Best Bet of the Day - 17/9/08

[fintron]

4.40 Sandown Eleven runners face the starter for this class 4 fillies handicap over a mile. The one that takes my fancy is David Simcock's filly, Ainia. This daughter of Alhaarth remains a maiden but has shown plenty of promise in four career starts and runs off a mark of 76 today. She finished 5th on her debut in a Great Leighs maiden won by Slam and although that form isn't anything to write home about, the 2nd and 4th did at least pick up maidens next time out and Slam himself has maintained his form and is a genuine 90's performer. She was entitled to come on for that run and fared slightly better on her next run on soft ground at Goodwood when finishing 4th. She was closely matched with Moon Sister, 5th, who has won two since (including a handicap off 78) and the form of those infront has been equally as pleasing despite the fact the winner hasn't run again since. The 3rd, Fountain's Abbey won a maiden next time out and is rated 80 and the 2nd, Soft Shoe Shuffle, also won a maiden next time out before later picking up a handicap off a mark of 83. Her next run came in a maiden at Ripon when she found only La Sarrazine too good (beaten 3 lengths) and that rival franked the form by winning cosily at Ripon when last seen. The 3rd, Stalking Shadow, was a massive 5 lengths behind Ainia yet won a maiden next time out at Thirsk and maintained his momentum by winning a Salisbury handicap off 80 when last seen. Her last run came at Chepstow when she put in her closest effort to date, defeated by just a neck behind Addiena. The ratings of those horses that finished around her suggest that form isn't anything special, but Ainia was hampered 2 furlongs out that day and maybe could have done better with a clear run and the formlines with Moon Sister and Stalking Shadow could suggest she is well handicapped. She clearly handles a bit of cut in the ground (good, good/soft in places) so the going will not inconvenience and she is backable each-way at the price. 0.5 pt EW

[mowgli77]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - 17/9/08 Basque Beauty 4.30 Yarmouth (WIN) Said to be unsuited by softer ground last time out, highly regarded by connections. Progressive enough and can forgive it one poor run as it was very impressive at Ascot on firmer ground. EW steal at 10-1.