Windsor 29/06/08

[billy the punter]

Three decent flat cards tomorrow as I will take a rare look in Ireland, so thought I'd try and get a head start. 2.35 If you didn't get to the wedding you shouldn't go to the funeral. So, although Willkandoo has done nothing wrong of late, I've decided to oppose him. I can't back him off a 14lb higher mark if I haven't played already on him. I have backed Charmels Lad on his past two starts though. I was pleased with myself before his handicap debut thinking I've unearthed a dark horse, however he was a little unlucky in running shaping as if further than the 6f trip would suit. I was disappointed with his run NTO at GL but will give him another chance here over a mile. I'd be happier over 7f but he showed enough last season to suggest a mile is within his capabilities - he is certainly no sprinter based on what I've seen this season. The stable are in much better form now also. I'm not Brian Meehan's biggest fan but I've toyed with backing Mr Hichens on more than once. He ran well on debut but disappointed on his next two maiden starts. He was given a mark of 70 and ran ok on his handicap debut. He was 5th to Vineyard here in a race that has worked out ok. He stepped up on that effort NTO when 2nd at Newmarket although he did hang his chance away. It wasn't a great race and although he did pull well clear of the 3rd I think a 5lb rise is harsh. The blinds could bring out the improvement needed however and I'll give him a chance here. Addikt is 4lb better off for finishing infront of Mr Hichens in the race that Vineyard won and has to enter calculations on that. Didn't stay 10f LTO but looks like a horse that should that doesn't turn good runs into wins enough. Needs things to drop right it would seem. Charmels Lad 40% of stake Mr Hichens 40% of stake Addikt 20% of stake Hoping for around 8/1 for all selections Plus combos 3.05 Heaven was so unlucky LTO and runs here off the same mark. Yes, everyone saw it and knows it, yes the price will reflect, BUT his previous form puts him in with a massive chance anyway as this looks a poor race, even by Class 5 standards. He ran well against his elders in May and in fact ALL of his career runs (bar his debut) suggests he is well handicapped off 67. Eg his 3rd to Good Gorsoon with Bookibasher Dude in 2nd (last August). Short price but should be shorter, on the book. I won't be going overboard as I don't like 'obvious' selections. Heaven 100% of stake 2.1 betfair 3.40 (Class 3) Porthole is so hard to weigh up, he did win with ease LTO, but he beat little. He probably showed a similar level of form to what he showed on his debut last season when 3rd in a decent Newmarket maiden. His mark of 88 doesn't scream leniency, seems about right. At the price I'm overlooking him. I was very sweet on Swinging Sixties LTO and was shocked he didn't play a hand in the finish at York. He looked like he'd come on for the run when making a winning debut at Newmarket and I thought his mark of 86 was a winnable one. The 2nd at Newmarket, ran well NTO off 82 and will surely be winning soon off that mark. the 5l 3rd was odds on NTO but failed to act at Brighton and the run should be ignored. The 9l 4th bolted up off 70 at Windsor and looks an 80 horse all day long. They were a distance clear of the remainder. So although not over lenient I thought given the expected improvement, he'd be able to win off a mark of 86 . I prepared to forgive the run as it was at York. He was quite keen in rear that day and Windsor should suit more and he'll know a little more this time too. The yard had a handicap winner here on Monday and they never seem to be out of form. Dropped a pound also. Meydan Dubai had a consistent 2yo campaign without winning. He started the season on a mark of 89 and was a pleasing never nearer 5th to Dantulm over a mile at Newmarket. Disappointed on firm going over the same C&D NTO when yard wasn't firing. Found 7f at Epsom too sharp NTO and was hampered, wasn't disgraced however. He did take the eye last time out however and I mentioned him in my Royal Ascot overview. He was 9th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (6th on the far side) beaten less than 6l. He again looked in need of further than the 7f and didn't get a totally clear passage. Although he had a welter weight not many 3yo run well in the big Royal Ascot handicaps so this run cannot be ignored. He has been dropped another 4lb for that run and runs off 84 now. He is upped in trip, but to 1m2f - so staying has to be taken on trust, although running style over 1m and stamina on the sire's side suggest it's a definite possibility he'll get this trip. Stable flying at the minute (although just 5% S/R here) and he must surely find a race soon. Will chance him here and wouldn't be put off by a defeat, think it could pay to follow him over his next few runs. Swinging Sixties 70% of stake Meydan Dubai 30% of stake 11.5 betfair 4.50 (Class 3) To follow

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Windsor 29/06/08 3.40 Porthole 9/4 var bog 15 pts. Third on debut last season in what was a good hq maiden, loads of winners from that race and fulfilled the promise showed from that lto when he won nicely at windsor a couple of weeks back and really extended towards the finish in the fashion of a smart horse. Makes his handicap bow today and is less exposed than many of these in the race today.