AFL Rd. 18.

[TazaD]

Come on you lot! Can't be still sobbing into your collective Real McCoy and generic cola's after the great Bomber explosion last week? ;) :lol I've taken two bets so far...broke the golden rule, took a Essendon/Geelong/St. Kilda treble @ 1.75 for 2 units. I see Bombers blowing out a bit again now with maybe Lucas out, but I thuoght 1.24, 1.22 and 1.16 were silly! I've got "Geelong -anything" written on my little sheet in front of me...have to think they cover the -30.5 easily. Won the last meeting (this year) by 30, in wet, windy conditions at the MCG...had twenty five more I50's!! :eek Won by 70 and 160 last year...the 26 goal pumping was their last meeting at the Dome. I just can't stress how lucky Richmond have been in the last 2...beaten 2 bottom teams and lost to 5 goals to Carlton in their last 5. Tempted to see if I can find some 60+ prop. Essendon are flying. Only th extremely unfortunate Richmond loss in their last 6...won't start slowing the game up like Kangaroos last week. [3 minutes into the last quarter someone put the ball above their head!! :wall ] Melbourne flat out suck. The win against a poor travelling, extremely flat Brisbane glosses them up a bit. But they were painful last week and could have easily lost every quarter like they did the first against a more attacking team. Forget last week, Saints are still a solid team at home in the dome. Port won their GF v. the Crows and now are already resting up for the summer! No P. Burgoine, Chad Cores, Tredrea, Salopek, Chaplin... Port have the worst defense in their last 4 games (1.72)...it's 1.82 on the road as it is... Saints scored 119 in last 2 games in Melbourne, shold kick another decent score here, and hold Port to not much. The other one I'm on is Sydney/Doggies under 180 (2.14...with TAB <150, 150-160...etc.) I personally think 2.80 is a whopping price for the Swans...but they are struggling for personel here. They are missing 7.5 from the last meeting (2008 SCG) with Goodes, O'Loughlan, Playfair and Buchanan out...there were only 91 I50's and 46 shots in that game anyway. The meeting before that was @ Canberra (as this game is), was 157...and Swans have 9.5 missing from that team! (Schnider kicke 3) Take out the game v. a god-awful Port (worst D remember! :D) and the Dogs haven't topped 25 shots in their last 4 (@ 23) and have the 4th worst attack in that time @ 2.03.) Swans allow just 20 shots per game @ home this season (in NSW), but I do think they'll struggle to score themselves. Friday Night...numbers suggest Collingwood can keep it close, if not pull the upset...but tough to look passed the round 6 pumping...that's the ony thing scaring me off tho. :$ Like the look of Adelaide/Carlton either under 24.5 (1.97) Blues will find it far harder to score here than they have recently against some poor teams (Swans away, Dogs in dome), but clearly Crows are struggling to score too...haven't topped 25 shots in their last 6 @ 20.6. Will be all out efense from the Crows I suspect...won the first meeting by 30, but just 5 more shots...3 of the previous 4 meetings ended under 20 point margins, with just a Crows smacking as 1.07 favs in the middle! Low scoring, Crows will find a way to keep it tight, 'cause I don't think they can win by more than 4 goals! Brisbane/Roos is a bit of a toss up, imo. Odds probably right. Kangas can't score away from Vic...Lions in a decent slump, and Roos won last meeting here (Gold Coast) as big 'dogs. May look for a Freo/WC over given the recent history of low scoring games...you'd thnk Freo would win, but @ 1.50?! :cow er, no!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Didn't see it in writing anywhere?? but I'm assuming you took Essendon SU (like a man) Taza?:D Guess it's time to admit Collingwood have their problems. Thing about Essendon, as you say, they play attacking and the 24.5 might not be at all difficult and would imagine Hird can't be too far off. Gotta also remember Melb got a stale Bulldogs to get within 31. Still kicking myself :wall on Carlton LW over the matter of stale dogs. What about 1.63 Freo? I give that an er, no also. I guess if Freo do run second it does open things up for one of the other runners. Porplysia fitness? There's gotta be a bet in this game somewhere. Both got away with stale opp LW. Am thinking Blues SU @ 2.40 but that 24.5 thing does look interesting. Doesn't look to be too many 100-goal kickers in that crows forward line. Can't go wrong taking the 2.95 North under 39.5 (I'm sure there's plenty of knuckleheads reading who are senseless about "Can't go wrong"). The sore Brisbane playing some inexperience.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. No Ash...it's a wonder you couldn't see my over-sized bloomers from your lounge room. Took 2 teams on the +points...both won easily. Took one team ML, got done by 3 points...bah. Goodwin sore too...yeah, kinda wish I hadda known about this thing earlier. Seems to be pretty consistantly over 1.95, not bad for a 50 point spread!...on a game where the books think it will be close... Definately some funny IN's for Brisbane. An injection to fire up the oldies, or giving up on the year, as 8th spot looks like a bad joke anyway?? How's the weather over there across ye vaste ocean?

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. It was a real car wreck last weekend as far as punting on the AFL goes and a pretty rear occurrence. Usually only get one or two of those a year. Let's hope some normality returns this week but there are plenty of challenges ahead. The Hawks return to the scene of the crime after just falling short against the Cats. The task is no easier this week with the Jekyll & Hyde Magpies fronting up to knock them off. A wet and wintry night is on the cards, so the tall forwards are practically taken out of the equation, and that will hurt the Hawks more. I expect a let down from the Hawks after last weeks game and being that they are reasonably comfortable in the top 4 and with Collingwood playing for a finals berth, they have more to gain from a win and should sneak home in a tough battle. It's very windy in Melbourne, and it's starting to turn nasty, so the skills wont be great and a damp track wont help those trying to take a mark. The Bombers are playing great footy at the moment and should sweep aside Melbourne. With Lucas out, the task is made more difficult, but their runners are all playing at the top of their game and the Demons will have no match for them. With Miller out for the Demons, they have no key forwards and will pobably be forced to use Green at full forward. Carlton are on a high after last weeks heroics and venture to Adelaide full of confidence. One thing is for certain is that Adelaide's defence wont let in 18 goals like the Bulldogs did. The Crows have never lost 4 in a row at AAMI Stadium in a single season. The game means so much to both in the lead up to the finals. I think the Crows can hold Fevola, Fisher and Betts to a low enough score to claim victory, but the Blues good interstate record this season is a concern. The Kangaroos head to the Gold Coast for the final time to host Brisbane. They've snuck under the radar in the past few weeks, getting the job done with little fanfare. The Lions should be locked in the top four, but have dropped too many games in winning positions late in games. Given an even midfield battle, I don't see logical match ups for Merrett and Roe because the Kangaroos are using a small, mobile forward set up. The Roos have fair match ups on Brown and Bradshaw with Brennan being the unpredictable wildcard that could win them or lose them the game. No point dropping off the Kangas yet and they should consolidate fifth spot. It'll be interesting to see if Geelong can handle Hawthorn's rolling zone for a second week in a row seeing as Wallace has adopted the concept as well. The Cats were tested last week, but held their nerve and were too polished in the end. The Tigers have been on a roll thanks to their midfield runners and good finishing by their forwards. I can see the Tigers matching the Cats for maybe two and a half quarters before being blown apart. It's time for a reality check for Wallace's men. The Bulldogs are in the same predicament as Hawthorn at present in that they can't play a full four quarters. Not that it matters that much at this stage with a top three spot virtually secured. Locking that up has been made easier with Goodes and O'Loughlin missing for the Swans. Playing at their home away from home is an advantage for the Swans, but they don't have the firepower to match the Bulldogs and could be on the verge of losing fourth spot. Port Adelaide are in list management mode and wont get close to the Saints. Williams will introduce some new talent to see if they are up to it whilst losing key players from all areas of the ground. The Saints had a setback last week going onto auto-pilot too early against the Eagles and paid the price at the final siren. With Koschitzske back, scoring goals shouldn't be a problem, but with Hudghton out, they might leak a few as well. In a high scoring game, the Saints will win by plenty. The Derby wraps up the round and the Dockers go in deserved favourites, but with recent wins against Port and Melbourne, it's hard to get too enthusiastic about. The Eagles jumped out of the grave last week to upset the Saints and will have got some confidence from it. In a real flip of the coin game, I'll tip Pavlich to get his Dockers home, with West Coast still in the race for the first draft pick. Players missing from best 22's. 3 - Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs 4 - Geelong 5 - Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond, Sydney, Fremantle 6 - Brisbane, St.Kilda, West Coast 7 - Essendon, Melbourne, Adelaide, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide. Predictor. Collingwood 77 v Hawthorn 85 Essendon 94 v Melbourne 76 Adelaide 82 v Carlton 88 Geelong 111 v Richmond 84 North Melbourne 81 v Brisbane 93 W.Bulldogs 96 v Sydney 84 St.Kilda 119 v Port Adelaide 77 Fremantle 97 v West Coast 70 Best Bets. Collingwood WIN North Melbourne WIN St.Kilda MARGIN (40+) Surely, this week has got to be better than last. Fingers crossed.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Well...I talked Ashtee around at least! :D Taken that ...oh, and if anyone's interested...

27.

MrChristo

Chris

11.48

21

534

156.16

Herald Sun weighted tipping. (out of 49,222 apparently) Good news...no. 1. from Tassie...bad news, I would have made a hell of a lot of cash just betting on winners this year. :eyes Really bad news...I would have been 3rd overall if I had have left Richmond paying about 8.50 @ Freo in Rd. 4, which I swapped at the last minute. Still haunting me... :puke Oh, and bc...you're hanging in there by the skin of your teeth, my good man! 8.5 and a couple of shanks...should have kicked 12! :D

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Couple of nice results about over the last 24hrs :clap. Knocked me off the perch :lol.

Tipster League - AFL

Tipster	Record	Yield/ROI	Strike Rate	Avg. Back	Avg. Lay
1. MrChristo	+84.60pts	+15.10%	57.14% (32/56)	2.00	0.00
2. Ashtee	+80.42pts	+20.02%	53.57% (30/56)	3.04	1.97

Felt Richmond would put up a fight (which they did, because they're a better side behind) and could agree with >59.5 in the black but 4.00 about Geelong to do that to anybody you'd think is pretty generous.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Your up there too, Oscar :clap. Barry, Leo

O'Loughlin, Michael

Goodes, Adam

Buchanan, Amon

Malceski, Nick

Brabazon, Ryan

Veszpremi, Patrick

Crouch first game for a long while ... surely Sydney can't win. Overload training or not, the dogs should go in keen to do well. Certainly getting to half time hasn't been an issue, so HT/FT 1.80 @ Norm Short, Sportingbet is the go IMO, although I did take some of the bet SU @ 1.47 BetCRIS.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. A couple of just crazy last 2 minutes in both games last night made a few of us very happy. North were no chance. Didn't look like scoring, and if "I'm the most over-rated hack in AFL history" Travis Johnstone does anything but what he did, it was over... ...then Kangas kick 3 in 2 minutes, and I'm sure most people were as confused as me! :D Then, Geelong, quite happily 45 points up, chipping around, kicking backwards...wasting time...Richmond absolutely butcher at least 3 chances to score, and out of nowhere Geelong kick 3 in about 90 seconds to topple over the 10 goal mark. Wonderful stuff. lol. Surprised at the high total @ Canberra, but already on the under... ...like WC/Freo over @ 185.5, but will wait for an extra point or 2 maybe. (187 was my limit) EDIT: But for perch purposes I guess I can still post that under ;) :lol

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. I (without joking) went to switch over to Discovery Channel a couple of times mid last term - there was no way North had the sole in them to win that. Simpson was huge out - smashed at CB's and ... ( I trust no one will be chiming in to say he's overrated and soft :unsure). Interestingly brown and Bradshaw kicked ten of the eleven ... and Johnstone kicked none.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18.

EDIT: But for perch purposes I guess I can still post that under ;) :lol

Yeah, it kinda ***** the idea of a good tipping site when you can't put up certain bets. At the same time, I guess they had to do something given the mass of crap that was getting thrown up.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Yeah, I've had numerous 'arguments' about certain things on there. Not being able to post 2 bets on a single game for one...a team and total is pretty independant... ...not to mention more than one bet that still doesn't add up to 10 points! (For margin bets etc.) Anyway... On that over 185.5 now. Is there any chance at all the Dogs could start spraying a few shots at goal one game v. Sydney???

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Of coarse never any doubt Sydney would kick four goals in first minute, just to make punting fun :eek. Big strike rate of Last quarter "high scoring quarter' in western derby's @ 3.60 Sportsbet, Lasseters, Gamebookers Best value with Lynch and something on the other three.

3-Aug-08		Glendinning Medal		Lynch, Quinten	41		Centrebet
3-Aug-08		Glendinning Medal		Hansen, Ashley	34		Sportingbet
3-Aug-08		Glendinning Medal		Schammer, Byron	41		Sportingbet
3-Aug-08		Glendinning Medal		Tarrant, Chris	51		Sportingbet

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Well, you certainly did have value on your side! :@ But, I guess for every square jawed yokel like Jakovich who just stat-watches, there's a Healy who talked about "impact" for the last 10 minutes of the game. Still, bloody unlucky that. :sad