Hooloovoo Posted September 18, 2008 Author Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+ Quick calculations say you should have around £37.59 should the 4th bet provide a winner, meaning a 5th bet will be required to 'double-up'... or a single 1+ Goals bet! Keep it up mate... doing well :) cheers MT one more, cooooomeeee oooon! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 18, 2008 Author Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+ robinho hit the post.......!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted September 18, 2008 Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+ cheers MT one more, cooooomeeee oooon! :clap 1-2 :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 18, 2008 Author Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+ Omonia 1:2 Manchester City :) One final match tonight, we rely on Valencia Start bank: £20 (01) Panathinaikos - Inter, CS 0-1: £3.57 @ 6.8, 2+ goals: £16.42 @ 1.48, combined 1.21 £23.99 (02) Dynamo Kiev - Arsenal, CS 0-1: £3.39 @ 8.2, 2+ goals: £20.61 @ 1.35, combined 1.16 £27.65 (03) Litex Lovech - Aston Villa, CS 0-1: £3.93 @ 8.2, 2+ goals: £23.72 @ 1.36, combined 1.17 £32.10 (04) Omonia - Manchester City, CS 0-1: £4.72 @ 8.0, 2+ goals: £27.38 @ 1.38, combined 1.18 £37.59 (05) Maritimo - Valencia, CS 0-1: £6.19 @ 7.2, 2+ goals: £31.39 @ 1.42, combined 1.19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf4ever Posted September 18, 2008 Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+ In the bag 1-0 Valencia, 12 minutes :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 18, 2008 Author Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+ Morientes scores for Valencia after 12 minutes, so 5th bet is a winner...! :) Bank well doubled...! :nana I will sleep well tonight and figure out how to continue Start bank: £20 (01) Panathinaikos - Inter, CS 0-1: £3.57 @ 6.8, 2+ goals: £16.42 @ 1.48, combined 1.21 £23.99 (02) Dynamo Kiev - Arsenal, CS 0-1: £3.39 @ 8.2, 2+ goals: £20.61 @ 1.35, combined 1.16 £27.65 (03) Litex Lovech - Aston Villa, CS 0-1: £3.93 @ 8.2, 2+ goals: £23.72 @ 1.36, combined 1.17 £32.10 (04) Omonia - Manchester City, CS 0-1: £4.72 @ 8.0, 2+ goals: £27.38 @ 1.38, combined 1.18 £37.59 (05) Maritimo - Valencia, CS 0-1: £6.19 @ 7.2, 2+ goals: £31.39 @ 1.42, combined 1.19 £44.37 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior Bettor Posted September 18, 2008 Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Wow. In just 5 quite safe bets too. Now go again, starting from £40 :p Well done, I must say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted September 18, 2008 Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! In my opinion, the 'safer' option here would be to bank the initial £20, and double-up again with the remaining £24.37. If this system is going to work, it doesn't matter if you're only starting with £24 - double up to ~£50, and then maybe review the staking strategy, as sooner-or-later you are going to come across a loser! Keep focused mate, and I can see this one going a long way yet :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! In my opinion, the 'safer' option here would be to bank the initial £20, and double-up again with the remaining £24.37. If this system is going to work, it doesn't matter if you're only starting with £24 - double up to ~£50, and then maybe review the staking strategy, as sooner-or-later you are going to come across a loser! Keep focused mate, and I can see this one going a long way yet :) After a good night's sleep i have decided this is the way to go... As you say, sooner or (preferrably) later the looser will show up, and when it does, it feels a little bit better knowing it was "only" profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Here's to the next 5 winners!! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Here's to the next 5 winners!! :) Cheers to that MT, few matches today but i can always find something :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Doing extremely well so far HLV. Does seem like a really good idea. Hope your luck continues buddy :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! The research I'm currently carrying out on various football leagues shows, amongst other things, that you might be better off selecting matches where the home side is the 'favourite'. According to EPL data from the past 14 seasons, there is ~8% more chance of there being 2+ goals in a match where the home side is favourite as opposed to the away side. This might be quite logical, but is always good to throw a few hard facts into the theory! MT :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! The research I'm currently carrying out on various football leagues shows, amongst other things, that you might be better off selecting matches where the home side is the 'favourite'. According to EPL data from the past 14 seasons, there is ~8% more chance of there being 2+ goals in a match where the home side is favourite as opposed to the away side. This might be quite logical, but is always good to throw a few hard facts into the theory! MT :ok Interesting stats MT. I am aware that if the home side is heavy fav, the chance of 1-0 to the fav and 2+ goals increases. That's the upside. The downside is that the combined odd decreases, imo more than the increase in chance. Take for example the upcoming match between FC Inter and KuPS (finnish 1st div), where Inter is heavy fav. (match odds are 1.26 - 6.4 - 16.5) It has no market for over 2+ goals, but if i would lay 0-0 and 0-1 and combine that with a back of 1-0, i would end up with a combined odd of no more than 1.06 (if my calculations are correct), which is too low for this system, again imo. But you have a point, and i have been selecting 5 risky bets (fav is away, in cup matches...!) so far. I will try to find matches where i believe the following criteria is met: * there is a high probability for 2+ goals * home side is slightly to moderate favourite * ...and then of course the usual check of no or few injuries or other worries, good h2h stats and so on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! You are correct in that a heavy favourited home side will cause the combined odds to drop massively. It will have to be something to look further into. The example I gave earlier was based on a ratings model, with specific ratings producing x% of 'over 1.5' matches. I am still in the process of compiling the spreadsheets, but can maybe let you take a look when I have completed the task. The difference of upto just 8% between home and away favourites, I think, is like you say, lower than the difference in available odds on such matches. [e.g. combined odds for heavy home fav. of 1.06 (94.3% chance) compared to those for a heavy away fav. of 1.17 (85.5% chance) shows that the difference here is almost 9%, which is more than the difference as shown from the ratings model]. Therefore, maybe it is better to go for AWAY favourites, as you have been doing, afterall! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Well it's time to continue! I have decided to withdraw the start bank of £20 and continue with the profit. Utrecht has had a really poor start with two losses and only 1 goal scored. Willem II on the other hand has had a fantastic start, beating Ajax 2-1 at home and then 3-1 win away against Breda. Normally Utrecht should win this but now the table is turned. Demouge is fit to play for Willem and I expect a lot of goals tonight. What really pushes the combined odd into the "playable zone" is the, in my opinion, really high odd for 1-0 win for Willem, 16.0 is a gift. Start bank: £20 (01) Panathinaikos - Inter, CS 0-1: £3.57 @ 6.8, 2+ goals: £16.42 @ 1.48, combined 1.21 £23.99 (02) Dynamo Kiev - Arsenal, CS 0-1: £3.39 @ 8.2, 2+ goals: £20.61 @ 1.35, combined 1.16 £27.65 (03) Litex Lovech - Aston Villa, CS 0-1: £3.93 @ 8.2, 2+ goals: £23.72 @ 1.36, combined 1.17 £32.10 (04) Omonia - Manchester City, CS 0-1: £4.72 @ 8.0, 2+ goals: £27.38 @ 1.38, combined 1.18 £37.59 (05) Maritimo - Valencia, CS 0-1: £6.19 @ 7.2, 2+ goals: £31.39 @ 1.42, combined 1.19 £44.37 ***** withdrawn £20.00 ***** Continue with: £24.37 (06) Utrecht - Willem II, CS 0-1: £1.75 @ 16.0, 2+ goals: £22.62 @ 1.24, combined 1.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! still 1-0 in 76'.... that's for me going against the format and backing the outsider just because i held them as fav... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! 1-0 it ended, silly me....! :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Good news is that... 1. You 'banked' the initial £20, so all you do now is effectively go back to square 1, and start again! 2. Your 'system' still didn't lose, the 'favourite' won 1:0! *** Bad news is... 1. You went against your systems' rules, and the dreaded loser came a little earlier than expected! :( Unlucky mate. Don't give up though - it was only profit which you lost, NOT your own money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 20, 2008 Author Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Ok here we go again, using the £20 i banked away. Bottom meeting in J-League but i think Itawa can snatch a goal here against useless Yokohama. Tracking down h2h for 10 years, cannot find any 0-0 match between these. There are "safer" matches today, but the odds are very good though and worth the small risk. Start bank: £20 (01) Iwata - Yokohama, CS 1-0: £3.08 @ 7.2, 2+ goals: £16.92 @ 1.42, combined 1.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 20, 2008 Author Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Iwata 0:1 Yokohama :( I will have to think this through.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Hooloovoo's Dutching 1-0 and 2+, bank doubled! Iwata 0:1 Yokohama :( I will have to think this through.... Unlucky Mate.... :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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