Kempton (eve) 24/7/08

[fintron]

6.10 Maiden to open the card. John Gosden's debutant Floodlit is the forecast fav and with in form Ryan Moore on board, should be popular. With a short price expected I'm looking for an each-way bet though. 7 of the 14 that go to post have previous racecourse experience but only Prophetise (4/17 at Salisbury on Gd/frm ground) has placed before. The only two of those seven that has previous experience of the all-weather are H J L Dunlop's filly Key to Love and A P Jarvis' Athania. The former finished 6th of 10 here on her debut but was bumped at the start and outpaced. In the end she was beaten by just over six lengths. That race was on the 9th July, so hard to weight up the form as none of the five infront have raced since. The latter ran in that same raced and finished a neck back from Key of Love in 8th. She started slowly too and was outpaced in the rear as well. Athania runs from box 8 again tonight, whilst Key to Love is in stall 4 this time, was in 3 LTO. So if they were hampered by the draw that day, they would struggled again tonight. Manhattan Sunrise ran on the fibresand at Southwell but was well beaten and never dangerous. Plus, tackling polytrack for the first time here. Thewaytosanjose ran in the same Folkestone race as Prophetise but was well back in the field, although she was hampered on the rail and may have fared better with a clear run. Tiger Goddess was 5th of 9 on her Doncaster debut on Gd, Gd/Frm ground. The form of the race is working out well with 1st (twice), 2nd and 4th all winning subsequently and even the 3rd has ran well in defeat. The other plus for Tony Culhane's mount is that he has the pick of the draw in stall 14 and he is my each-way selection. As its not possible to assess the strength of the form of plenty of the other maidens of the other runners, Tiger Goddess may be the sensible bet. Sport Life tissue 12/1

[fintron]

Re: Kempton (eve) 24/7/08 6.40 Nursery handicap is the next race on the card. Daddy's Gift has a good draw and is a previous polytrack winner at Lingfield. He drops in grade here after a crack at a class 2 Newmarket handicap LTO off 77. He was btn 5.75 l and never dangerous, but now competes in a class 4 handicap here and can't be discounted coming from one of the most successful AW yards. Gassal ran well over CD LTO and was only headed inside the final furlong. He was btn by 1/2 length and running of the same mark here he has a chance (although up in grade tonight). Aegean Warning was 1.75 lengths back from Gassal in the same race and also runs off the same mark of 69, although he isn't as well drawn tonight. Misty Glade has experience of the polytrack (btn 1.25 lengths here by Lady Cottingham LTO in a maiden) but its hard to assess whether his rating his fair. Going back to a previous run at Southwell, he was only a neck behind Carmanjoe, and that rival has failed to win off 65 and 67 since, so perhaps the handicapped could have been a bit more lenient with Misty Glade (rated 69). So the two I'm backing are Daddy's Gift and Gassal, although don't know stakes until prices are available. Sport Life tissues 7/1 and 3/1 respectively.