cains Posted December 22, 2003 Share Posted December 22, 2003 spread sheet hey danny.. Would you mind mailing me the spread sheet.?? This looks very interesting.. :) / cains [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted December 22, 2003 Share Posted December 22, 2003 Deportivo v Espanyol Deportivo 2 Espanyol 1 Another winner! :D 22pts profit after commission today. so, 4 winning bets from 5 and +67pts up so far... Dan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted December 22, 2003 Share Posted December 22, 2003 Re: Boof Bonk Gagonche.... Hmsh.... A disappointing start to my correct score gambit. A 0-2 scoreline not what I expected at all. Maybe I should just ready Danny Cash's tips instead.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted December 22, 2003 Share Posted December 22, 2003 Question to moderators Moderators - if I wanted to enter this system in the competition would I have to start from scratch, or could I include the 5 selections already posted? I accept I would have to change the starting bank to 100pts. Could I therfore adapt each bet to a 10pts total stake? (the current 30pts would not reflect a true proportion of a 100pt bank) Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted December 23, 2003 Share Posted December 23, 2003 Re: Question to moderators ... as a footnote to the above request, the post would only be my personal selections from a strategy rather than selections from a system consisting of clear defined rules hence the uncertainty of inclusion of such a thread. The reason for the request is purely to keep it in line with other threads in this section and to abide by your lounge rules, i.e including Yield and average odds records etc... Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted December 23, 2003 Share Posted December 23, 2003 Sod's law!!! OK, so why is that when I have to travel down to my Mums for xmas there are 2 outstanding games that this strategy was designed for!!?? I will have no access to an internet and my beloved friend Betfair but I cannot resist these two boxing day fixtures and will have to trudge down to my local high-street bookmakers, which incidently are offering damn good prices on correct scores it has to be said. Manchester Utd v Everton Surely a qualifier - best priced 2/7 or 1.29 with Coral for the win. Have a look at these prices:- 1-0 10.00 (WH) 2-0 8.00 (WH) 3-0 8.00 (WH) 2-1 13.00 (WH) 3-1 11.00 (LAD) Fed into the spreadsheet create a 1.93 bet. For those amongst us who fear 4-0 (11.00 with LAD's) we can obtain a 1.64 win bet by backing 6 events. Yeah lets bend the rules it's christmas for God's sake! ;) Arsenal v Wolverhampton Best price 1/6 or 1.17 with Corals again. 1-0 11.00 (WH) 2-0 10.00 (WH) 3-0 7.5 (WH) 2-1 19.00 (WH) 3-1 12.00 (WH) - well done William Hill, top price everywhere! So this creates an outstanding 2.17 return!! :eek Hold on though, this game definately needs a bit of debate/banter/tweaking. Personally I was thinking adding 4-0 again at 9.00 with Lad's creating a 1.75 bet.... Or how about this 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 (15.00 LAD) AND 6-0 (21.00 LAD) - a 1.82 bet??? All three options are better than corals 1.17 but which option do you agree with? Help?! I will make my final decision on Xmas Eve before I go - let the banter commence... Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted December 23, 2003 Share Posted December 23, 2003 Re: Sod's law!!! Personally I wouldnt back the 4-0 option for the Man Utd match as 11.00 just doesn't seem value but that option does seem to make the Arsenal game a lot safer- it's just if they start scoring 5 or 6 then you can see Wolves nicking a goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted December 23, 2003 Share Posted December 23, 2003 stay Hey.. If i were you, i would stick to the 5 scores you have taken so far.. As its christmas, but not as many games as usuly, but still many, in short amount of time, And players may well rest them selfes a bit.. And usuly there is not so many highscoring games i christmas.. Here is arsenals, and man. uniteds games for the last few christmas. From 21 dec to 1 jan 2002-03 Arsenal - Middlesbrough 2 - 0 West_Bromwich - Arsenal 1 - 2 Arsenal - Liverpool 1 - 1 Arsenal - Chelsea 3 - 2 Blackburn - Manchester_U 1 - 0 Middlesbrough - Manchester_U 3 - 1 Manchester_U - Birmingham 2 - 0 Manchester_U - Sunderland 2 - 1 From 22 dec to 2 jan 2001-02 Liverpool - Arsenal 1 - 2 Arsenal - Chelsea 2 - 1 Arsenal - Middlesbrough 2 - 1 Manchester_U - Southampton 6 - 1 Everton - Manchester_U 0 - 2 Fulham - Manchester_U 2 - 3 Manchester_U - Newcastle 3 - 1 From 22 dec to 2 jan 2000-01 Liverpool - Arsenal 4 - 0 Arsenal - Leicester 6 - 1 Arsenal - Sunderland 2 - 2 Charlton - Arsenal 1 - 0 Manchester_U - Ipswich 2 - 0 Aston_Villa - Manchester_U 0 - 1 Newcastle - Manchester_U 1 - 1 Manchester_U - West_Ham 3 - 1 Off course some few games, hits outside your system. But Man. utd. 5 out 6 games at home hits your system. For arsenal its 3 out 7. But when united meets lower class teams, then arsenal playes chelsea twice and liverpool once.. But i think i take the 5 scores you normaly uses, and then maybe add 1-1 to united game... :) Hope it was some help for you / cains Merry christmas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted December 23, 2003 Share Posted December 23, 2003 Boof's Law A possibility could be to remove the 1-0 scoreline from the Arsenal game...? If Arsenal score one, they would surely get a second against a poor Wolves side. I saw them concede 5 against Spurs, so I think a 1-0 result is less likely. Wolves scored twice away at Spurs and Villa recently, but Arsenal's defence has got to be better than those two teams....They have conceded 1 in their last 3 home games. It was against Spurs so the local derby factor evened the teams a little. The two clean sheets came against Blackburn and Fulham who surely have a better frontline than Wolves.... I'm not sure of the odds as I am at work and don't have access to the mighty "Ganculator", but I might have a look at.... Bet365 3-0 7.5 4-0 7.5 5-0 9.0 Pays 2.65 I think 2-1 is 18/1... Best of British to you all..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted December 24, 2003 Share Posted December 24, 2003 Boxing Day selections Thanks for you input chaps. I have decided to go with the original 5 score strategy for Man Utd v Everton creating a 1.93 bet as previously laid out. Standard 30pts stake. Arsenal v Wolves is also a bet but including 4-0 @ 9.00 with Ladbrokes creating a 1.75 return. Again 30pt stake. (william hill's odds on 2-1 @ 19.00 are absoultely outstanding!!) The beauty of this system/strategy is that you can basically do how ever many score-lines you see fit. However I am going to try and abide by the 5 original scores wherever possible and I'm only including 4-0 in the Arsenal game because the profit is still exceptionally better than the normal home-win price. Good luck in whatever you guys decide to do and happy xmas. I shall return in the New year for more banter. Dan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted December 27, 2003 Share Posted December 27, 2003 Damn ferguson Damn ferguson... Why should he score in last minute for everton?? they had already lost the game... THAT F*** Anyhow. My @1.90 on arsenal was outstanding. :hat I kept the originally 5 score lines... Thanks.... / cains Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Eboman Posted December 28, 2003 Share Posted December 28, 2003 Re: 5 SCORE STRATEGY Very interesting DanyCash, Have been trying a little variation myself where i bet on the best 6 scores AND lay the favorite in the match odds market. Pretty safe, low profits, i know, just having some fun really. So a losing bet occurs when the favorite wins AND makes more than 3 goals. Less than 4 goals and there is profit. Favorite loses the match or draw means money back. e.g. Manchester Utd - Everton Bank = 40 , odds taken from Betfair, commission 5% 1-0 [email protected] 2-0 [email protected] 3-0 [email protected] 2-1 4.00@12 3-1 [email protected] 3-2 1.05@50 Lay Man Utd [email protected] Result : 3-2 = 26.37 profit, nice. I'm not into Football myself really, so don't have any data available, could someone check for me : of all the matches in the premier league where the favorite started with odds below 1.45 how many matches ended with 4 goals or more for that favorite ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted December 28, 2003 Share Posted December 28, 2003 Re: 5 SCORE STRATEGY Using prices from Bet365 there were 19 games, 2 draws and 3 losers. Of the winners, only one game had 4 goals, a 4-0 victory. All were home favourites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Eboman Posted December 28, 2003 Share Posted December 28, 2003 Re: 5 SCORE STRATEGY Thanks OddsAgainst, that means that out of 19 games we get : 5 money back, ( 3 lose, 2 draw ) 1 loser, ( 4-0 score ) 12 winners, very nice merits further investigation i would say... 8o just had another one : Chelsea - Portsmouth final score 3 - 0, bank = 50, profit = 15.19 Celsea Layed [email protected] , liability=14.31 1-0 [email protected] 2-0 [email protected] 3-0 [email protected] 2-1 5.58@12 3-1 6.09@11 3-2 1.52@44 LOSE correct score : 7.12 8.58 5.58 6.09 1.52 = 28.89 WIN correct score : 59.94 Profit = 59.94-28.89 = 31.05 - 5% commission = 29.5 LOSE match odds : 14.31 Overall profit = 29.5 - 14.31 = 15.19 :D DannyCash : sorry i misspelled your name in the previous post, moderators please get the edit function back on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Eboman Posted December 28, 2003 Share Posted December 28, 2003 Re: Correction Correction on Manchester Utd - Everton forgot to take the Lay loss off the profit :o , so overall profit on that match was : Bank=40, profit=13.23 Sorry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted December 30, 2003 Share Posted December 30, 2003 Update Man Utd 3 Everton 2 :rolleyes Arsenal 3 Wolves 0 :D Bets:7 Win: 5 Loss: 2 Strike Rate%: 71.43 Profit(to 10pt level stakes): +20.80 Bank(100): 120.80 Yield%: 29.71 Av Odds: 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted December 30, 2003 Share Posted December 30, 2003 Re: Correction Figures for last 2 seasons and part of the 2001/2 season based on average odds so not strictly comparable with Bet365 figures for this season. matches odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted December 30, 2003 Share Posted December 30, 2003 Re: Correction Danny, sorry for the delay in answering, I missed your question. Of course you can enter the league. Best idea is to start a new thread and copy the bets you have already proofed to the first post and keep a running total from there. As soon as you have the minimum number of bets you are in. You don't want any discussion in the new thread, just your picks and results. This makes it easier for us to verify records. Discussion can of course continue in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted December 30, 2003 Share Posted December 30, 2003 Re: Correction Assuming from Osesame's data that you have to include 3 - 2 wins for the home team in your bet (and I don't think DannyCash does this) then in order to have a positive win expectation for this type of correct score bet I reckon you need to get odds of better than 1.75. I've calculated this as follows :- Chance of winning from Osesame's data = (100 - 22) / 137 ie. 0.57 approx So chance of not winning = 0.43 approx So break even point for 30 point stake is when Expected Win Return = Expected Losses (30 x 0.57 x Odds) = 30 x 0.43 Odds = 0.75 approx. All comments welcome. From what I've seen in this thread it should be possible to get odds better than 1.75 but it would be useful to know how many of the matches in Osesame's data ended 3 - 2 so we could compare the expected return with the odds that Danny has been actually getting. Of course you can almost certainly improve the return and eliminate some of the losers by looking at other factors for the matches you are considering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Eboman Posted December 31, 2003 Share Posted December 31, 2003 Re: Alternative 6 score and Lay I was just playing about really, I only included 3-2 because it was available at great odds, ( so Manchester - Everton: well,well, lucky me :smokin ) and Layed because i wanted to stay on a more safe side 8) . That a hole different ballgame than DannyCash. Agree, time for some serious back checking of statistics. ( someone else please, i'm concentrating on the horses for now ) DeepBlueDevilFish, i think you need to re-calculate, i asked for matches < 1.45 because at that point you can no longer make a profit using 6 scores AND Laying. That's NOT valid for the system DannyCash has started. Sorry for the confusion. ( also, don't hold me to this, only did some quick calculations, could be wrong ) Meanwhile, best of luck DannyCash, go for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted December 31, 2003 Share Posted December 31, 2003 Re: Correction Fair point Eboman. However, I've looked back through DannyCash's posts and the "single" odds for all the matches that he's mentioned are as follows :- Man U - Man C 1.42 Chel - Bolt Couldn't find this Ars - Black 1.44 Rangers - Hearts 1.29 Depo - Espanyol 1.28 Man U - Everton 1.29 Ars - Wolves 1.17 So these odds are all actually less than the 1.45 that was applied to Osesame's data. However I guess Osesame's data is only for the Premier league (Osesame ?) so the Scottish and Spanish games won't count. And of course we do need the 3 - 2 results removed as we've already mentioned ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted December 31, 2003 Share Posted December 31, 2003 Re: Alternative 6 score and Lay Yes this was for premier league only. I think in the calculations you only need to take into account the 100 bets that were not no lose bets. This gives a strike rate of 78% requiring odds of 1.282 to break even. from the two examples it would seem the odds are a shade over 1.3. I should also point out that the stakes used in the 1st example did not all give the same return, and the 1.05 was slightly overstaked.At odds of 50 this can make a considerable difference to the returns and when betting to small margins the difference between success and failure. There were just 3 matches odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted December 31, 2003 Share Posted December 31, 2003 Re: Italy Some info odds 4 home goals strike rate 83.6% odds and not home wins 1.09-1.20 1/12 1.21-1.22 1/13 1.23-1.24 2/13 1.25-1.26 5/16 1.27-1.28 3/15 1.29-1.30 7/19 1.31-1.32 5/17 1.33-1.34 4/17 1.35-1.36 4/12 1.37-1.39 4/15 1.40-1.42 5/15 1.43-1.44 4/9 p.s. Chelsea Bolton 1-2 1.28 4.57 8.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 Re: Spain Thought this might be useful odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 3, 2004 Share Posted January 3, 2004 Middlesbrough v Notts county Happy New Year! :D Stonking value on this game in the FA cup tomorrow people! Boro are best price 1.25 for the win and the lowest home win price on the coupon (english). :eek I know that Boro have struggled to score in their last 5 home games but looking at the opposition they should really have it easier tomorrow. At least they won't ruin the system and score 4! I hope, anyway. 1-0 10.00 Bet365 2-0 8.00 Bet365 3-0 8.00 Bet365 2-1 13.00 Bet365 or 14.50 Betfair 3-1 11.00 Lad's or 12.00 Betfair Some cracking value in there. Sticking with the best odds it becomes a 1.99 bet. No danger of 4-0, the only real danger is 0-0 but that is an incredible 18.50 as I speak with Betfair!! So with the usual 5 and 0-0 it becomes a 1.80 bet, much better than the 1.25 whichever bookies you use. I'm definately sticking with this game tomorrow but will post my final selections/scores on the other thread depending on team news etc.. Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks Dan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted January 3, 2004 Share Posted January 3, 2004 Re: Spain You can increase the odds even more if you shop around:# 1-0 11.00 Stan James 2-0 9.00 Stan James Makes the price 2.08 :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted January 3, 2004 Share Posted January 3, 2004 Re: Middlesbrough v Notts county 3-0 8.50 WillHill Makes price 2.12 :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted January 3, 2004 Share Posted January 3, 2004 Re: Spain Your teasing us now Bcrazy Does look like a tasty price :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted January 3, 2004 Share Posted January 3, 2004 Re: Spain 2-1 15.00 BlueSq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted January 3, 2004 Share Posted January 3, 2004 Re: Spain I thought so too Norfolk and now I don't even care if it wins or loses- went to put the 3-0 bet on at WillHill and found £58.50 in an account I'd forgotted about (I'd been in the middle of doing their casino promo and forgotten) and then went to BlueSq where I haven't been for ages and found £28 :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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