Share Posted September 30, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted September 30, 2008 Author Share Posted September 30, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices So still not so much as one losing day and +£16.65:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAY IT ON ME Posted October 1, 2008 Share Posted October 1, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Good going HG. BUT be careful,remember that pride comes before a fall LIOM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 1, 2008 Author Share Posted October 1, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Good going HG. BUT be careful,remember that pride comes before a fall LIOM Indeed it does, and I have had more than my fare share of falls:$ Fingers crossed this is not merely another false dawn:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 1, 2008 Author Share Posted October 1, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Another £2.40 profit takes this glory hunt within touching distance of the objective. 8 days in and now +£19.05:ok Screenprints to follow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 1, 2008 Author Share Posted October 1, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted October 1, 2008 Share Posted October 1, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Hi, can you post details about the Newc 15:45 ? Was there a second horse with lay odd low as 1.55 as the fav?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 1, 2008 Author Share Posted October 1, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Hi, can you post details about the Newc 15:45 ? Was there a second horse with lay odd low as 1.55 as the fav?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted October 2, 2008 Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Thanks hg, it seems that my recording odds sheet needs more work.:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted October 2, 2008 Author Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Thanks hg' date=' it seems that my recording odds sheet needs more work.:eek[/quote'] Why is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted October 2, 2008 Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Nice one HG, glad to see this has continued to work!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted October 2, 2008 Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: A look at the potential in laying the field at low prices Why is that? Because recording every 0.5 sec (aprox) the odds, i have min lay odds of 2.66 for the second fav (Hard Luck Story) and not 1.65 as your matched bet. Refresh rate needs lowering for more accurate data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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