billy the punter Posted July 23, 2008 Share Posted July 23, 2008 Ok, had this in a tourny a while back online (the figures will be 95% accurate). Was a $300 freezout. Money to 20th. 26 left. Average stack was about 25k. I had around 32k and was in 5th position. Blinds were 400/800. I was dealt AsKs on the button, folded round I make it 3000 to go. SB (average stak) and BB (chip leader) both call. Flop:4s8s2c SB bets out 8000 or thereabouts, BB re-raises to 25k. Although it's horrible choice to face I didn't have to thing long before I made my choice. What do you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted July 23, 2008 Share Posted July 23, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma It depends. Do you want to win it or is you aim to cash ? Whilst the call is clearly +EV and you should call it in a heartbeat in a cash game, if you want to win, you make the call and most likely become chip leader if you hit. If you want to cash, then you let it go. You're most likely facing a coin toss, chances ares you're facing trip 8s. Hitting a pair isn't going to save you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted July 23, 2008 Share Posted July 23, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Although it's horrible choice to face I didn't have to thing long before I made my choice.How much better do you want the flop to be? Even against AA you're not in terrible shape here. To me thats as easy a choice as calling an all in pre flop when you're holding AA. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 23, 2008 Author Share Posted July 23, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Well I passed. I'm behind and slight fav at best. Why would I want to jepordise my current position - I have a massive chance of winning this tourn. Being a consistent tourn winner isn't about pushing edges IMO. I'm surprised you said auto-call Valiant, as on the other thread (a similar situation) to said: That to me says fold. If I had them covered with a stack to spare I'd be prepared to gamble, but I can't play on from here. Don't you think they are similar? - AJ - I understand your point re if it were a cash game and many will agree but I'm not so sure. I similar hand cropped up in the big cash game I used to play. I had put 200 in pre with JT suited and hit a straight flush draw. It was going to cost me my remaining 2800 on the flop. I passed. Why do I want a three grand coin flip? I may as well go and play red/black and save the time. I will always fold this and trying and win by playing - I think I have more chance that way. We're all different though. Thanks for the opinions. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma That to me says fold. If I had them covered with a stack to spare I'd be prepared to gamble, but I can't play on from here. Don't you think they are similar? - AJ - I understand your point re if it were a cash game and many will agree but I'm not so sure. I similar hand cropped up in the big cash game I used to play. I had put 200 in pre with JT suited and hit a straight flush draw. It was going to cost me my remaining 2800 on the flop. I passed. Why do I want a three grand coin flip? I may as well go and play red/black and save the time. I will always fold this and trying and win by playing - I think I have more chance that way. We're all different though. Thanks for the opinions. :ok I guess the question is, is the hand routine for you. Would I take a 3k coin flip with a 52% chance of winning as a once off? I'd think about it, but I may fold. If I was offered 1,000 of them I'd snap it up. Over the long term, value will out. So what happened here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Don't you think they are similar? Only as far as they are both flush draws. In VoJ's situation the tournament is in its middle stages, and winning his hand won't win him the tournament. It may put him in a good position, but you know how people leapfrog in MTT's. If Joe had a dominating chip lead with 70 left the tournament still has enough play in that anything could happen. In your situation there are a number of factors. You're near the bubble. If you are 5th with 32k and average is 25k, there is probably not a lot of difference between chip stacks. The big pot here, at this stage of your tournament, would almost certainly guarantee a final table finish. You're paying 1200 an orbit and if you go card dead now you could well end up being lucky to limp into the money. At some stage during this MTT, like it or not you're probably going to be playing for your tournament life. Ask yourself whether when that time comes, would you like to have the nut flush draw on the flop? I will always fold this and trying and win by playing Okay, thats fair enough...but why did you raise with it in the first place then? Just to steal the blinds? What would have happened f someone had re-raised then? Would you have folded? Its an excellent question and as you said, a sick dilema. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 24, 2008 Author Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Answer to both really: Personally I'm LESS likely to gamble at the stage my tourn was at. When tourns are paid out to final two tables I make the final table 88% of the times I cash. So I really fancy my chances here. I never want to CALL for all my chips with a marginal hand - if the hand was played different, then of course I could've easily found myself raising all-in. But having to call is very different. Why did I raise pre? Well raising with AK doesn't mean I have to get tied to it after the flop as you know. There are many ways a hand like that could pan out. If I was reraised preflop I may re-shove, my initial raise was button remember, the blinds may put me on a steal and be reraising with plenty hands I dominate. That is different to fancy a raise and a re-raise on a rag flop. As a side note I never try to win a tournament until I'm down to final 4/5. We could talk for hours about pushing edges early in an MTT etc. It's a matter of ability, the better you are the less edges you should push. The weaker player should take every possible coin flip he can get, the better player should avoid them at all costs. I passed. I would've missed. I cashed high. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Thanks. :ok and congrats. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma We could talk for hours about pushing edges early in an MTT etc. It's a matter of ability, the better you are the less edges you should push. The weaker player should take every possible coin flip he can get, the better player should avoid them at all costs. I have to say, I'm convinced by the arguments of people like Chris Ferguson, Greg Raymer and Bill Chen about this. They'd agree that better players should be a little less willing to take "coin-flips" early in an MTT, but have tried to reason about how great an effect skill difference should make, and have come to the conclusion that it's pretty small. I think they all believe that almost nobody ever has such a skill advantage that they should voluntarily pass up a 55-45 shot early in an MTT (e.g., if they somehow knew that an opponent had gone all-in with AK, they would call with QQ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma I have to say, I'm convinced by the arguments of people like Chris Ferguson, Greg Raymer and Bill Chen about this. They'd agree that better players should be a little less willing to take "coin-flips" early in an MTT, but have tried to reason about how great an effect skill difference should make, and have come to the conclusion that it's pretty small. I think they all believe that almost nobody ever has such a skill advantage that they should voluntarily pass up a 55-45 shot early in an MTT (e.g., if they somehow knew that an opponent had gone all-in with AK, they would call with QQ). I agree Slap. if you know for sure the odds are in your favour you have to take it as in the longterm the odds neve lie. Obviously in certain situations like a satelite where it's a flat structure it's more about survival and not risking your tournament life. I know there are plenty of players who've played a very long time and never even think about odds etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma I know there are plenty of players who've played a very long time and never even think about odds etc. I have the opposite problem. I understand the odds but I can't play the poker! :lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Quiet Man Posted July 24, 2008 Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Well I passed. I'm behind and slight fav at best. Why would I want to jepordise my current position - I have a massive chance of winning this tourn. Being a consistent tourn winner isn't about pushing edges IMO. I'm surprised you said auto-call Valiant, as on the other thread (a similar situation) to said: That to me says fold. If I had them covered with a stack to spare I'd be prepared to gamble, but I can't play on from here. Don't you think they are similar? - AJ - I understand your point re if it were a cash game and many will agree but I'm not so sure. I similar hand cropped up in the big cash game I used to play. I had put 200 in pre with JT suited and hit a straight flush draw. It was going to cost me my remaining 2800 on the flop. I passed. Why do I want a three grand coin flip? I may as well go and play red/black and save the time. I will always fold this and trying and win by playing - I think I have more chance that way. We're all different though. Thanks for the opinions. :ok I'd have folded too........I'd probably went out next hand by going all-in with 77 :lol Billy, you look for the comments, then appear to come back quite aggressive when they don't fit in with the way you played the hand! (or is it just me that sees that?) :unsure I'm sure you didn't mean to come accross that way!:ok Well done on cashing. TQM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Think it's just you. I didn't mean it to come accross that way. This isn't a thread asking for advice, I know the correct decision for ME. It was just supposed to generate debate - thought that was the purpose of the forum? :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAM Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Think it's just you. I didn't mean it to come accross that way. This isn't a thread asking for advice, I know the correct decision for ME. It was just supposed to generate debate - thought that was the purpose of the forum? :ok I think a forum is more about discussion than debate. Poker has so many layers than each point of view needs to be discussed openly rather than opinions formed and debated. Also, as in other sections of this forum credentials are usually a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma I think a forum is more about discussion than debate. Poker has so many layers than each point of view needs to be discussed openly rather than opinions formed and debated. Also, as in other sections of this forum credentials are usually a good thing. I have no idea what this post is suggesting. Debate, discussion - I prefer to make money than split hairs. Credentials? You'll have to explain that for me. I'll be honest so far I've found the poker section of PL to be quite cliquey and less friendly than other parts of the site. I may stick to the racing section were opinions are respected and appreciated. Thing is with poker players - even losing ones believe they're experts. Thanks to those who responded positvely to the post. Be lucky. :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma for what's it's worth, I didn't see any agression in any post. It was a good debate / discussion (i don't see the difference either), the when do you take a chance vs when do you hope for a better chance thing is worth discussing. Nice thread, keep posting :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Hedonist Posted July 26, 2008 Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma I'll be honest so far I've found the poker section of PL to be quite cliquey and less friendly than other parts of the site. I may stick to the racing section were opinions are respected and appreciated. Sorry to hear this Billy. Stick around mate, you'll find we're not nearly as cliquey as at first we seem. :ok We're certainly a lot less bitchy than places like 2+2, BTP or Poket 5's. As someone who spent a fair bit of time on the racing forum last year (I'm not there so often now, as I don't think I have much to add, TBH) I think the main difference between the two is that on the Racing Forum the bulk of discussion involves people sharing opinions before the outcome is known, followed by a quick "congrats" after the fact. (Nothing wrong with that, its a great forum with some very clued up posters :notworthy) Whereas here on the Poker Strategy Forum the poster generally knows the outcome prior to posting the hand history. Therefore the discussions here are always based on personal theories. For me its great that one question can provide three or four conflicting answers. Sometimes its been the answers that I initially disagreed with, that have given me the most to think about in the long run. Hope you decide to stick around. Its always good to have a new voice. :clap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted July 26, 2008 Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Stick around Bill you bloody poof;). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted July 26, 2008 Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma This isn't a thread asking for advice, I know the correct decision for ME. It was just supposed to generate debate - thought that was the purpose of the forum? :ok So you don't need the advice, don't like the 'cliques' and have rarely at all offered anything in this section before. Welcome :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted July 26, 2008 Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma So you don't need the advice, don't like the 'cliques' and have rarely at all offered anything in this section before. Welcome :ok You know, I think this was a pretty unhelpful post and the it's the kind of thing that puts people off. People post for reasons other than to get advice in PS, sometimes they do it if they think it's an interesting point that may lead to a discussion that will be useful to others. I'm not having a go, but it didn't look good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted July 26, 2008 Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Sorry but BtP knew exactly what he was doing why he was doing it and good luck to him. But to suggest it as in any way posted to inprove the play of the rest of us is ridicolus. As Nade says its a one of look at me post. If thats what you want ok personally I'd prefer discussion with the usual culprits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morlspin Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Id have called every day of the week as well for what its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Going back on topic here - wrong fold... you should have called that. As AJ said - are you playing to win or to cash?? Clearly you were playing to cash - and there's nothing wrong with that... (no advice intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma You know, I think this was a pretty unhelpful post and the it's the kind of thing that puts people off. People post for reasons other than to get advice in PS, sometimes they do it if they think it's an interesting point that may lead to a discussion that will be useful to others. I'm not having a go, but it didn't look good to me. It's no good IMO for someone to come in saying they don't need the advice giving it the big I AM the whole way when they have no proven history on here. I hope BtP is an amazing player who we can all learn from but we have no 'proof' so his tone and attitude is all wrong. Instead, if BtP is so good he should contribute more IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whycantistayawayfromdogs Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma I similar hand cropped up in the big cash game I used to play. I had put 200 in pre with JT suited and hit a straight flush draw. It was going to cost me my remaining 2800 on the flop. I passed. Why do I want a three grand coin flip? I may as well go and play red/black and save the time. I will always fold this and trying and win by playing - I think I have more chance that way. We're all different though. Thanks for the opinions. :ok Gutshot or open ended? Being bankrolled is rather important to your ability to play profitable poker ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whycantistayawayfromdogs Posted July 27, 2008 Share Posted July 27, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Thing is with poker players - even losing ones believe they're experts. Apparently so :loon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whycantistayawayfromdogs Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma As a side note I never try to win a tournament until I'm down to final 4/5. We could talk for hours about pushing edges early in an MTT etc. It's a matter of ability, the better you are the less edges you should push. The weaker player should take every possible coin flip he can get, the better player should avoid them at all costs. in which case i would advise you to take the early coinflops :unsure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whycantistayawayfromdogs Posted July 28, 2008 Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma I passed. I would've missed. I cashed high. :zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 28, 2008 Author Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma It's no good IMO for someone to come in saying they don't need the advice giving it the big I AM the whole way when they have no proven history on here. I hope BtP is an amazing player who we can all learn from but we have no 'proof' so his tone and attitude is all wrong. Instead, if BtP is so good he should contribute more IMO. Talk to me when your older son. Contribute more? I don't understand - I've only just started looking at the section properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted July 28, 2008 Author Share Posted July 28, 2008 Re: Sick Dilemma Why are so many poker players bitter and angry all the time? Is it because they are consistent losers? Who knows. Thanks for the comments guys - Steve, AJ, Tom :ok I will stick around, although this post has proved what I thought anout the majortity on this section. Nade - I was winning tournaments when you were still on the tit. whycant - Totally waste of space replies, making an assessment of how good a player is without ever seeing them play one hand - cunning, bet you're a right face where you play. :lol glc - For the final time, IT WAS A POST TO GENERATE DEBATE. I purposely used this hand as I knew it would bring up many different opinions. I never said I planned to improve others - I actually said I know the right move FOR ME. FOR ME. I really think that point went over your head. nade/whycant should try and backing up your half-baked opinions with poker theory instead of the slagging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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