Ayr Gold Cup Sat 20/9/08

[fintron]

3.30 Looking ahead to the weekend its the Ayr Gold Cup and I'm looking for a little dabble now before the bookies shorten up their prices on the morning of the race. As for the St Leger I've been looking into ten year trends to try find the winner but what has come to my attention, and which I didn't realise up to now, is that this race has proven an absolute minefield for punters in the past. None of the last ten favourites won, very few of those even made the frame, and all of the last ten winners returned SP's of 10/1 or greater. What makes this race a difficult puzzle to solve is that many of the recent runners went into the race without any recent winning form, which is rare for a handicap. That isn't to say I've purposely looked for a horse that has been finishing out of the frame, but it highlights the unpredictability of the race. Another trend which goes against what you would normally expect of a handicap is that many of the winners came from the bottom of the weights, and eight of the last ten winners had an official rating less than 100. The trainer that has a fantastic record is Dandy Nicholls, who has won four of the last ten renewals, so unsuprisingly the Thirsk-based handler saddles no less than six runners in this years race. With such an impressive record you could do a lot worse than to follow his runners this year too and of his six, Valery Borzov is rated 101 and Regal Parade is one of the few in the race that has yet to win over 6 furlongs, so they are excluded. Northern Fling is aged 7 so has the age trend against him, as does Indian Trail, who, at 8, is one of the oldest in the field. That leaves two Nicholls runners, Tajneed and Turnkey. Tajneed looks to be the stable’s first string on jockey bookings but Adrian Nicholls’ mount is likely to be short in the betting following his head victory over stablemate Valery Borzhov at Ripon in a big-field handicap when last seen. With outsiders faring better than the market leaders in recent years the one I fancy as a consequence is Turnkey, who is the mount of 7 lb claimer Adele Rothery. The fact an apprentice rides this horse does not put me off because Rothery seems to get on well with the horse and has been the regular pilot since he was bought out of Mick Channon’s yard a couple of years ago. She has partnered him to victory twice, with the latest coming off a mark of 90 at Pontefract in April when he got the better of the useful Damika (rated 95, has won off 100 since) by a head. She is now rated 93 but put in a decent effort off that mark at Doncaster when last seen. The forecast ground for Saturday is heavy, but again, that should suit Turnkey, who has won with plenty of cut in the ground in the past. Only last year she put in a cracking effort at York with the going heavy, soft in places, when she was only three quarters of a length behind Zomerlust. She has fitness to prove after a 140-day absence but won on her reappearance at Leicester in 2005 and put in a solid effort on her reappearance at Doncaster this season when just over a length off the winner, so she gets the vote at a a decent price. Paddypower are offering 33/1 and are paying on 5 places at a quarter of the odds. 0.5 pt EW. Summary of the trends

• 4/10 won by Dandy Nicholls
• 10/10 aged 6 or unders
• 8/10 had an OR less than 100
• 9/10 had won over six furlongs before
• 0/10 winning favs
• 5/10 hadn't won during the current season

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ayr Gold Cup Sat 20/9/08 RIVER FALCON E/W 20/1 LADBROKES I see the trainer has gone low in the draw could be a shrewd move. Ran really well in this last year at 50's but the 20's looks good value to me after last weeks near miss and with the likely heavy ground will be finishing when many others will have had enough.