Yarmouth Mon 21/7/08

[fintron]

4.15 There may still be more to come from Naughty Thoughts who carries second top weight but still looks quite well handicapped. Rated 64 here, she won a fillies handicap (as she contests here) in May off 61 and then followed up on her next turf outing to win an apprentices handicap off 62. The handicapper put her up 3 lbs for her last run at Windsor. She was dropped down into class 5 company and after being held up in the rear, was ridden to press the leaders 2f but just couldn't quicken when asked. However, she stayed on to take 3rd and she drops in class further here (C6 now). Although she no longer benefits from Ross Atkinson's 7 lb claimer (Richard Kingscote takes over) the form of her 3rd to Cosmea and Susie May looks a solid piece of form at this level. The former won NTO off 71 and the latter, although hasn't been seen since, had won off 64 at Brighton shortly before that race.

[billy the punter]

Re: Yarmouth Mon 21/7/08 2.15 A typical auction maiden that won't take a lot of winning. The current favourite is a newcomber from Jonh Gosden's yard, Lion Gate, and he wouldn't have to be a superstar to make a winning debut. I don't back many FTO 3yo's and given that Gosden is only 1-26 with 3yo's here I'm looking elsewhere. Done of Seventh Cavalry's maiden have worked out well and he is starting to look exposed. Drop in trip will suit, racing at one of the yard's favourite courses and has the visor on today. Looks as though this could be his best run - but has a bit too much to find for me to back him. With them going 25 bar four (with the outsiders looking outclassed) this leaves Last Three Minutes and Rio Guru. Last Three Minutes was 4th on debut last season and given that Ed Dunlop's usually come on for their first run he has to be seen as a decent effort. The form has worked out too, the 1-2-3-5 have all won and are all 80-90 horses. 279 days lay-off is an obvious concern but looks to have plenty of potential. Rio Guru wasn't beaten far in the Cheshire Oaks (8th of 9) but that isn't the form that interests me. It was a decent fillies maiden she contested FTO when 3rd. The winner Musical Bar was beaten a head in a Listed race NTO, the 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th have all won. She ran below form LTO but that was after a ten week break and on heavy ground. I'm prepared to forgive that one run. Both Rio Guru and Last Three Minutes are big prices on the place market - both 2.5 or thereabouts. I'm taking a chance and going win however. Rio Guru 50% of stake 5.4 betfair Last Three Minutes 50% of stake 4.5 betfair