Best Bet of the Day 16/09

[RussP]

4.00 Haydock Class 4 handicap over 6f on heavy ground here, with 13 expected to go to post. A few soft ground specialists here but I believe it is a very open heat and, despite decent credentials, will oppose the front 3 in the market. I think Makshoof is a worthy fav but isn't superbly handicapped. Has failed to win last 3 starts off this mark, whilst the progressive Woodsley House has another penalty and step up in class to overcome, and is opposed at the price. Soft ground specialist Balakiref has solid claims but 65 days off the track is enough to put me off, especially with all the wet weather around for the last 2 months being in its favour. The one I like, provided it handles the ground, is the top one:- Dream Theme (14/1 Paddy Power) - The pick of Dandy's 2 runners here and has a solid chance if the horse handles the ground. Is better than the bare form suggests in recent runs, all 2 classes higher in some good looking Class 2 handicaps. Dropped again in mark to 85 and is surely capable of winning off this mark. Good draw in 12 too so can grab the rail if that proves the place to be. Last run at Chester, ran a big race from the plum draw until badly hampered and then eased 1f out. Possibly found the mile a little too far. Previously to that had some good form at Goodwood and Ascot when running big races from unfavourable draws. Made good headway in both those races and could not be discounted until fading inside the last furlong. Drop in class and mark puts this horse in with a big shout, provided it handles the going. At 14's, I'll take the chance. EW

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet of the Day 16/09 2.40 Yarmouth Ten runners go to post for this class 4 nursery handicap over seven furlongs and the one that interests me is one from near the bottom of the handicap, Calahonda. Paul D’Arcy’s filly scored over course and distance in a class 6 maiden in August, pulling 4 lengths clear of the field. Very few of the runners have been seen since so its hard to assess the merit of that form, however, her form from her other three career runs suggests she could have a chance on her present rating of 72. On her debut at Wolverhampton she finished a two length second. Although her conqueror, Glorious Dreams, flopped on her next two runs, she was racing in listed races and so can be excused. What makes the form look interesting is that the third, The Magic of Rio, has proven effective since she’s started running in handicaps. After that Wolverhampton run she picked up a maiden of her own and has won two handicaps off 79 and then 84. Transcentral, fourth, and Hip Hooray, sixth, have also won since they have been sent handicapping too, albeit off marks lower than 72. Calahonda was then upped in trip to six furlongs for her next outing at Kempton. She finished a well beaten sixth with the field quite strung out at the finish, however, those that were infront have done the form no harm as 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th have all won since, admittedly in weaker races than this, but her sixth may not be as bad as it first seems. She made her handicap debut last time out at Newmarket but for the third consecutive race she was upped in trip and it may not have been in her favour. Racing over a mile she had every chance entering the final furlong but ended up finishing fourth, beaten by two and a half lengths and so today’s drop back to seven furlongs, over which she is proven, should suit. Even then though, there was no shame in her final placing, as the two immediately infront of her were rated 8 lbs superior and she was racing amonst several recent winners as even the 8th and 9th had gone into the race off the back of last time out wins. 6th has won since too. The one uncertainty facing her is the going, as she is yet to tackle anything softer than good, but she is by a triple Group (including 2000 Guineas) winner, Haafhd, won acted on soft, and so I’m prepared to have a little stab at the price. 0.5 pt EW