Doncaster 15/6/08

[fintron]

2.20 Swop is likely to be short so taking it on with Obezyana. A Bailey's gelding is turned out quickly after coming 2nd (btn 0.5 l) at Haydock three days ago. He was bidding for a double that day after also scoring over a mile at the same course on his penultimate run. The good/firm ground is fine, he's proven over the trip, racing at the same class as from putting in those two previous efforts and he's running off the same mark as from his last run (Fox again claims the 3 lb). 3.25 Difficult race to call but taking a punt on Orpenindeed. Marco Botti brought in the money for me yesterday with Re Barolo so hoping his good form can continue. His gelding is dropped in grade here and has been knocking on the door of late. He runs off the same mark as when 4th of 9 at Thirsk latest, but running in lesser company here he could gain his first win. He was well backed at Yarmouth on his last run on Gd/Frm and only just came up short (2nd, btn 0.5l).

[Aykay1]

Re: Doncaster 15/6/08 Horse: Swop @ Evens Stanjames Course: DONCASTER Time: 2.20 Your Notes: He went in the notebook last time after finishing 2nd at odds on. 1st, 3rd and 4th have won since so in the context of those wins, the form looks good. I wouldn’t have minded seeing him stepped up in trip as the dam won over 1m4f and he was staying on last time. Horse: Malcheek @ 33/1 sportingbet Course: DONCASTER Time: 3.25 This one wont necessarily win but 33/1 with sportingbet is insulting to its chances. He is as “short” as 20/1 elsewhere but I would be pricing him somewhere around the 12/1 – 14/1 mark. He historically competes well in class 3 or below on fast ground. His strike rate on Good/Firm or firmer is 29%. By comparison, his record on good ground or softer is 0%, class 3 or below his strike rate is 30%, Class 2 or above 0%. Combine everything and his strike rate is an impressive 38%. He is now creeping down to only 2lb’s above his last winning mark but has still been running respectably this season. Last time he ran well over C&D in a higher grade last time on the “wrong” side of the track and is better drawn today. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run into a place here. Horse: Red Icon @ 7/1 william hill Course: DONCASTER Time: 4.00 Your Notes: Had no clear run in a decent looking maiden on his reappearance this season, finishing a decent 6th. He wasn’t helped by his stall that day with the first 6 home drawn 16, 11, 13, 10, 14, 4 out of 16 runners. The form looks good with the 2nd 3rd and 5th winning since and the winner performing creditably in Listed class. Was well fancied next time but flopped on soft ground. Well worth another chance having been dropped 4lb’s for that.