Great Leighs 21/8/08

[fintron]

Just looking to tomorrow's afternoon card at Grl and see Billy's Choreography is entered in the 3.50. How do you rate his chances Billy? I see your running him over the mile again tomorrow after you stepped him up LTO. Do you think he handles the polytrack okay? Good luck :hope

[billy the punter]

Re: Great Leighs 21/8/08 When Great Leighs first opened I had small success there but have since let most of the recent meetings go without having a bet. I'm still not 100% sure about the place from a punting point of view. I'm going there for the 2nd time tomorrow as we have two runners there, and it actually looks a very good card - on that basis I cannot abstain any longer and will have my betting boots on tomorrow in Essex. 2.05 When I first glanced at this race I thought that Leftontheshelf would take all the beating. She ran well on debut to chase home Jargelle before winning nicely on her 2nd start at Yarmouth with the 3rd winning NTO. Fairly treated and should find a nursery but there may be a better handicapped filly lurking lower in the weights. Zelos Girl ran well on debut, running on well into 3rd at 16/1 after looking green early. The form isn't great and has taken a few knocks. On this basis she went off shorter than she should've NTO when a well backed 4/9 favourite. She was obviously expected to improve on her debut running. The form on her win looks much better than it did at the time. The 3rd won a Thirsk maiden NTO and the 2nd bolted up in a nursery off a mark of 64. Zelos Girl looks particularly well treated off a mark of 68 and getting 16lb off Leftontheshelf she will be hard to beat if taking to the surface. All the yard's runners seem to be running well lately too. Zelos Girl 70% of stake 3.5 betfair Leftontheshelf 30% of stake 4 betfair Plus RFC 2.40 Although I probably won't be playing too heavy in this race, Willie Haggas' Ethaara looks a worthy favourite. She was subject of sustained support the day of her debut and could only manage 6th. Mixed messages from the form but she travelled like the winner and she could be better than she showed that day. Ethaara 100% of stake 3.15 (Class 3) Having backed Cheveton on his previous three starts I can't look any further than him for this. I still think he has more in the tank and it's just a case on continuing to follow him until I see a reason not to. RP says he is tacking the A/W at a much higher level than when he last run on it - that is true, but a pointless statement. He ran in dirt maidens early in the season, he wasn't allowed to run in Class 3 handicaps at that stage. :loon He certainly acts on polytrack, running above form on both occasions he has tackled it (ignoring racecourse debut). Was 2nd at 150/1 and 4th (but ran better than it suggests) at 33/1 in two Wolverhampton maidens. Both races worked out well and there is NO evidence he'll be less effective on the surface. Cheveton 100% of stake win 5 betfair 3.50 (Class 3) 24th June: Quote:

I made him a cert off 74 last season when he got that injury and Musselburgh and we did think he could be an 80 horse, so if he is as good as he was then he could cope with this new mark of 71.

3rd July: Quote:

I always knew Choreograhpy had the ability to be a high 70s horse, maybe an 80 horse.

6th August: Quote:

He runs off a career high mark of 76 but I always thought he'd be a high 70s horse (had an massive bet on him last year off 74 the day he got injured)

I was getting boring wasn't I? Well for every time I've said something like that on here I've said it ten times elsewhere. Well Choreography's last win was off 76 and he has been raised (harshly again) 5lb - his new mark is 81. I always knew he was an 80s horse. :lol Being rated 81 makes life tough with regards to placing, we're pretty much handicapped out of Brighton handicaps which is a shame as he loves it there. He needs a bend so I'm hopeful he'll like it around here. He ran well on his previous A/W start when beaten only 3l on his seasonal debut last year. I'm not convinced this race will suit, or that he is an A/W horse, but most act on poly thesedays and like I say he seemed to run well on dirt last time. The mark doesn't bother me, I think there are still more races in him this year but this does look a hard race. He is really well though so you can't wait forever for the perfect race I suppose. One thing is for sure, as he has been ignored by all (again!) he is a ridiculous price at 19.5 currently on betfair. Grand Vizier, Dear Maurice, Trans Siberian and Always A Rock are horses I've followed this season and all have chances here. Grand Vizier looks a better horse on the A/W, Dear Maurice flopped only due to ground last time and previously looked on the way up, Windsor win previously worked out well. Trans Siberian has to put a poor run LTO behind him but ran well here. Always A Rock looked at home on poly earlier in the season and a return to it could spark him up again. Choreography 30% of stake 25 betfair Dear Maurice 30% of stake 6.8 betfair Always A Rock 15% of stake 12 betfair Grand Vizier 15% of stake 11 betfair Trans Siberian 10% of stake 13 betfair Plus combos 4.25 Hopeful that Royal Power can run a good race too. Masaalek is a worthy favourite and won well on poly earlier in the year. Royal Power acted on dirt on his previous try and has E/W chances. Masaalek 50% of stake Royal Power 25% of stake win 21 betfair Royal Power 25% of stake place 4 betfair 5.00 Ornella was mugged LTO at Lingfield, suffering from a bad ride in a slowly run race. Winner without a penalty (famous last words). Tri Nations could be going the right way again, yard does well here and is overpriced. Ornella 60% of stake 6 betfair Tri Nations 40% of stake 13.5 betfair