Guest mr smerds Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 Hi, I would like to try my system here which i've been using for the last 18 months. So far a have a strike rate of about 60% and average odds of around 1.77.(hpoefully this will continue). All i do is evalulate the percentage chance of each team (past results, form, goals for and against, league pos, etc.) and then bet on each team which has 50% or more chance of winning. The odds also need to be in my favour (60% chance of win = odds of 1.67 or more). Here's a few teams to start me off. All bets are 1 unit. Deportivo vs Athletic Bilbao Home 1.60 @ Aebet Mallorca vs Zaragoza Home 1.80 @ Centrebet Murcia vs Racing de Santander Home 2.15 @ Cosmobet Betis vs Espanyol Home 1.80 @ Europlay Basel vs St.Gallen Home 1.25 @ Bet365 Zürich vs Thun Home 1.80 @ Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest smudge Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 Re: 50% System welcome to the lounge Mr S and good luck with your system. just to question your inclusion of Depor & Basel as their odds are less than the 1.67 you mentioned.....or did i miss something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 Re: 50% System I don't think he means the odds must be greater than 1.67, just that the odds are in his favour. I guess if the fair odds of a Basel win are less than 1.25 then at 1.25 the odds are in his favour. Welcome and good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest smudge Posted September 4, 2003 Share Posted September 4, 2003 Re: 50% System yep, now reading it again in the light of day and see how i misread that yesterday :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr smerds Posted September 5, 2003 Share Posted September 5, 2003 50% System Not a bad start winning 4 out of 6 with Real betis throwing away a 2 goal lead. I'll update the current bank and other stats on sunday. Chateauroux v Creteil Home 2.16 @ betfair (2.06 with 5 % commission) Lorient v Amiens Home 2.00 @ worldbet Go Ahead Eagles v Veendam Home 1.50 @ Centrebet Kriens v Wohlen 2.02 @ betfair (1.92) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr smerds Posted September 6, 2003 Share Posted September 6, 2003 Re: 50% System 2 out of 4 for a slight loss (another last minute equalizer) Todays selections are: All Home Wins Brighton v Swindon 1.96 @ betfair (1.89) Darlington v Carlisle 2.12 @ betfair (2.02) Mansfield v Macclesfield 2.02 @ betfair (1.93) Oxford v Southend 1.61 @ Premierbet Torquay v Leyton O 2.04 @ Betfair (1.94) Albion Rovers v Elgin 1.67 @ Bet365 Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 99.95 ROI: -0.50% Bets: 10 Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 60% Avg Odds: 1.81 Avg Win Odds: 1.66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr smerds Posted September 7, 2003 Share Posted September 7, 2003 50% System A good day 4 out of 6. Can i change to a more aggressive staking system to suite the strike rate. I originally stated 1 unit per bet. Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 101.45 Profit 1.45 Units Staked: 16 ROI: 9.06% Bets: 16 Wins: 10 Strike Rate: 62.5% Avg Odds: 1.81 Avg Win Odds: 1.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr smerds Posted September 7, 2003 Share Posted September 7, 2003 50% System Todays Bets: All home wins PP-70 v Kuusankoski 1.72 @ Betfair (1.64) Pachuca v Puebla 1.75 @ Centrebet Santos v Tiburones 2.15 @ Centrebet Moss v Oslo Øst 1.85 @ Internet1x2 Start v Ørn-Horten 1.65 @ Victor Chandler Belenenses v Est.Amadora 1.70 @ Interwetten San Jose v New England 1.80 @ playit.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted September 7, 2003 Share Posted September 7, 2003 Re: 50% System How do you calculate your odds after commission because you seem to be doing yourself out of some money. By the looks of it you are doing Odds*0.95 to work out the odds after commission but in fact you should do ((Odds-1)*0.95)+1 eg. 1.72 on Betfair is (0.72*0.95)+1= 0.68+1= 1.68 Can anybody confirm this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr smerds Posted September 8, 2003 Share Posted September 8, 2003 50% System Your right i have been calculating the commission wrong. No bets today. Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 101.23 Profit 1.23 Units Staked: 22 ROI: 5.59% Bets: 22 Wins: 13 Strike Rate: 59.09% Avg Odds: 1.81 Avg Win Odds: 1.79 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted September 9, 2003 Share Posted September 9, 2003 Re: 50% System Bcrazy, confirmed. Its best to display three digits after the decimal for this calculation. Mr Smerds, you can stake whatever you wish as long as it is clearly stated. If you are going to enter the league with this you must post up the results after the games. If not, it is still preferred as it makes it much easier for people to follow. Is your total staked not now 23 or was one of the bets void? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr smerds Posted September 11, 2003 Share Posted September 11, 2003 50% system Ok for now now on i will include all results after the games have been played. Yes one of my games was void Moss v Oslo Ost this will now be done more clearly along with the results. Todays selection Just the won and a home win for: Aust.Vienna v Pasching 1.50 @ Victor Chandler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr smerds Posted September 11, 2003 Share Posted September 11, 2003 50% System Aust.Vienna v Pasching Won :) One Selection Today: Home Win Como vs Catania 1.75 @ Expekt Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 101.73 Profit 1.73 Units Staked: 23 ROI: 7.52% Bets: 23 Wins: 14 Strike Rate: 60.87% Avg Odds: 1.80 Avg Win Odds: 1.77 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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