Guest Lardonio Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 Re: DISASTER! The system has taken a tumble in 1 day! Quoted this from your other thread. Come on Danny, the system is good. You have to expect the odd losing weekend - next time you might get 3 wins instead of 3 losses. No need to lose faith. All the picks were good ones. Now I feel like using one of the new symbols :gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 Re: keep the thread going I think with this system you should also be comparing the results with what you would have achieved by just backing the straight wins at your 1.17's and 1.25's. I still think it's a very good idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Re: keep the thread going Danny, your thread reminds me of one started by Jablunka about laying draws and betting in running. Many people including myself were soon convinced by the simplicity of the idea. I started laying draws and started loosing in every single match. After a month I decided to call it a day. But I learned a lot in this time about odds movement on Betfair and similar things. The main conclusion was that you should be very careful in choosing the games. Your idea likewise seemed very appealing to me at first. I did some research and came to the conclusion that it requires the same thing: very careful selection of matches. I think your system is promising, but I personally would use it in conjuction with some sort of covering (perhaps with AH bets) and weather condition analysis. You should not be put off by the latest results because with low number of bets produced by your system such thinghs are to be expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Runar K Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Re: keep the thread going Yes, your system is good, Danny. A few bad results will happen no matter what strategy you use, you shouldn't be put off by this. All your posts reveal that you're a thinking punter, and your posts and ideas are well worth reading. You have the capability to "think outside the box" - never a bad quality to have for a punter. So chin up and keep at it - and I'm confident you will show an overall profit with this (very good) system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Re: keep the thread going Thanks for the kind words of encouragement people although at no stage did I say I would be stopping the thread! When I first started the thread I was looking for a strike rate of around 70% which in my eyes would return a decent profit. I've had 15 "official" selections but I think once I start approaching the 50+ mark we will all see if it is a worthwhile endeavour. I have been backing the selections myself and my account is not damaged, it's just that it's gone back to where I started from, which is a little disheartening. However, I have learnt a lot, even from this early stage and will keep up the selections and debate. Cheers for now, Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 He kept us waiting, but he's Back... I thought you'd gone the same way as Juninho Man for a moment there Danny...!!! :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 24, 2004 Share Posted January 24, 2004 Re: keep the thread going I'm trying Roma and Milan this week (against Udinese and Ancona) Standard 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1 For Milan I got about 2 in odds (compared to 1,15 ca. usual odds, got to be value!) Roma only 1,70 (compared to ca 1.40), but they seem to win with these numbers often so I think it's value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 24, 2004 Share Posted January 24, 2004 Saturday 24th January Lardonio I shall be staying firmly in GB this weekend, don't want to get my fingers singed again. Good luck to you sir. Portsmouth v Scunthorpe is my main bet. Pompey are 2/7 best price, using the system we gain a few pounds and create a 1.93 bet: 1-0 10.00 B365 2-0 8.00 B365 3-0 8.00 B365 2-1 13.00 B365 3-1 11.00 Lads I shall check team news tomorrow before deciding for definate. Arsenal v Boro was tempting but after the last loss on the system (4-1) and Boros win mid-week I think the result is uncertain. I am hoping for a draw in reality. Also tempted to break all the rules and go with Chelsea 1-0 2-0 3-0 4-0 5-0 creating a 1.74 bet away from home, compared with 1.14 @ Corals. Of course this has no place in the official postings but I thought it was worth a mention if you're stuck for something to do tomorrow lunch time! See ya 2m then. Dan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 24, 2004 Share Posted January 24, 2004 0102030405 A slight twist on the Chelsea selection suggested by DC. I have plumped for 0-3, 0-4, and 5 or more goals @ 1.9 Chelsea will surely score more than 2 in 90 mins. The 5 or more pick also allows for a potentially annoying 1-4, or 0-6 (or more) scoreline. Well, we'll see. Boof Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 24, 2004 Share Posted January 24, 2004 Re: Saturday 24th January Great idea BBB. was the +5 goals available on Betfair or better priced elsewhere??? Dan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 24, 2004 Share Posted January 24, 2004 Re: 0102030405 BBB, if you cover the 0-3 and ANY UNQUOTED @ 2.76 on Betfair you will account for 0-4 and higher... before commission this totals 2.05 - thanks for the idea as I agree that Chelsea SHOULD score more than 2... we'll see! Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted January 25, 2004 Share Posted January 25, 2004 Boof Bonk BOOPS...!!!! I really thought Chelsea would get 3...they had enough chances. Apologies to those affected by my irresponsible post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 25, 2004 Share Posted January 25, 2004 Re: 0102030405 Yes I think we were too greedy there BBB, as the 1.74 on offer for the original suggestion was a vast improvement on a straight away win! Still, only a little bit lost, come on Pompey! Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 25, 2004 Share Posted January 25, 2004 Sunday - same again? After suggesting Chelsea 1-0...5-0 @ 1.74 and changing my mind :sad , I may just have a small bet on Man Utd to follow suit purely to keep my interests going in this game. I am very optimistic about this one coming in. Yes Man Utd will win no matter what team they play. Yes I am confident they will keep a clean sheet. Yes I am confident they won't score more than 6. Just a small bet... 0-1 10.00 Bet365 0-2 8.00 Bet365 0-3 7.50 Bet365 0-4 9.00 Tote 0-5 15.00 :eek Tote 1.87 is good enough for me! No official pick today, but pleased with Portsmouth score yesterday to put the system back in the black. Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 26, 2004 Share Posted January 26, 2004 Re: 0102030405 Northampton 0 Manchester 3 :cheers Thank you Carroll, crossbar and post for keeping the minnows out! :b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 31, 2004 Share Posted January 31, 2004 Manchester Utd v Southampton A definate qualifer. Utd have good form at home and I am sure they will win, especially after last weeks defeat at Wolves. Their 0-0 draw against Newcastle recently was surprising but Newcastle are a better outfit than Southampton at the moment IMO. Recent Southampton away form is pretty dire - lost 2-1 to Birmingham, lost 2-0 to Fulham, beat Liverpool 2-1?? and lost to Villa 1-0. Saha will be keen to impress and I can't see anything other than a home win here. 1.25 is the standard price for a home win, using the Cash method, it returns 1.73 (remember I'm not using exchange markets) 1-0 8.5 2-0 7.0 3-0 8.0 2-1 11.0 3-1 10.0 All prices BET365 except 2-1 UKB. Cheers Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted January 31, 2004 Share Posted January 31, 2004 Celtic???!!! Didn't Celtic win the other week 2-0 when they where 1/20???They are 1/14 to beat Kimarnock today (1.07) I' m very tempted to utilise the score method creating a 1.68 bet, on the basis that they will win, won't conceed and won't score more than 6. It's extremely good value IMO. 1-0 11 BET365 2-0 8 UKB 3-0 7 UKB 4-0 8 LADS 5-0 9 LADS =1.68 Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jocconuts Posted February 6, 2004 Share Posted February 6, 2004 Re: Manchester Utd v Southampton Cheers for the email danny...moved house and not been on internet for while. Spreadsheet will come in handy...TA :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest SecondSight Posted February 9, 2004 Share Posted February 9, 2004 Danny System Danny - Did you read Racing Post article yesterday (7/2) on reduction in odds on low correct scores for very short priced games, by the big bookmakers this week? The are going to quote 11/2 on many 1-0, 2-0 scores for short priced games such as 1-5 etc, breaking away from their normal odds tables. I noticed Boro/Notts County had special odds in Hills, which were generally poorer than the normal odds. The bookmakers said they have been taking hits on these bets. They quoted that their odds are out with the betting exchanges on these correct scores. This suggests your system does work, but they are cracking down on it. The article did say that the Tote will offer 200/1 on any named score, which give potential at the top end of scores, 4-3 etc. Not that there is many of them :lol Cardiff here we come :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest raylin47 Posted February 9, 2004 Share Posted February 9, 2004 laughing all the way to the bank Used the system on 5 games this weekend Arsenal,Chelsea B Munich Real Madrid and AC milan always use Betfair and odds always workout at 1.9 to 2.0 As long as the odds double up on the match odds I'm happy . In games which are in running I lay off the favorite if they score first and also cover the eventuality of 5 or more goals been scored if I feel a high scoring game is likely.Betting bank as never looked so good:hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Runar K Posted February 9, 2004 Share Posted February 9, 2004 Re: Danny System Danny - Did you read Racing Post article yesterday (7/2) on reduction in odds on low correct scores for very short priced games, by the big bookmakers this week? The are going to quote 11/2 on many 1-0, 2-0 scores for short priced games such as 1-5 etc, breaking away from their normal odds tables. I noticed Boro/Notts County had special odds in Hills, which were generally poorer than the normal odds. The bookmakers said they have been taking hits on these bets. They quoted that their odds are out with the betting exchanges on these correct scores. This suggests your system does work, but they are cracking down on it. This is the thing that worries me about sharing good information. It's great that people are posting good info, but if it is successful, and a sufficient number of people follow the strategy, the bookies might take this step and the value could disappear. I think the same thing happened to JackG's correct score system, which was excellent, but led to bookies slashing the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest qlpol Posted February 10, 2004 Share Posted February 10, 2004 Re: laughing all the way to the bank guys, if one of you would be so kind to send me an e-mail with the sheet, tried it myself but i guess i'm no wonder in maths and excell :\ [email protected] Danny, looks like a good system and it surely is a good read, keep it going mate!!! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted February 10, 2004 Share Posted February 10, 2004 Correct scores Second Sight and Runar: No I didn't read the article. I think it is mere coincedence that the slashing of the odds tie in with this thread. It is disappointing, but it depends on how many bookmakers actually go ahead with it. There is plenty of competition out there and I can't see everybody reducing correct score odds by considerable amounts. At least I hope not anyway! I'll be interested to monitor this over the coming weeks. Raylin, I'm pleased for you, well done, glad someone is using the method better than I am! Arsenal v Southampton Weds night????? Danny UP THE BORO! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Boof Bonk Boosh Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 Arse v Soith BACK ON TRACK....:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dub Cee Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 5 SCORE STRATEGY Well done danny Good spot although i never got on it in time :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest raylin47 Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 celtic game What about celtic game tonight 1-0 8.5 stanley bet 2-0 8.0 coral 3-0 8.5 coral 3-1 12.0 betdirect 2-1 13.0 skybet gives a bet of 1.71 instead of 1.3 If nerves take a part in your betting then use betfair in running total goals scored use 4 goals or more bet to cover losses during the course of the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ceeby Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 Interesting System guys I've not got much experience with using Betfair or in-game betting - what sort of options exist for covering this sort of bet if things start to go wrong during the game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest raylin47 Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 betfair in running Many games during the week which are televised have a number of betting opportunities to cover losses at Betfair .These are "under over 2.5 goals" , " number of goals scored", "next goal scored" and in running odds for the game.I utilized this last night in the celtic game when thing started gong horrible wrong after 20 minutes Ie when the score was 2-1 for Celtic I layed "no goals" scored at 6.0 10 units.If the score had stayed at 2-1 I would have broke even with my 2-1 bet at 65 units When Celtic scored again I realized this was going to be a high scoring game I layed the "no goals" scored at 4.00 20 units covering my 3-1 bet which I would have realize 60 units Because the score ended at 4-1 my loss was approx 60 units and profit 25 units giving an overall loss of 35 units The Chelsea game however I waited until Chelsea scored and because the game was so close at that time I layed Chelsea at 1.22 60 units This gave me a profit 65 units profit on the 2-0 result and and loss of 13.20 unit loss on the lay overall winnings of 60-13.2=51.8 units less commission It may seem a strange way of betting but I have won over 600 units in last 2 months using this strategy Each game you have to use your gut feel on which market to use to minimize your losses although sometimes I don't intervene at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ceeby Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 Data If I wanted to look at previous results and crunch some figures - the proportion of wins that fall within the 5-score bracket (etc) - what would be a good source of the raw data? Cheers :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted February 15, 2004 Share Posted February 15, 2004 Re: betfair in running Danny, I would consider taking Rangers & Celtic out of the equation for a while. I don't really think either team has a lot to play for in the league now that Celtic have it virtually sewn up. It's not at all like last season when they were neck and neck right to the wire and both teams could be relied upon to keep their foot on the pedal. Expect Celtic to rest players over the coming weeks so they're fresh for another UEFA cup run and as for Rangers I think they must have admitted to themselves that Celtic have won it (and they're not the team they were last season). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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