A Realistic Long-Term Plan?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Just looking for the opinions of some of the more experienced members of the board of a possible betting plan. Would you consider this a realistic achievable target or am I away in cloud cuckoo land? Basic plan is to start with a £1000 bank and attempt to double this bank each year. Intended plan is to make an average 2% of bank each week (52 weeks x 2% = 104%). I'm to try to test my discipline and only bet on selections I am very confident about. As I bet on horses and football, it brings up a few amount of oppourtunities each week. Intention is to only have between 2-5 bets a week, never risking more than about 3% of my bank at a time. With the initial year this would involve making £20 profit a week. This could be achieved with awell researched EVS fav on the horses for £10 and 2 short priced horses to place @ 1.3 for £15 each. With discipline I believe picking these selections is quite possible. I know not all selections will win but betting at such prices I feel I should be OK with only 3%max at risk each time. After Year 1 the proposed bank will be £2000 and the percentages adjusted.ie. 2% per week = £40. Year 2 = £4000 Year 3 = £8000 Year 4 = £16,000 Year 5 = £32,000 Year 6 = £64,000 Year 7 = £125,000 I know at later stages getting bets matched may become more difficult but even at Year 7 the weekly target is £1250 which could be done with 3 x £400 Evs shots which shouldn't be impossibleto get matched(especially with the exchanges). I think the hardest part of this will bethe discipline and may have to run a seperate bank to support "riskier" bets to supplement any urges. I feel that a lot of peoples problems with gambling iswantingto make too much too quick. Punters want to make a thousand in a month/week/day of a bank of a few hundred. This seems to me to be a more realistic steady plan for anyone with the patience and real desire to profit. As only a youngster(turn 23 end of year) Im more than happy to wait if it puts me in a position of being able to only work part-time come my mid 30's. So that's the plan and my thoughts on it. Do I stand a chance or am I just dreaming away to myself??

[Guest madmick]

Re: A Realistic Long-Term Plan? In principle yes I think it is possible. However, with the number of bets you are talking about (5 per week) and 3% stakes, you would need to be making 13.3% yield to achieve your goal. I think this is too high to presume - it would be a very impressive performance if you can get this. I think 5% or so might be more realistic, which means you need to treble the number of bets or increase stake size. 3% is around where you would want to be I think so it means you are going to have to increase the number of bets you make. Good luck with it

[Guest Eboman]

Re: A Realistic Long-Term Plan? Good plan, you just need to recalculate, like madmick indicates 13,3% is a big yield to get. Some thoughts...

This could be achieved with awell researched EVS fav on the horses for £10 and 2 short priced horses to place @ 1.3 for £15 each.

Thats risking £40 and i believe that is 4% of your bank not 3% and if you intend to add some football bets your weekly risk will only increase. Better have another look at howmuch you want to risk per week.

Intended plan is to make an average 2% of bank each week

What will you do if you have one or two losing weeks ? double up the stake to get back on schedule ? dangerous avenue to take and one just about anyone here wil advise strongly against:lol ( see the martingale threads ) If you want to test your discipline this is a big pitfall to watch out for. The problem with your plan at the moment is you don't know your success rate yet. To set a target and determine your weekly actions from that you need to know what to expect in terms of yield and profit, so you need a basis of known average odds and strike rate. Without this you are only guessing. So is it realistic ? Well it could be, providing you re-thing the numbers and like mick indicates you will need a lot more bets to get sufficient turnover at a realistic yield. So i think the first year just see how far you get, with the discipline of sticking to your maximum loss risk per week. Then you will know what you can expect. The second year you can make a plan based on the result of the first year. Anyhow, i like your spirit, 'Mark my words Rodney, this time next year, we'll be millionairs' :smokin

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: A Realistic Long-Term Plan? Thanks for the opinions so far guys. Looked at a few figures and see what u mean about needing a larger number of bets. Im gonna start it off this weekend. I won't post all selections up here as sometimes have problems getting access daily but I will post updates on how things are going if anyone is interested. Eboman, when I said 3% stake I was referring to each individual bet, not for a weeks total. 2% a week is also just a guide. Some weeks will be more and some less but it's just there as a basic guide for me.No plans at all for doubling up or chasing although I know what you mean that this will again be another test of my discipline. Keep any comments coming.

[Guest spreaditabout]

Re: A Realistic Long-Term Plan? Your plan is realistic, in fact , it is the way a lot of serious punters think, it will work with Discipline. A big mistake made by many (this is not me, but proven over many years by bigger and better punters than me) is to start off by strictly following laid out rules, but, eventually succombing to our enemy--Greed. We tend to think that if our approach works and shows a nice little profit that somehow we should up the anti, and alas, from that moment on we have strayed and become careless, its human nature, the next step actually flies in the face of the advice to find more bets.. 5 bets a week is an indication that you will, and have the patience to WAIT for the right bet which gives (obviously in your opinion)..VALUE To try to increase the number of bets to chase the ideal YIELD can be fraught with danger, you will then start to place bets that you are not really comfortable with, we have all done this, we trawl Betfair in an idle moment actually looking for ANY bet. This is not the way to stay ahead IMO. Stick with your plan and give it a shot, in your own mind be patient and find a bit of Value when you think the Bookie has it wrong. good luck.

[Joe]

Re: A Realistic Long-Term Plan? A 50% increase year on year would be more than acceptable IMO. If you have the ability and the discipline to ride out the losing runs and bad years, then £1000 becomes about £50,000 in 10 years, thus supplying you with an annual income of £25,000 (on average of course ;) ). 250 bets per year is a good average I think, and with a 5% yield you need 4% (fixed) stakes. IF you bet mainly odds-on (average win expectcancy 70%), then your risk of bankrupcy will be about 7 to 8% in any one season (based on my simulations).