Great Leighs 15/7/08

[fintron]

Decent card at the Essex track tonight. 7.40 Came Back (to place) has done nothing wrong and is prolfic on the all weather surfaces - 5 wins from his last 6 is testament to that. Those wins have come in handicaps and claimers up to a highest mark of 90, however, Kevin Ryan's charge contests a class 3 conditions race here. He's racing in better company here, hence the price of 10/1 that is available, and Godolphin's Greek Renaissance - a Group winner - is in the race along with some other strong looking rivals. Greek Renaissance did win at Wolv as a juvenile so should be okay on the surface. Ceremonial Jade is proven on the AW too, however, 3rd and 4th in the betting, Aeroplane and Starlit Sands have not won on the AW and although Viking Spirit has managed to place, he's never quite managed to get his head infront. Perhaps Came Back can thus sneak one of the three place spots up for grabs. 8.10 Bomber Command was a steamer when scoring on the polytrack at Kempton two runs and he's available at 14/1 (Bet 365) here. He's now rated 86, 4 lbs higher than his last winning AW mark, but his price takes into account his 19/28 at Ascot LTO, which bears no signifance upon his AW form here. There could still be more to come from him on the AW and there is no doubt he acts on the polytrack. 8.40 Bury Treasure - another 14/1 shot but again the bookies have priced him that high because of a poor show at Winsdor LTO, which can be ignored for the purposes of this AW race. He's 3 lbs higher than from his last AW appearance but the form of his 2nd to Rapidity (3 lengths clear of 3rd) has worked out well with EJ O'Neill's horse winning NTO when upped in class.

[billy the punter]

Re: Great Leighs 15/7/08 6.10 Great Leighs Billion Dollar Kid is losing his form very quickly. He changed hands for 100k in October and I hate to say it but it looks as though the new connections have done their money. They may be looking to recoup some of that in this claimer so I wouldn't be surprised if he is spot on for this. He has a breathing problem, which is shame as he was looking decent. His form at two wae useful, after finishing 2nd to River Proud FTO he went on to show figures of 211. Although one of the few runners to avoid traffic problems, he ran well enough FTO this year when 4th to Slugger O'Toole (a said on the day that the winner was possbily the luckiest handicap winner I've ever seen and his formlines since 398 prove so). Billion Dollar Kid had the decent Dubai Dynamo, Throne of Power and Ancien Regime behind him that day. He went off as short as 11/2 when tailed off (after leading) in Yadree's hot handicap at Newmarket, showing for the first time his problems. He didn't run too bad in the Britannis NTO to finish 9th on the far side after leading. 18th overall. Dropped to a claimer LTO but was a 7l 2nd. The winner however is a mid-80s horse, so although he is regressing he may not be regressing enough to lose this race. However the signs of a breathing problem or something similar was apparent as he flattened out late on. Those last three starts were at a mile though and he drops to 6f for this. He has plenty of toe and he could get away with this trip, and hopefully the problems won't kick in at this shorter trip. Hopefully he won't have to come off the bridle. He is shot for a horse with such things to content with but he runs within a stone of his best he'll win. If he was 'right' he'd be 1/5 shot all day long. IF he fails then it looks like Bazguy will have a penalty kick. Worth taking a chance on in my book. I've mopped up everything I could at 1.99 and over in the past 10 mins and averaged out at 2.01. I'm probably braver/stupid than most. It could look like a fantastic bet in 22 mins. Or I could have egg on my face. I love racing. Billiondollar Kid 100% of stake