Guest davidcampbell Posted February 21, 2003 Share Posted February 21, 2003 Have developed a new way of making selections in this market and im gonna test it here for a while. Im not putitng any money on these selections (i was with the other ones) but this method is a lot more scientific than the last so hopefully more successful. I have tested it over 1 weekend's results (weekend of 8th/9th feb) in Prem and Division 1 games and from 21 games it would have thrown up 11 bets and 10 no-bets. OfThe 11 bets, 8 were winners (7out of 9 overs and 1 out of 2 unders). I was gonna backtest it over a few more weeks but i find it more fun to just test it here. Back later with this weekends selections. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted February 21, 2003 Share Posted February 21, 2003 Re: Over/under 2.5 goals (take 2) ok here we go ... games are divided into 3 categories - no bet, medium bet, strong bet. staking is 1 unit on medium bets and 2 units on strong bets. Included division one after all - (all odds from bet 365) 22nd-24th February 2003 16 bets from 22 games Strong Bets (overs) Charlton v Aston Villa 2units @ 2.05 :D Burnley v Derby 2 units @ 1.72 :( Leicester v Wimbledon 2 units @ 1.8 :D Portsmouth v Gillingham 2units @ 1.72 :( Sheff Utd v Norwich 2 units @ 1.9 :( Strong Bets (unders) Walsall v Watford 2 units @ 1.8 :D Medium Bets (overs) Chelsea v Blackburn 1 unit @ 1.8 :D Man City v Arsenal 1 unit @ 1.8 :D Sunderland v Middlesboro 1 unit @ 2.3 :D Birmingham v Liverpool 1 unit @ 2.05 :D Tottenham v Fulham 1 unit @ 1.85 :( Crystal Palace v Sheff Wed 1 unit @ 1.8 :( Ipswich v Grimsby 1 unit @ 1.66 :D Preston v Wolves 1 unit @ 1.72 :( Reading v Rotherham 1 unit @ 1.83 :D Medium Bets (unders) Coventry v Bradford 1 unit @ 1.83 :D Starting Bank : 100 units Staked : 22 units Current Bank : 78 units cheers:rolleyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted February 24, 2003 Share Posted February 24, 2003 Re: Over/under 2.5 goals (take 2) a pretty good first weekend (considering the situation with 5 minutes to go on saturday), with 16 bets and 10 winners (1 result to come) it was looking quite poor at one stage but i was saved dramatically on saturday with ... 2 goals in the last 3 minutes of charlton-villa 3 goals in last 4 minutes of chelsea-blackburn :eek :eek also suprising was the fact that sunderland-middlesboro was an 'over' and it came in - i reckoned that one had 0-0 written all over it (even said so to a mate who backed 0-0 - felt slightly guilty :lol ) anyway ... 22 units staked - returns 24.57 ---------------------------- startin bank : 100 units current bank : 102.57 units profit (loss) : 2.57 units units staked : 22 yield : 11.68% strike rate : 16 bets, 10 winners - 62.5% average odds : 1.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest SecondSight Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: Over/under 2.5 goals (take 2) Sorry to digress a little from systems, but the last 0-0 Boro played was the first game of the season, so you should have known a little better:) . The Racing Post said 0-0 too!>: Boro have played less defensively all season than the last 2 seasons, but have suffered because of a poor forward line especially away from home. The non-performing forwards were not playing on Saturday. They also haven't kept a clean sheet since October in any game, as the defenders have been encouraged to go forward, also Ehiogu missing since NYD hasn't helped defence. Ehiogu likely to be back on Saturday. As a general rule I would tend to go over 2.5 on Boro matches this season. Their defenders have been a first goalscorer on alot of occasions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spreaditabout Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 overs/unders david, if i can throw my twopenneth in..I would discard the selections with odds below 1.9...you are really looking for an Even money shot with 2.5 Goals. Obviously it will take more searching but if you are patient and "ask" for 1.9 or greater on Betfair it is surprising what you can get....in the "long run" it will make a massive difference. Taking odds of 1.66 or 1.72, I believe is gonna catch you over time....good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: overs/unders appreciate the input. im not actually putting any money on this system and just testing it for now. i was initially going to use betfair prices but felt it would be beter to use a bookies prices because you will be able to always (or nearly always) get them whereas betfair prices depend on the market (if that makes sense). :rolleyes im gonna continue with it for now, just using all games the system throws up -whatever the odds (unless they are ridiculously small) to see the outcomes. at average odds of 1.85, i reckon a 54% strike rate breaks even so if i can maintain that should break even. so as i said, appreciate the input, but i'll continue with all selections for now. cheers ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted February 25, 2003 Share Posted February 25, 2003 Re: overs/unders 25th February 2003 Medium Bet (over) Wolves - Watford 1 unit @ 1.8 :rolleyes Medium Bet (under) Juventus - Manchester United 1 unit @ 1.9 :rolleyes :rolleyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted February 27, 2003 Share Posted February 27, 2003 Re: overs/unders 26th February 2003 Strong bets - under Newcastle - Leverkusen 2units @ 2.1 :rolleyes Valencia - Roma 2 units @ 1.8 :rolleyes Medium bets - over Ajax - Arsenal 1 unit @ 1.95 :rolleyes Inter - Barcelona 1 unit @ 1.95 :rolleyes 6 units staked not very good today - 4 losers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted February 27, 2003 Share Posted February 27, 2003 Re: overs/unders well think we can safely say this system does not work on the european games. i had my doubts as to whether it would given that part of my analysis depends on head to heads. still, shall continue with it for a couple more weks but from now on, i shall split the analysis into two sections - domestic and european because i beleive the englsih premiership and division one games can be very profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted February 27, 2003 Share Posted February 27, 2003 Re: overs/unders Domestic Games Starting Bank - 100 units Current Bank - 101.57 units Profit (Loss) - 1.57 units Units Staked - 23 units Yield - 7% Number of bets - 17 Strike Rate - 59% (10/17) Average Odds - 1.85 ---------------------------------------- European Games Starting Bank - 100 units Current Bank - 93 units Profit (Loss) - (7 units) Unit Staked - 7 units Yield - (100%) Number of bets - 7 Stirke Rate - 0% (0/7) Average Odds - 1.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted February 28, 2003 Share Posted February 28, 2003 Re: overs/unders 1st - 3rd March Strong Bets (over) Middlesboro - Everton 2units @ 1.95 :rolleyes Arsenal v Charlton 2units @ 1.66 :rolleyes Strong Bets (under) Southampton v West Brom 2units @ 1.7 :D Medium Bets (over) Fulham v Sunderland 1 unit @ 2.05 :rolleyes Medium Bets (under) West Ham v Spurs 1 unit @ 1.9 :D a loss of 2.7 units on the weekend :rolleyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 4, 2003 Share Posted March 4, 2003 Re: overs/unders 4th - 5th March Strong bets (overs) Gillingham - Nottm Forest, 2 units @ 1.9 :D Wimbledon - Portsmouth, 2 units @ 1.72 :D Middlesboro - Newcastle, 2 units @ 1.95 :( Man.Utd - Leeds, 2 units @ 1.8 :D Medium Bets (over) Bradford - Leicester, 1 unit @ 1.8 :( Rotherham v Walsall, 1 unit @ 1.9 :( Strong Bets (under) Millwall - Burnley, 2 units @ 1.83 :D Medium Bets (under) Norwich - Reading, 1 unit @ 1.72 :D Stoke - Brighton, 1 unit @ 1.72 :D 14 units staked. Starting Bank - 100 units Current Bank - 102.81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 5, 2003 Share Posted March 5, 2003 Re: overs/unders A great midweek .... 6 bets up out of 9 (including 4 out of 5 strong bets) Domestic Games Starting Bank - 100 units Current Bank - 102.81 units Profit (Loss) - 2.81 units Units Staked - 45 units Yield - 6% Number of bets - 31 Strike Rate - 58% (18/31) Average Odds - 1.84 :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 7, 2003 Share Posted March 7, 2003 Re: overs/unders 8th - 10th March 2003 Strong Bets (over) Ipswich - Stoke, 2 units @ 1.66 :( Preston - Derby, 2 units @ 1.8 :D Arsenal - Chelsea, 2 units @ 1.8 :D Sheff.Utd - Leeds Utd, 2 units @ 2.00 :( Strong Bets (under) Watford - Burnley, 2 units @ 1.9 :D Medium Bets (over) Brighton - Rotherham, 1 unit @ 1.83 :( Nottm Forest - Grimsby, 1 unit @ 1.72 :D Medium Bets (under) Bradford - Crystal Palace, 1 unit @ 1.83 :( Coventry - Wimbledon, 1 unit @ 1.8 :( Southampton - Wolves, 1 unit @ 1.9 :D 15 units staked :rolleyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted March 7, 2003 Share Posted March 7, 2003 Re: overs/unders are you sure about Preston v Derby ?? I've got them under, both sides not exactly firing them in, both sides been involved in 1-0ers recently, and lots of last-minute goals. just a thought...:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 7, 2003 Share Posted March 7, 2003 Re: overs/unders i'll let you know tomorrow night ;) no, ive got preston-derby as an over - second highest rated over this weekend!! :eek told ya ;) incidentally, Ipswich, Stoke gets the highest rating so far for an over game!!! So that one should be a shooooo - in :rolleyes hmmm, highest 'over' rating becomes a 0-0 draw!!!! dearie me!! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 11, 2003 Share Posted March 11, 2003 Re: overs/unders Domestic Games Starting Bank - 100 units Current Bank - 102.43 units Profit (Loss) - 2.43 units Units Staked - 60 units Yield - 4% Number of bets - 41 Strike Rate - 56% (23/41) Average Odds - 1.84 slight loss on the weekend but 1 unit profit on "strong" bets. we shall see this week whether the european games really work with the system. :rolleyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 11, 2003 Share Posted March 11, 2003 Re: overs/unders 11th - 12th March Strong Bets (over) Gillingham - Wimbledon, 2 units @ 1.8 :D Barcelona - Leverkusen, 2 units @ 1.61 :( Inter milan - Newcastle, 2 units @ 1.9 :D Reading - Wolves, 2 units @ 1.83 :( Strong Bets (under) Ajax - valencia, 2 units @ 1.8 :D Real Madrid - Milan, 2 units @ 1.9 :( Medium Bets (over) Juventus - Deportivo, 1 unit @ 2.00 :D Man.Utd - Basel, 1 unit @ 1.70 :( Medium Bets (under) Crystal Palace - Ipswich, 1 unit @ 1.8 :D Sheff.Utd - Burnley, 1 unit @ 1.83 :( 16 units staked 14.8 units returned :rolleyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 14, 2003 Share Posted March 14, 2003 Re: overs/unders 15th - 16th March 2003 Strong Bets (overs) Blackburn - Arsenal, 2 units @ 1.95 :( **Brighton - Nottm Forest, 2 units @ 1.83 :( **Gillingham - Rotherham, 2 units @ 1.8 :( **Portsmouth - Wolves, 2 units @ 1.72 :( Reading - C.Palace, 2 units @ 1.9 :D Sheff.Wed - Ipswich, 2 units @ 1.83 :( Stoke - Sheff.Utd, 2 units @ 1.9 :( Walsall - Burnley, 2 units @ 1.83 :D **Man City - Birmingham, 2 units @ 1.85 :( Medium bets (overs) Charlton - Newcastle, 1 unit @ 1.85 :( Everton - West Ham, 1 unit @ 1.9 :( Medium Bets (unders) Aston Villa - Man.Utd, 1 unit @ 1.9 :D Leeds Utd - Middlesboro, 1 unit @ 1.66 :( Sunderland - Bolton, 1unit @ 1.7 :D Grimsby - Watford, 1 unit @ 1.8 :D wow!!!!! we shall really see whether this system i worth its salt now!!!! 24 units staked - 9 'strong' overs! expect barrowloads of goals (particularly in division 1) this weekend ;) ( for the record, the *'d games give the highest rating, and i am going to play these in a 4 or more goals yank!!! ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 14, 2003 Share Posted March 14, 2003 Re: overs/unders been doing some analysis of this system so far - will post the results sometime in the next few days - probably after this weekends matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 17, 2003 Share Posted March 17, 2003 Re: overs/unders what a dire weekend :rolleyes im away on holidays for a couple of days so i will update later this week - no more selections til next weekend!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted March 25, 2003 Share Posted March 25, 2003 Re: overs/unders havent updated for a week but here is the position after the games from 15th-16th march .... Domestic Games Starting Bank - 100 units Current Bank - 90.69 units Profit (Loss) - (9.31) units Units Staked - 90 units Yield - (10)% Number of bets - 60 Strike Rate - 50% (30/60) Average Odds - 1.84 European Games Starting Bank - 100 units Current Bank - 92.4 units Profit (Loss) - (7.6 units) Unit Staked - 17 units Yield - (44%) Number of bets - 13 Stirke Rate - 23% (0/13) Average Odds - 1.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 17, 2003 Share Posted April 17, 2003 Re: overs/unders having been unable to do anything on this over the last few weeks.... over/unders will be back with a vengeance this weekend, roaring into profit!!!!! watch this space ok, maybe not ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 18, 2003 Share Posted April 18, 2003 Re: overs/unders Fixtures 18th, 19th April Strong Bets - overs Ipswich - Portsmouth, 2 units @ 1.72 :D Reading - Nottm forest, 2 units @ 1.9 :( Man Utd - Blackburn, 2 units @ 1.75 :D Southampton - Leeds, 2 units @ 1.95 :D Bradford - Watford, 2 units @ 1.9 :D Burnley - Gillingham, 2 units @ 1.83 :( Strong Bets - unders Bolton - West Ham, 2 units @ 1.8 :D Stoek City - Wimbledon, 2 units @ 1.8 :( Wolves - Millwall, 2 units @ 1.9 :( Medium Bets - unders Sheff Wed - Grimsby, 1 unit @ 1.83 :D 19 units staked , 20.07 units returned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 20, 2003 Share Posted April 20, 2003 slight profit today!! woohoo Starting Bank - 100 units Current Bank - 91.76 units Profit (Loss) - (8.24) units Units Staked - 109 units Yield - (7.5)% Number of bets - 70 Strike Rate - 51% (36/70) Average Odds - 1.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 21, 2003 Share Posted April 21, 2003 Fixtures 21st 22nd April Strong Bets - overs Chelsea - Everton, 2 units @ 1.85 :D Newcastle - Aton Villa, 2 units @ 1.8 :( Coventry - Stoke, 2 units @ 2.00 :( Gillingham - Bradford, 2 units @ 1.9 :( Strong Bets - unders Blackburn - bolton, 2 units @ 1.8 :D Portsmouth - Reading, 2 units @ 1.9 :( Watford - Derby, 2 units @ 1.8 :D Medium Bets - overs West Ham - Middlesboro, 1 unit @ 2.1 :( Grimsby - Walsall, 1 unit @ 2.00 :( Millwall - Crystal Palace, 1 unit @ 1.83 :D Rotherham - Ipswich, 1 unit @ 1.9 :D Wimbledon - Preston, 1 unit @ 1.8 :( Medium Bets - unders Birmingham - Southampton, 1 unit @ 1.75 :( Liverpool - Charlton, 1 unit @ 1.85 :( Brighton - Sheff Wed, 1 unit @ 1.72 :D 15 bets, 22 units staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 22, 2003 Share Posted April 22, 2003 another losing day :-( Starting Bank - 100 units Current Bank - 86.11 units Profit (Loss) - (13.89) units Units Staked - 131 units Yield - (11)% Number of bets - 85 Strike Rate - 49% (42/85) Average Odds - 1.84 :rolleyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 22, 2003 Share Posted April 22, 2003 Latest Overall Total Bets - 85 Winners - 42 Losers - 43 Strike Rate - 49.41% Strong Bets Total - 46 Winners - 22 Losers - 24 Strike Rate - 47.83 Medium Bets Total - 39 Winners - 20 Losers - 19 Strike Rate - 51.28% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 22, 2003 Share Posted April 22, 2003 Latest Overall Profit / Loss = -13.89 units Overall Yield = -11% Strong Bets Stakes = 92 units Returns = 80.4 units Loss = 11.6 units Yield = -12.6% Medium Bets Stakes = 39 units Returns = 36.71 units Loss = 2.29 units Yield = 5.8% Over Bets Stakes = 94 units Returns = 72.03 units Loss = 21.97 units Yield = -23% Under Bets Stakes = 37 units Returns = 45.08 units Profit = 8.08 units Yield = +22% Strong Over = Loss 16.86 units, Yield = -23% Strong Under = Profit 5.26 units, Yield = +26% Medium Over = Loss 5.11 units, Yield = -23% Medium Under = Profit 2.82 units, Yield = +17% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest davidcampbell Posted April 26, 2003 Share Posted April 26, 2003 Selections 26th April Strong Overs Burnley - Sheff Wed, 2 units @ 1.8 :D Leeds - Blackburn, 2 units @ 1.95 :D West Brom - Liverpool, 2 units @ 1.95 :D Ipswich - Wimbledon, 2 units @ 1.61 :D Nottm Forest - Millwall, 2 units @ 1.72 :D Strong Unders Bolton - Arsenal, 2 units @ 2.00 :( Medium Overs Charlton - Southampton, 1 unit @ 2.00 :D Everton - Aston Villa, 1 unit @ 1.9 :D Sheff Utd - Wolves, 1 unit @ 1.9 :D Medium Unders Walsall - Derby, 1 unit@ 1.83 :( 10 bets, 16 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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