Lingfield 18/08/08

[billy the punter]

I haven't posted much lately due to time etc so I'd thought I'd make extra effort this week. Hopefully it will be a busy week on here. 2.30 A decent little maiden and we know plenty about the runners. They have run 49 times (most unlucky not to have won already) between them and four of the five runners are rated 73 or above. King's Wonder's prominence in the market, press confidence and rating baffles me. He has struggled since running in handicaps on his past five runs and it's possible he is regressing. He was given a tough mark though due to getting close to some decent types in maidens - he may've been flattered by those runs and as a result his chances since may've been rated out by the handicapper, his original mark of 80 looks very harsh. His best races have come in maidens perhaps proving his handicap mark does not represent his ability, given that others in the field have run up to better marks in handicaps he shouldn't be a 5/2 chance. If he wasn't flattered by those maiden runs then he has regressed (based on runs since), either way I cannot fancy him at the price. Seventh Cavalry is another who looks to have been over rated by the handicapper. His first two runs (behind Kensington Oval/Ancient Lights) looked a lot better at the time than they do now and it's now surprise the handicapper has shown a little leniency since first giving him a mark of 81. Didn't look like a horse to follow when I saw him chase home Last Three Minutes but is of interest as the headgear is off and he is now being tried at shorter trips. If Storm Sir shows his debut form (2nd to Paco Boy) then he would be a steering job! Unfortunately, the game isn't that easy. After needing his seasonal debut he put in two decent performances. Unlucky after being impeded behind Nightjar at Warwick and then he wasn't disgraced behind Light From Mars in a decent handicap at Sandown. After that I thought it was a matter of time before Storm Sir won a race (something I've never said about the above two horses) and I certainly thought he'd win your average class 5 maiden without any fuss. However, his last run is very worrying. He was a long way last in a Class 3 handicap at Newmarket - it was a decent race but he was beaten a long way and it has to be seen as a below form run. I'm suprised Jollyhockeysticks is still a maiden (disqualified earlier in the season). She is at least as good as her mark of 63 and she WILL win a race in the future. It may come in a handicap though as one of these colts should be too good for her today. This leaves Meydan Dubai, the highest rated (80) of the field and the horse who is rightly at the head of the market. The Racing Post voice concerns about his temperament, mentioning that he is winless in 13 attempts so far. While I agree this is never a good thing he has actually only constested three maidens. In the ten runs outside of maiden company his average SP is over 18/1! Can he really be blamed for not getting his head in front when he has clearly been highly tried? The sweeping "no wins from 13" statement from the RP doesn't even tell half the story. He has run some fine races despite being highly tried too. He was beaten just over a length in the Chesham (7f) at Royal Ascot last year. He started at 8/15 and evens for his next two starts (his last two in maiden company). He was 3rd and 2nd in those races and they are the reasons why he is seen as unreliable by some. Those races were at an unsuitable 5f and 6f, the shortest he has constested and I'm not sure he lost that much in defeat anyway considering the races were won by the decent Rash Judgment and Lession In Humility. That was the end of his 2yo career and he started this season by finishing 5th to Duntulm in a decent Newmarket handicap (1m). Despite not getting the best of runs he beat today's rival King's Wonder by 1.5l and Meydan Dubia is 10lb better off at the weights today also. Outclassed NTO when 8th to Yadree (1m) in a race that worked out very well. Ran ok at Epsom (7f) after before putting in arguably in best performance of the season at Royal Ascot (7f). He was a 5.5l 9th to Regal Parade in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (Lovelace and Laa Rayb just ahead). It was a great performance for a 3yo and he was 6th of the far side group. He went into my notebook after that and I thought it would be a matter of time before he did get his head in front. He did disappoint on his next two starts, the first over a too far 10f and the 2nd when suffering for attempting to mix it with the front runner who went off at a break-neck pace. I visor was fitted for his last three starts, it worked first time when he chased home the decent Cape Hawk but he ran terrible on his A/W debut at Kempton after, back to form LTO at Windsor when a close 4th in a decent class 4 handicaps. I think he'll be better without the visor here. Ok, he is inconsistent but he has more good runs than bad and if he runs within a stone of his best he would win this with ease. The poor run on his A/W debut is my only concern but that was a Kempton and I'm prepared to forgive any horse running poor there. I'm prepared to give him a chance here, it's the first time he has been entered in a race that he is entitled to win this season. It's a competitive little maiden and despite what I said earlier, any of these can win this, it's just that certain runners are underpriced in my opinion. I'd probably price this up something like: evens Meydan Dubai, 9/2 Storm Sir, Seventh Calvary, 5/1 Jollyhockeysticks, 6/1 King's Wonder. I should probably lay King's Wonder (given MY opinions, don't be swayed if you fancy it) but I'm not a layer and never will be. ;) Meydan Dubai 100% of stake (will be at least 6/4 I would imagine, possibly a fair bit bigger as many will want to take him on).

[fintron]

Re: Lingfield 18/08/08 Good to see you back Billy, you been busy partying after the Choreography win?! ;) 4.30 I usually try and avoid betting in large fields like this if I can but I'm struggling to find much today, and even though he's racing from the bottom of the handicap, I think H Harrison could go okay today. I followed him last year after a couple of wins at Chester when he continued to race over CD there. Unfortunately, he failed to win whenever I backed him, but he is down to an attractive mark of 63 now, bearing in mind he won off 80 on turf 12 months ago. He has previously won on the polytrack - at Wolv in March last year - and showed LTO over CD that he can still act on the surface. He ended up losing by 0.5 lengths to Dawson's Creek, but had a horse rated 12 lbs higher comfortably 3 lengths back in 3rd. At 8/1 with Lads he's backable EW.