A M trial & Multiple betting

[Guest whoneedsrio]

First of all an explanation of what the objectives of this thread are and how it came to be. You may have seen in the at the races forum Fenders time-line greyhound threads and the quite heated debate in them. You may also have seen Boytractors 4x4x4x4 multiple posts, if not heres a brief explanation of what this was about. The idea was to produce a winning four horse accumulator by perming four selections from each of four races which gives 256 bets. Only one of these bets can win, but if the odds are good enough a profit can be made, however four winners at 3/1 would give a 255/1 fourtimer which would only recover the outlay on the bet. These posts began in early February and ceased late March with the method showing a loss of just over £600. Each bet was 256 x 10p = £25.60 staked and of the 27 bets only two were winners returning £87.95 in total. There were a couple of bets voided due to meetings being called off because of the weather and in total there were 112 races used. From this 112 the winner had been trapped on 66 occasions from the four selections per race or put another way 59% of the time, note this is winners to races not winners to runners and this is what interests me. The source of these selections is the Adrian Massey web site, a free site which has ratings for each race. Looking at the races BT used to get his selections, from jump racing mainly handicap chases with some handicap hurdles were used and for the all weather the races were mainly all aged handicaps. From both codes the number of runners were mostly between 8 to 12 with a few going a little higher. Once the race had been chosen the top four from the ratings were used in the bets. The races are laid out in rating order so its easy to see what the top four are. There is also an archive of results from 1999 to the present, flat and jumps seperated on a month to month basis in the same format of race in rating order with the finishing positions and odds added. Because the new flat season had just got started I decided to do some research into past performance. I checked the results of May 2003 on the flat, all aged handicaps (3yo+) of 8 to 12 runners to see how many times the winner had appeared in the top four rated. From 42 races the winner was in the top four 24 times (57%). I then looked at the results for May for the other years and working back from 02 to 99 the returns were, 22 from 34 (64%) 24 from 39 (61%) 22 from 40 (55%) and 44 from 72 (61%) the average for the five seasons was 60%. Again working backwards the average SP's were, 3.36/1, 5.03/1, 4.4/1, 6.39/1 and 3.95/1. So what do we have? There is much more work to do but it seems we may have a method which reduces fields of 8 to 12 runner handicaps to a more manageable four, trapping the winner around 60% of the time. With further, say more usual form study these four can be reduced down to provide single bets or two or three per race for multiple betting, it is easier to study a four runner race than one with 8 to 12. The plan then is to live test through May this year to see if this level of around 60% can be maintained whilst checking the other returns in the past results to see how they performed. I now have the returns from June for each of the past five seasons. June 03 had 58 winners from the top four rated from 92 races (63%) again working back from 02 to 99 the returns were, 72 from 99 (73%) 47 from 84 (56%) 49 from 74 (66%) and 61 from 98 (62%) the average for the five seasons was 64%. Again from 03 back the average SP's were, 4.88/1, 5.3/1, 5.28/1, 4.23/1 and 4.37/1. It is interesting to note that despite the sharp rise in qualifing races as the seasons hit full swing the strike rate and average SP's compare very well to Mays returns, indeed both were slightly up. I am now working on July and will post my findings when I have all five seasons. The trial. From the 1st of May I will post the qualifers for each day, work permiting, the race headings on the Massey ratings pages will determine if the race qualifys. The heading must state that it is a 3yo+ handicap and there are 8 to 12 runners. At this stage I am going to ignore races which due to non runners may be reduced to less than 8 or become within the said band from a higher figure. Everything will be included to start with, for example selling and amateur handicaps and races on the aw tracks, these were included in the research results from above, the aim first is to see if the 60% winners to races can be maintained. At the same time I will be looking, time permiting at each race and attempting to further reduce the four qualifers to see if single bets can be made or can they be adapted to some form of multiple betting but not on the same scale as BT's 4x4x4x4 bet. In effect there will be two trials running at the same time. I am also putting together my thoughts on multiple betting and will post them in this thread later. If any of the boys on both sides of the greyhound fence, and you know who you are, or anybody else for that matter would care to climb on board feel free, fire away. Rio.

[Guest boytractor]

Multiples Rio, what a very interesting and well researched post. I'm around for a few days before having to dash off again but will add my comments etc. whenever I can. My original 4x4x4x4 was as you correctly state based on top 4 rated of Adrian Massey ratings. The original method I used some 2 years ago - Saturdays only due to the number of races and was strictly based on the following criteria: 1. Maximum of 12 runners 2. ALL selections must have exposed form. 3. The forecast favourite must be one of the top 4 rated 4. Ignore if forecast favourite odds on. 5. No apprentice / amatuer / ladies / hunter chase races. This criteria usually gave an average of 6 qualifying races per day. From these I used the races with the best forecast prices. Following on from the above, I then looked at another possibility which did well for a short period - the top 4 race card number (top weighted) in handicaps with a maximum of 14 runners. To qualify, I would exclude the favourite if 1 of the top 4 and use 5th in the weights as the 4th selection. Before making a final decision on the race, I would check the favourites record for the particular course / race. If this was 25% or less, then it would be a bet - otherwise the race would be ignored. My reasoning was that there was a 75% chance that the favourite would get beaten! I would then bet on the qualifying race(s) either using level stakes or dutching if I had the time using the odds available to determine the stakes. This method pulled up some very nice winners at prices upto 33/1. Having spotted the above, it dented my confidence a bit in blindly following AM ratings method unless the top four rated were primarily 1, 2, 3, or 4 racecard numbers. Following on I now tend to stick to Handicaps if possible for the 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 bet. Also the prices are better. Food for thought for the moment I hope. I personally don't use AM facility to build my own search criteria. This is because I prefer not to back fit and also, as all meetings do not show ratings on the site, I suspect they will be included in the results of the search facility. I do have all published ratings (evening before) for approximately 3 years although I never refer to them. The one thing I am confident in is that Adrian's ratings are a very reliable source to narrow down the field as you have also noticed. You will also find that if you exceed the 12 runner rule, upto 16 runners, the winners is often one of the top 6 rated! Andrew

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 1st No 3yo+ handicaps of 8 to 12 runners tomorrow. Still working on the other stuff. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 2nd Two races today, with the top four in rating order, 1.30 Newmarket Zilch, Chookie Heiton, Seel of Approval, Bond Boy £.25 Hamilton George Stubbs, Sahem, Nakwa, Golden Boot The ground appears to be the key to the Newmarket race, Chookie Heiton needs good or faster ground & the firmer the better for Seel of Approval. The other two would need a bit of cut, especially Zilch who would prefer soft going. As the ground will be drying all the time I would favour the fast going pair. Seel of Approval may need the run having not won on sesonal debuts in previous years. This would make Chookie Heiton the one for me if narrowing down to one selection. In the Hamilton race, the going is good, good to firm in places. This would rule out Golden Boot for me as this one appears to need soft/heavy ground. Sahem has not won a handicap & looks a bit high in the weights for this. Nakwa looks to be a little outclassed & of the four George Stubbs looks the most likey. This is not a race I would play in though. Lets see what happens. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 3rd Both races yesterday were won by horses from outside the top four in the ratings. 0/2 There are no qualifing races today. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 4th At the moment the site contains the ratings for 4th Of April! Just done a 12 hour night shift so I'll update later if the correct day appears. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: May 4th Having risen from the pit I find that the site now has the correct day & the only race is the 6.20 at Musselburgh. The four in order are, Astromancer, Gargoyle Girl, Mr Fortywinks & Romil Star. No time to go into the race so I'll just see what happens. Rio.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Interesting Just seen this Rio and looks interesting. In case you missed it the result of that last one(which was actually the 6.40 Muss) 1st Gargoyle Girl 5/1 And for interest Romil Star came 2nd for a forecast of £30.17.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Thurs Checked the qualifiers and results for today. 2 races, 1 winner@3/1 and 1 loser. In the 4.50 Folk you could have had the winner @3/1, the forecast for £24.45 and even the tricast for £223.42!!! Is it just the flat you're looking at and have you looked at other flat handicaps? Looking at todays results for the other flat handicaps gives: 5 more races: 1 loser 4 winners @ 7/2Fav,5/1,10/1,13/2 and a forecast for £31.46 Jumps gives: 5 races: 3 losers 2 winners @ 9/2 ,8/1 and 2 forecasts for £38.32 and £25.32 If you set your limits as you did due to time restrictions Id be more than happy to follow the others and share the results with you.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: Thurs WFTE, thanks for your interest, I tried several times yesterday to log on but couldn't, I think it was due to the shocking weather playing havoc with the phone lines. I've also been out most of today so thanks for checking todays qualifiers, I don't think there were any races yesterday so as it stands there have been five races with two winners at 5/1 & 3/1 from the top four rated in each race. I'm still working on July from the past returns & on my thoughts on multiple betting. I've now got some time off work so I hope to get a bit more done on this over the next few days. With the 8 to 12 runners, I'm just roughly following in boytactors steps & the flat because this time of the year is when I do the bulk of my betting. If you wish to monitor other races, say handicaps of more than 12 runners or the jumps then please do so & we can compare findings. You may also be correct that forecast betting may be an option to consider, the reason for the trial is to see if firstly the strike rate can be maintained & if so whats the best way to use these winners. Early days as yet but lets see what happens. All the best, Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 7th Two races today, Lingfield 2.15 One mile aw track Brave Dane, Lifted Way, Paragon of Virtue, Supreme Salutation Both Brave Dane & Paragon Of Virtue have won on the track but both look best over 10f. Lifted Way won well at Sandown LTO & may be improving but from two runs on the course has finished unplaced & may not handle the track. Supreme Salutation is a course winner over 7f & has won at a mile, a winner only 3 days ago at Warwick the 7lb penalty is countered by the stables apprentice's 7lb claim & I would favour this one. Lingfield 3.20 5f turf, soft Another Glimpse, Forever Phoenix, Madrasee, Byo Another Glimpse has done all his winning over 6 & 7f & may find this a bit sharp. Madrasee has won twice here but on the aw & looks to be somewhat of a Brighton 5f specialist having won four times there, three of them on firm ground. Forever Phoenix appears to be improving for a drop back in trip, yet to win on turf but has done most of her racing on the aw & ran a good third LTO over 5f at Thirsk on good to soft. All of Byo's winning has been done on fast ground but on soft LTO at Folkestone was a good second & can't be ruled out of this. I'll take Forever Phoenix & Byo in this. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: May 7th Lifted Way at 6/1 beats Brave Dane in the 2.15, The SF paid £34.74 & the Exacta £43.70 by the way. Forever Phoenix took the 3.20 at 9/2, the results so far then, 4 winners from 7 races (57%) Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 8th Only one race today, Thirsk 7.35 Two miles, good to firm Etching, Thewhirlingdervish, Toni Alcala, Riyadh Etching, all racing done on fast ground. Won over two miles last September at Nottingham. Good win on reappearance at Bath over just short of a mile & half. 2lb higher for win, improving sort, stable in form. Thewhirlingdervish is best on fast. 4lb higher than last winning mark, not won for best part of two years & usually finds one or two too good. Toni Alcala is consistant & stable in form. Won five runner 14f handicap LTO off 64, 4lb higher today. Yet to win over two miles, best runs in small fields. Riyadh won off as high as 88 in the past but recent form gives little encouragement & move to Mark Johnston does not appear to have woken him up. Held by Thewhirlingdervish on LTO form. Looks to be between Etching & Thewhirlingdervish, got half an eye on the going tho', we've had plenty of rain in Yorkshire this week & I'm a little suprised that they have the going as good to firm. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

July returns Finished my research into 8 to 12 runner, 3yo+ handicaps from the last five seasons for July from the Massey site past returns. 2003, 66 winners of 110 races (60%) average odds 5.65/1 2002, 63 from 121 (52%) 5.48/1 2001, 59 from 107 (55%) 4.59/1 2000, 69 from 107 (64%) 4.82/1 1999 79 from 102 (77%) 4.71/1 2002 is the lowest strike rate of May, June & July together & 1999 the highest, still pretty consistant overall tho'. August next. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 10th The race at Thirsk on Saturday evening was won by one from outside the top four rated. So now it stands at four winners from eight races. Interesting news from WFTE that Massey is cutting back on his free to all ratings. Tomorrow he has ratings for the meetings at Kempton & Redcar but not the aw Wolverhampton card or the Windsor evening meeting. I'll continue to monitor the situation & see what happens. There are no races which qualify tomorrow. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 13th/14th Didn't think there were any qualifiers this week up to now but I've just looked at the site & noticed I missed a race at Salisbury today the 4.20. The second rated won the race at 5/2 from the top rated at 9/2 taking it to five from nine. I did look last night but the eyes weren't working 8o nothing for Friday, I think ;) Rio.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: May 13th/14th

The second rated won the race at 5/2 from the top rated at 9/2 taking it to five from nine.

Does that mean you got the forecast up as well?? (£12.52)

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: May 13th/14th WFTE, Yes the second rated of the Massey four Desert Royalty won at 5/2 & the top rated of the four Tawny Way was second at 9/2, the exacta was £5.30 & the CSF £12.52. I'd just like to make a clear that I didn't get the forecast up or any bet what so ever. I didn't notice the race till after it was run & I'm still only trialing this till the end of May so I'm not backing any of them yet. There are no races that qualify Saturday. Cheers, Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 17th There are three all aged handicaps of 8 to 12 runners today, however the two at Musselburgh tonight have no ratings on the Massey site. Bath 3.40 1m 5f, good to firm Calamintha, Anyhow, Belle Rouge, Compton Eclaire Belle rouge is a non runner, there are several at Bath this afternoon which suggests that the going is even faster than good to firm. Calamintha has only won once on the flat, a 2yo seller at Yarmouth on soft ground. Two wins over hurdles again on soft & one on good ground, four runs on g/f with only a 3rd of eight suggests that todays going is too lively for this. Decent second LTO at Nottingham but again on soft & probable favorite due to Fallon on top. Anyhow goes on fast ground but yet to win beyond 12f, has won off todays mark of 61 but not since May 02. Consistant but tends to find trouble in running, only stables second runner on turf this season. Compton Eclaire is consistant as well, won a Redcar 14f handicap on g/f off 50 last year & is on a mark of 55 today. Done most running on aw but only managed a claiming win. Stable yet to have a winner this turf season. Fifth in the ratings is Classic Millennium who won this race last year of 53 & is 5lb higher today. Goes on the ground & the track, won a York apprentice handicap off 57 over 11f & won seven races under the useful Lisa Jones who claims 3lb, stable not exactly flying though. A tight race this, the whole field is covered by 3lbs in the Racing Post ratings & its the sort of race to leave alone from a betting angle I think. Cheers, Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: May 17th Anyhow won at 5/1, this takes it to 6 winners from 10 races. There are no qualifing races on the site for Tuesday, Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 19th One race today, Goodwood 3.15 5f, good Corridor Creeper, Little Edward, Texas Gold, Further Outlook Corridor Creeper ran a fine race off this mark of 90 at York last week when not best drawn & on slower ground than ideal. 5lb higher than best winning handicap mark but must be on the shortlist. Little Edward has won off todays mark of 97, likes to be up with the pace & with another couple of front runners in the race might set the race up for a fast finisher, on the shorlist though. Texas Gold off 87 today 8lb higher than best turf winning mark but has won off 85 on the aw. First run this year & stable not doing much, passed over. Further Outlook has won off 97 in the past & goes off 84 today, stable in form but this one may find trip too sharp on ground too lively, also passed over. Of the four Corridor Creeper would be the one for me if reducing to one selection, but I'll leave Little Edward on the shortlist too. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: May 19th Working nights last night, tried to log on this morning but my daughter had been on & don't know what she'd done but I kept getting shut down. Just re-installed everything & seem to be working again. Non of the four won yesterdays race & looking at the site there was one race this afternoon at Newcastle 3.25, this was won by the fourth in the ratings Red Sun at 100/30. This takes it to 8 winners from 12 races. Hopefully I'll have no more computer problems in the morning. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 21st Just in from the night shift. Five races today! Newmarket 3.15 Prairie Falcon, Sir Haydn, Ravenglass, Individual Talents. Haydock 3.40 Qualitaire Wings, Young Mr Grace, Flowerdrum, Uhoomagoo. Haydock 4.10 Lawood, Rotuma, Compton Dragon, Libre. Newmarket 4.20 Parnassian, Harrison Point, Tiber Tiger, Lygeton Lad. Haydock 5.15 Valient Romeo, Quicks the Word, Dunn Deal, Malahide Express. No time for any form study, bed is calling. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 22nd After the Newcastle race the other day the results so far should have said 7 from 12 races. Just one winner yesterday, Tiber Tiger at 8/1 from the five races so its 8 from 17 now. One race on the site today. Haydock 4.40 Nakwa, Vicars Destiny, Northern Nymph, Bramatino. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: May 22nd From the Haydock race Nakwa won at 7/2, so its 9 winners from 18 races. The flat meeting at Brighton today was not covered on the site, there are no races of the trial type on the site for Monday. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 25th One race today, Ripon 3.40 6f, good to firm Polar Kingdom, Armagnac, Romany Nights, Time n Time again Polar Kingdom as not won on turf for three years, both turf wins on slower going as well, well drawn though. Armagnac is not well drawn, looks to be returning to form but as a poor win to run record. Romany Nights likes to be up with the pace, resonable draw & should go well at a fair price. Time n Time Again is another not well drawn & looks better on the aw. Romany Nights it is then. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: May 25th Polar Kingdom a non-runner, winner from outside the four. 9 from 19 Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 26th One race today. Lingfield 5.20 8f, aw standard Climate, Zafarshan, Spindor, College Delinquent Not the greatest event this, however, Climate has not won for the best part of two years & has a poor win to run ratio, did run well LTO over this trip on good/firm at Kempton & just makes the shortlist. Zafarshan goes on this track & also ran well LTO, shortlist Spindor's best form is over 6/7f & with stable out of sorts is left out. College Delinquent is fairly consistant but has only managed one win from 25 starts & is also left out. Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

Re: May 26th Climate wins at 7/2, now 10 from 20. Four races tomorrow Ayr 3.30 Waltzing Wizard, Sea Storm, Friar Tuck, Yorkshire Blue Would take Sea Storm in this. Bath3.50 Annijaz, Glencoe Solas, Boavista, Ballinger Express Glencoe Solas & Ballinger Express here Bath 4.20 Delta Force, Treasure Trail, Henry Island, Sashay Delta Force & Henry Island Bath 4.50 Nantucket Sound, Nuzzle, Castaigne, Mr Whizz Don't fancy any of these Rio.

[Guest whoneedsrio]

May 28th The four races on Thursday were all won by one of the top four rated, yorkshire Blue 9/2 Boavista 11/2 Treasure Trail 6/1 Nantucket Sound 5/2 My attempts to further narrow the selections were less sucessful :rolleyes Total now 14 winners from 24 races. One race Friday, Brighton 2.40 Lady Pekan, Byo, Tender, Yorkie Rio.