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** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

Accidental Draw System


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This 'system' came about firstly from my own impression that I was getting a large number of my picks (to win) ending in draws. Analysing the data I could get my hands on produced the following: 65 matches Wins 28/65 43.1% Draws 23/65 35.4% Losses 14/65 21.5% By refining my selection criteria for that data set, the strike rates become: Wins 28/57 49.1% Draws 22/57 38.6% Losses 7/57 12.3% The original thread in Punter's Tools / General Betting Help can be found below. To lay or not to lay Osesame proposed that I should back the draw and cover the win for the team I select so here goes. I'll start with a bank of 100pts, backing the draw for each selection at a single unit and covering my selected team winning with a break-even stake. Fingers crossed this doesn't make me look like a total tool

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1st result Thanks for the good luck PompeyPunt, it looks to have worked. Starting Bank 100pts Groningen vs Heerenveen 1pt on the draw at 3.20 (wills) 0.74pts on Heerenveen at 2.35 (wills) 1.74 pts staked Groningen 0 - 0 Heerenveen :D 3.20 pts returned New bank 101.46pts Nos. bets 1 Won/Lost 1/0

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Saturday Picks Current bank: 101.46pts Zwolle v Volendam 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 0.91pt on win at 2.10 (b365) Charleroi v Westerlo 1pt on draw at 3.25 (b365) 0.77pt on win at 2.30(b365) Mattersburg v Pasching 1pt on draw at 3.10 (b365) 0.67pt on win at 2.50 (b365) C.Palace v Norwich 1pt on draw at 3.30 (b365) 0.62pt on win at 2.62 (wills) Barnsley v Port Vale 1pt on draw at 3.20 (b365) 0.50pt on win at 3.00 (b365) Wycombe v QPR 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 1.11pt on win at 1.90 (wills) Leyton O v Lincoln 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 0.62pt on win at 2.62 (wills) Margate v Hereford 1pt on draw at 3.20 (b365) 1pt on win at 2.00 (b365) Total Staked: 14.20pts New Bank: 87.26pts Draws in these matches backed at 1pt stakes. Wins (for the team in bold) covered to a break-even stake. I'll add the stakes and odds later.

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edited to add stakes, odds and bookies. Fingers crossed

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Re: Saturday Picks Current bank: 101.46pts Zwolle v Volendam 3-0 :) 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 0.91pt on win at 2.10 (b365) Charleroi v Westerlo 3-1 :( 1pt on draw at 3.25 (b365) 0.77pt on win at 2.30(b365) Mattersburg v Pasching 0-0 :D 1pt on draw at 3.10 (b365) 0.67pt on win at 2.50 (b365) C.Palace v Norwich 1-0 :( 1pt on draw at 3.30 (b365) 0.62pt on win at 2.62 (wills) Barnsley v Port Vale 0-0 :D 1pt on draw at 3.20 (b365) 0.50pt on win at 3.00 (b365) Wycombe v QPR 2-2 :D 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 1.11pt on win at 1.90 (wills) Leyton O v Lincoln 2-0 :) 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 0.62pt on win at 2.62 (wills) Margate v Hereford 3-1 ;) 1pt on draw at 3.20 (b365) 1pt on win at 2.00 (b365) Total Staked: 14.20pts New Bank: 87.26pts Total Returned: 15.23pts New Bank:102.49pts Starting Bank: 100pts Total Staked: 15.94pts Profit: 2.49pts Total bets: 9 :) Wins 3/9 33.33% :D Draws 4/9 44.44% :( Losses 2/9 22.22%

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Sunday's effort Current Bank:102.49pts Istanbulspor v Maltayaspor 1pt on draw at 3.25 (BSQ) 0.80pt on win at 2.25 (wills) FC Karnten v Austria Vienna 1pt on draw at 3.50 (BSQ) 1.37pt on win at 1.73 (b365) Xamax v Thun 1 pt on draw at 3.25 (wills) 0.74pt on win at 2.35 (b365) Young Boys v Servette 1pt on draw at 3.40 (wills) 1.20pt on win at 1.83 (b365) Total staked: 8.11pts New Bank: 94.38pts

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Re: Sunday's effort Looked on course for a nice profit today until Vienna let me down - thought it was the 'safest' of the lot too >: Istanbulspor v Maltayaspor 0-0 :D 1pt on draw at 3.25 (BSQ) 0.80pt on win at 2.25 (wills) FC Karnten v Austria Vienna 2-0 :( 1pt on draw at 3.50 (BSQ) 1.37pt on win at 1.73 (b365) Xamax v Thun 1-1 :D 1 pt on draw at 3.25 (wills) 0.74pt on win at 2.35 (b365) Young Boys v Servette 4-2 :) 1pt on draw at 3.40 (wills) 1.20pt on win at 1.83 (b365) Total staked: 8.11pts Current Bank: 94.38pts Total Returned: 8.70pts New Bank: 103.08pts Total Staked: 24.05pts Profit: 3.08pts Total bets: 13 :) Wins 4/13 30.77% :D Draws 6/13 46.15% :( Losses 3/13 23.08%

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Re: One for Monday Moreirense v Belenenses 0-0 :D 1pt on draw at 3.40 (UKbetting) 1.25pt on win at 1.80 (wills) Total staked: 2.25pts Current Bank: 100.83pts Total Returned: 3.40pts New Bank: 104.23pts Total Staked: 26.30pts Profit: 4.23pts Total bets: 14 :) Wins 4/14 28.57% :D Draws 7/14 50.00% :( Losses 3/14 21.43%

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Stake deduction Hi MetallicIan, Thanks for the interest in the picks. What happened to your system in the long run? This one seems to be doing OK (even taking into account the 65 matches I used to 'derive' the system) but it is still very early days. I hope I've been doing my sums correctly. As an example, my pick for tonight is the Antwerp v Excelsior game. My total stake for that game is 2.10pts (1pt on the draw and the 'win-cover' of 1.10pts) and I've deducted that 2.10pts from my bank as that money is gone. Whatever return I get from the game (3.40 pts for the draw, 2.1pts for Exc. win or 0pts if Antwerp win) I'll add back to my bank. I think that keeps the amounts correct as my total stakes are always deducted regardless of the outcome. If anyone can confirm that my figures and/or the above is the right way to be doing this I'd appreciate it. The last thing I want is to think my system is profitable only for it to be down to my poor maths ! One other thing, I've just looked into the difference using Betfair odds will make to this system. Using tonight's game, the max profit I can make using the b365 odds I've listed is 1.30pts. using Betfair (3.85 draw and 1.98 win) means even after comission a max profit of 1.63pts. I think I'll make Betfair my first choice now.

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Guest MetallicIan

Re: Wednesday's Pick Hi EH101, I once looked into a similar system to yours and have been following your thread with interest... Just an observation regarding your returns, correct me if I'm wrong but are you remembering to deduct your win stake from your profits when it a draw result and vice versa? :unsure

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Guest MetallicIan

Re: Accidental Draw System Hi EH,         I just realised I was looking at your total returns as profit, so you are 100% correct here. My system was more of a 1X where I calculated my winnings equally between the 1 and the X regardless which result it was - I can send you my spreadsheet if you're interested. I currently have the "100 bets" thread going at the moment where I am only using the wins. However, using my picks in a 1X system, it usually produces a strike rate of around 94% (70% wins, 24% draws) so only needing combined 1X odds of over 1.07 to be in profit long term. In the 100 bets thread I only expect the opposition to WIN 7 times out of the 100 at most. I agree with you that Betfair is definately the place to go first for your draw odds and if you know your home odds already you can stick your neck out a bit asking for higher draw odds, although I couldn't do this because I had to know both the odds beforehand in order to calculate my stakes equally.         You seem to have an exceptional way of picking the draws here so keep it going, Ian.

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Phew! Thanks for the reply Ian. I'm glad I was doing the deductions / calculations right since I'm trying to find a way of tweaking my selection proces to concentrate on the draws so I need my workings to be correct. I'll have a look at how my picks so far would work out on a proportionally staked 1x basis. My current run on draws is most likely just a lucky streak so long term the 1x might be the way to go. I calculate my win-cover stake from a modified 'not to lose' spreadsheet and I've still got the original - thanks for the offer though, much appreciated. I'm a total Betfair newbie (hence number of posts in Betting Help) and so hadn't thought of trying for better odds on the draw. Thanks once again, any idea that can wring a bit more profit from the system is most welcome. Good luck with your 100 bets thread, let's hope we can get the long term, consistent returns we're after.

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A Loser Royal Antwerp v Excelsior Mouscron 3-1 :( 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 1.10pt on win at 1.91 (b365) 2.10pts staked Current Bank: 102.13pts Total Returned: 0pts New Bank: 102.13pts Total Staked: 28.40pts Profit: 2.13pts Total bets: 15 :) Wins 4/15 26.67% :D Draws 7/15 46.67% :( Losses 4/15 26.67%

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Correction to Profit Just noticed I calculated the return from my 20/03/04 selections incorrectly. It should have been 15.38pts instead of 15.23pts. Not a great deal of difference but I would like to keep the running totals here consistent with my spreadsheet so will adjust the profit and current bank appropriately. Current Bank: 102.13pts Adjustment to 20/03/04 return: +0.15pts New Bank: 102.28pts Total Staked: 28.40pts Profit: 2.28pts Yield: 8.03% Total bets: 15 Wins 4/15 26.67% Draws 7/15 46.67% Losses 4/15 26.67%

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Not a loser Scarborough v Halifax 1-0 :) 1pt on draw at 3.40 (PremierBet) 1.10 on win at 1.91 (b365) Staked: 2.10pts New Bank: 100.18pts Total returned: 2.10pts Current Bank: 102.28pts Total Staked: 30.50pts Profit: 2.28pts Yield: 7.48% Total bets: 16 :) Wins 5/16 31.25% :D Draws 7/16 43.75% :( Losses 4/16 25.00%

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Saturday's Selections Current Bank: 102.28pts Walsall v Millwall 1pt on draw at 3.25 (b365) 0.69pt on win at 2.45 (Canbet) Watford v Wigan 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 0.74pt on win at 2.35 (Canbet) Sheffield Wednesday v Brighton 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 0.63pt on win at 2.60 (Canbet) Forest Green v Barnet 1pt on draw at 3.30 (wills) 0.67pt on win at 2.50 (lads) Guingamp v Lille 1pt on draw at 3.20 (lads) 0.53pt on win at 2.88 (Canbet) Vitesse Arnhem v RKC Walwijk 1pt on draw at 3.25 (BSQ) 0.50pt on win at 3.00 (Canbet) Malatyaspor v Trabzonspor 1pt on draw at 3.40 (lads) 0.83pt on win at 2.20 (BSQ) Staked: 11.59pts New bank: 90.69pts All aways today - I've got a bad feeling about this :thinker

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90 minute goals Current Bank: 102.28pts Walsall v Millwall 1-1 :D 1pt on draw at 3.25 (b365) 0.69pt on win at 2.45 (Canbet) Watford v Wigan 1-1 :D 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 0.74pt on win at 2.35 (Canbet) Sheffield Wednesday v Brighton 2-1 :( 1pt on draw at 3.40 (b365) 0.63pt on win at 2.60 (Canbet) Forest Green v Barnet 1-1 :D 1pt on draw at 3.30 (wills) 0.67pt on win at 2.50 (lads) Guingamp v Lille 2-1 :( 1pt on draw at 3.20 (lads) 0.53pt on win at 2.88 (Canbet) Vitesse Arnhem v RKC Walwijk 3-3 :D 1pt on draw at 3.25 (BSQ) 0.50pt on win at 3.00 (Canbet) Malatyaspor v Trabzonspor 2-3 :) 1pt on draw at 3.40 (lads) 0.83pt on win at 2.20 (BSQ) Staked: 11.59pts New bank: 90.69pts Returned: 15.03pts Current Bank: 105.72pts Total Staked: 42.09pts Profit: 5.72pts Yield: 13.59% Total bets: 23 :) Wins 6/23 26.09% :D Draws 11/23 47.82% :( Losses 6/23 26.09% Could have been a much better day. Last minute / injury time goals in the Trabzonspor and Brighton games turned 2 draws into a loss and a win. 6 draws from 7 would have been too good to be true - still, I'm sure things like that will even out over time.

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3 for Sunday Current Bank: 105.72 Amadora v Sporting Braga 1 pt on draw at 3.50 (Eurobet) 1 pt on win at 2.00 (Canbet) Racing Santander v Valencia 1pt on draw at 3.25 (b365) 1pt on win at 2.00 (b365) Volendam v Utrecht 1pt on draw at 3.30 (Eurobet) 0.74pt on win at 2.35 (Canbet) Staked: 5.74pts New Bank: 99.98pts

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Might as well not have bothered Current Bank: 105.72 Amadora v Sporting Braga 0-1 :) 1 pt on draw at 3.50 (Eurobet) 1 pt on win at 2.00 (Canbet) Racing Santander v Valencia 0-3 :) 1pt on draw at 3.25 (b365) 1pt on win at 2.00 (b365) Volendam v Utrecht 1-2 :) 1pt on draw at 3.30 (Eurobet) 0.74pt on win at 2.35 (Canbet) Staked: 5.74pts Returned: 5.74pts New Bank: 105.72pts Total Staked: 47.83pts Profit: 5.72pts Yield: 11.96% Total bets: 26 :) Wins 9/26 34.62% :D Draws 11/26 42.31% :( Losses 6/26 23.07% Braga's 89th minute winner cost me another draw. Whatever happened to teams 'settling for a draw'. Oh well, at least the win stats are looking a bit healthier and the yield didn't take too much of a hit.

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Turkish Wednesday Current Bank: 105.72 Adanaspor v G. Birligi 2-2 :D 1 pt on draw at 3.57 (Betfair - comm. adj.) 0.29 pt on win at 4.42 (Betfair - comm. adj.) Staked: 1.29pts New Bank: 104.43pts Returned: 3.57pts New Bank: 108.00pts Total Staked: 49.12pts Profit: 8.00pts Yield: 16.29% Total bets: 27 :) Wins 9/27 33.33% :D Draws 12/27 44.45% :( Losses 6/27 22.22%

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Alternative Staking Summaries Just looked at what the standings would be if I'd used different staking methods on the selections in this thread. Draws only Just backing the draw in each match to a single 1pt stake. Nos. Bets: 27 Total Staked: 27pts Total Returned: 39.57pts Profit: 12.57pts Yield: 46.56% S/R: 12/27 = 44.44% Not to Lose Using a total stake per game of 2.00pts, wagered proportionally on both the win and the draw to give an equal return for either result. Nos. Bets: 27 Total Staked: 54pts Total Returned: 57.52pts Profit: 3.52pts Yield: 6.52% S/R: 21/27 = 77.77% I intend to re-visit with these summaries every couple of weeks or so and see how they compare with the 'main system'. My aim is to get enough of a trial done with what remains of this season so that I can have some confidence to use it properly next year.

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Saturday again already Current Bank: 108.00pts Notts County v Blackpool 1pt on draw at 3.40 (Totesport) 0.56pt on win at 2.80 (Premierbet) Wycombe v Port Vale 1pt on draw at 3.40 (Totesport) 0.64pt on win at 2.56 (Betfair com. adj.) Leyton O v Huddersfield 1pt on draw at 3.33 (Betfair com. adj.) 0.77pt on win at 2.30 (wills) Accrington Stanley v Chester 1pt on draw at 3.66 (Betfair com. adj.) 0.72pt on win at 2.38 (B365) Halifax v Hereford 1pt on draw at 3.61 (Betfair com. adj.) 1.25pt on win at 1.80 (wills) Margate v Farnborough 1pt on draw at 3.30 (Canbet) 0.91pt on win at 2.10 (wills) Montpellier v Lens 1pt on draw at 3.25 (Lads) 0.60pt on win at 2.67 (Betfair com. adj.) Staked: 12.45pts New Bank: 95.55pts The aways did OK for me last weekend so hopefully they'll do the same again today.

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It's a new dawn, it's a new day ..... Hoping to recover from a bad day yesterday. Here goes. I'll update the totals after today's exploits. Current Bank: 95.55pts Konyaspor v Rizespor 1pt on draw at 3.20 (B365) 0.35pt on win at 3.85 (Eurobet) Mallorca v Real Sociedad 1pt on draw at 3.25 (B365) 0.64pt on win at 2.54 (Betfair com. adj.) Guingamp v Auxerre 1pt on draw at 3.20 (B365) 0.63pt on win at 2.60 (wills) St Gallen v Wil 1pt on draw at 3.35 (wills) 0.38pt on win at 3.61 (Betfair com.adj.) Thun v FC Zurich 1pt on draw at 3.28 (Betfair com. adj.) 0.67pt on win at 2.50 (B365) Xamax v Aarau 1pt on draw at 3.38 (Betfair com. adj.) 0.57pt on win at 2.75 (Eurobet) Grasshoppers v Young Boys 1pt on draw at 3.30 (Eurobet) 0.64pt on win at 2.54 (Betfair com. adj.) NAC Breda v Feyenoord 1pt on draw at 3.30 (wills) 0.91pt on win at 2.10 (wills). Staked: 12.79pts New Bank: 82.76pts :sad

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Surveying the wreckage The good run had to end sometime. What a disastrous weekend. :( Notts County v Blackpool 4-1:( 1pt on draw at 3.40 (Totesport) 0.56pt on win at 2.80 (Premierbet) Wycombe v Port Vale 2-1 :( 1pt on draw at 3.40 (Totesport) 0.64pt on win at 2.56 (Betfair com. adj.) Leyton O v Huddersfield 1-1 :D 1pt on draw at 3.33 (Betfair com. adj.) 0.77pt on win at 2.30 (wills) Accrington Stanley v Chester 0-2 :) 1pt on draw at 3.66 (Betfair com. adj.) 0.72pt on win at 2.38 (B365) Halifax v Hereford 1-2 :) 1pt on draw at 3.61 (Betfair com. adj.) 1.25pt on win at 1.80 (wills) Margate v Farnborough 3-0 :) 1pt on draw at 3.30 (Canbet) 0.91pt on win at 2.10 (wills) Montpellier v Lens 1-0 :( 1pt on draw at 3.25 (Lads) 0.60pt on win at 2.67 (Betfair com. adj.) Konyaspor v Rizespor 2-1 :( 1pt on draw at 3.20 (B365) 0.35pt on win at 3.85 (Eurobet) Mallorca v Real Sociedad 1-1 :D 1pt on draw at 3.25 (B365) 0.64pt on win at 2.54 (Betfair com. adj.) Guingamp v Auxerre 2-2 :D 1pt on draw at 3.20 (B365) 0.63pt on win at 2.60 (wills) St Gallen v Wil 4-0 :( :( 1pt on draw at 3.35 (wills) 0.38pt on win at 3.61 (Betfair com.adj.) Thun v FC Zurich 2-1 :( 1pt on draw at 3.28 (Betfair com. adj.) 0.67pt on win at 2.50 (B365) Xamax v Aarau 4-1 :( :( 1pt on draw at 3.38 (Betfair com. adj.) 0.57pt on win at 2.75 (Eurobet) Grasshoppers v Young Boys 4-2 :( :( 1pt on draw at 3.30 (Eurobet) 0.64pt on win at 2.54 (Betfair com. adj.) NAC Breda v Feyenoord 0-3 :) 1pt on draw at 3.30 (wills) 0.91pt on win at 2.10 (wills). Current Bank: 82.76pts Returned: 17.57pts New Bank: 100.33pts :( Total Staked: 74.36pts Profit: 0.33pts Yield: 0.44% Total bets: 42 :) Wins 13/42 30.85% :D Draws 15/42 35.72% :( Losses 14/42 33.33%

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