Sandown Thurs 05/06

[bowles10]

6.45 5f sprint With so many hold up horses in the race, i wouldnt be too concerned about the draw even though a true run sprint at Sandown on soft ground normally favours high numbers. 2 that will take the race on are Glasshoughton & Fromsong. Neither will meet the trouble that the others will find trying to weave through & Glasshoughton drawn 10 of 13 should take the race on & try to lead from the front. It can turn the tables on Namir who beat it 1/2L LTO but now a 3lb pull in Glasshoughton's favour should be enough. Fromsong's trainer won this last year with Bertoliver but as a 10yo I cant see it beating these but from stall 8 wont have a problem taking up the running with Glasshoughton & just may stop a few getting through to the leader. Glasshoughton EW - cant see it out of 1st 3.

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 Really like the look of this race myself bowles. Think there are a few well handicapped sprinters in it. Although not an Upper Class handicap I may stake as if it were as this looks an above average Class 4. Plenty of reliable animals involved. Just working on the write-up now.

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 6.45 Sandown Decided to concentrate on the following runners here; Zowington, Dazed And Amazed, Dirriculous, River Thames, Crimson Fern. Dazed And Amazed will be winning again soon I'm sure but will exclude in this due to the soft ground. Zowington will appreciate the stiff finish here and acts on soft going. Penalised 6lb for his win at Lingfield LTO but has won off a 4lb higher mark in the past. Always had his problems but could win again if he is kept sweet. Well drawn and doesn't always come from a mile off the pace like he did LTO - wouldn't be surprised if more use is made of him in this. When Dirriculous was given a handicap mark in the 50s in January I was harping on about him a massive blot on the handicap (prior to my PL days - sorry). I've followed him ever since and he did prove to be a well handicapped horse. Four wins later and he is now rated 80. His placed turf effort and recent A/W win off 76 would suggest he can still be competitive and should act on this going. His only poor run to date however come over 5f, it is definitely not his trip, but on soft going at Sandown he may get away with it. Crimson Fern did me a favour or two early season and has bounced back to form on turf of late. 10lb higher than his last win but an unlucky 2nd LTO suggests coping with the rise is a distinct possibility. Great draw but ground an unknown. Raced only on quick surfaces. River Thames’ form line for his run LTO is complete fiction. It seem these days so many form lines and race analyses are written by Ray Charles or Hans Christen Anderson, perhaps they always were but we’re now in an age where we can see for ourselves the glaring errors that are made in this area. Anyway, River Thames was unlucky in running LTO when finishing 3rd to Stolt. He would've won with a clearer passage IMO and he went into my notebook giving the impression he could be coming into form. He runs here off the same mark and acts with give. All wins have come over 6f but this stiff 5f on the ground should be perfect for him. Granted he isn't easy to win with, has won just once since his 2yo day but he was ridden by Jamie Spencer for that win and it's encouraging he takes the mount here. If he gets the breaks he has to be there at the finish. Has drifted quite badly (1.5pts) over the past half hour though. River Thames 60% of stake 7.4 betfair Zowington 15% of stake 6.2 betfair Dirriculous 12.5% of stake 10 betfair Crimson Fern 12.5% of stake 10 betfair

[JackJarvis]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 Good writeup Billy, I may follow you in with River Thames, quite fancy it myself.

[Aykay1]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	855 Sandown
Selection	Hannicean
Strength	10/10
Date	05/06/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 3.75 (Back)
Reasoning	Would have gone very close last time but for getting blocked in his run. That was over 1m - he stayed on well and finished strongly to suggest this 1m2f will be welcome - it is the distance of his only win so far.

[Winner4Me]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 7.50 Carlitos Good form recently jockey a good'un. i think this horse could win this. Dont fancy much else in this race but i could be wrong. Worth a risk at 6-1 so im going for e/w as its 1-4 first 3. :hope

[Winner4Me]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06

6.45 Sandown Decided to concentrate on the following runners here; Zowington, Dazed And Amazed, Dirriculous, River Thames, Crimson Fern. Dazed And Amazed will be winning again soon I'm sure but will exclude in this due to the soft ground. Zowington will appreciate the stiff finish here and acts on soft going. Penalised 6lb for his win at Lingfield LTO but has won off a 4lb higher mark in the past. Always had his problems but could win again if he is kept sweet. Well drawn and doesn't always come from a mile off the pace like he did LTO - wouldn't be surprised if more use is made of him in this. When Dirriculous was given a handicap mark in the 50s in January I was harping on about him a massive blot on the handicap (prior to my PL days - sorry). I've followed him ever since and he did prove to be a well handicapped horse. Four wins later and he is now rated 80. His placed turf effort and recent A/W win off 76 would suggest he can still be competitive and should act on this going. His only poor run to date however come over 5f, it is definitely not his trip, but on soft going at Sandown he may get away with it. Crimson Fern did me a favour or two early season and has bounced back to form on turf of late. 10lb higher than his last win but an unlucky 2nd LTO suggests coping with the rise is a distinct possibility. Great draw but ground an unknown. Raced only on quick surfaces. River Thames’ form line for his run LTO is complete fiction. It seem these days so many form lines and race analyses are written by Ray Charles or Hans Christen Anderson, perhaps they always were but we’re now in an age where we can see for ourselves the glaring errors that are made in this area. Anyway, River Thames was unlucky in running LTO when finishing 3rd to Stolt. He would've won with a clearer passage IMO and he went into my notebook giving the impression he could be coming into form. He runs here off the same mark and acts with give. All wins have come over 6f but this stiff 5f on the ground should be perfect for him. Granted he isn't easy to win with, has won just once since his 2yo day but he was ridden by Jamie Spencer for that win and it's encouraging he takes the mount here. If he gets the breaks he has to be there at the finish. Has drifted quite badly (1.5pts) over the past half hour though. River Thames 60% of stake 7.4 betfair Zowington 15% of stake 6.2 betfair Dirriculous 12.5% of stake 10 betfair Crimson Fern 12.5% of stake 10 betfair

Id go with the second one myself.

[TheRat]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06

Id go with the second one myself.

Why?!!! :unsure

[Winner4Me]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06

Why?!!! :unsure

Just looks better to me mate. i will probaly be wrong as billy normally gets it right but we will see in a min.:ok

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 Bah, I picked the wrong one, but a small profit none the less. I wouldn't have played though if I couldn't back all four. Was sure I'd have the winner, just stake a bit on the greedy side. Zowington was beaten before the start, went 11/1 on betfair. 7.20 Sandown I've backed Magnitude on it's last two starts and is worth taking a small chance with here back on easy ground. Won FTO on G/S in a race that has worked out ok. LTO is best ignored, drifted badly before the race and was hampered during it. Another that has shown best form on an easy surface is Eastern Hills and he could be overpriced. I won't be going beserk but will stake 80/20 in favour of Magnitude at 4.3 and 15.5 respectively.

[Winner4Me]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 Ok here mine Cant post 7.20 as its too late. would have been Topazes. 7.50 Carlitos Spirit, purely because of form and the jockey 6-1 taken 8.25 Eqbaal (trainer & jockey combo) 5-4 taken :hope

[fintron]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 7.20 Happy to ignore Topazes with the unreliable Spencer on board and he's up in class anyway. Amylee should have each-way claims at 9/2. Clive Cox's filly has been running respectably in defeat and should get off the mark sooner or later. She ran a decent enough race on soft on her debut so ground shouldn't be a problem. 7/1 7.50 Carlito's Spirit has been in good heart, winning his last two well, including on soft ground at Nottingham. Alan Munro's mount has also posted some good top speed ratings on his last two runs. 6/1 8.25 Stoute's colt Kensington Oval looks to have a chance on breeding (by Sadler's wells, brother to Ask) and Moore is top class in the saddle, but the safe option may be Eqbaal who at least has previous racecourse experience. Was well backed at Newbury last time out and was a 0.75 length second after Spencer stole the win late on. Hopfully can gain compensation here. 13/10 8.55 Blacktoft was unlucky in a blanket finish here the other week. Ryan Moore again takes the ride on similar going to last time. Up in trip from that last run but has won over 10f earlier in career. 6/1 :hope

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06

Bah, I picked the wrong one, but a small profit none the less. I wouldn't have played though if I couldn't back all four. Was sure I'd have the winner, just stake a bit on the greedy side. Zowington was beaten before the start, went 11/1 on betfair. 7.20 Sandown I've backed Magnitude on it's last two starts and is worth taking a small chance with here back on easy ground. Won FTO on G/S in a race that has worked out ok. LTO is best ignored, drifted badly before the race and was hampered during it. Another that has shown best form on an easy surface is Eastern Hills and he could be overpriced. I won't be going beserk but will stake 80/20 in favour of Magnitude at 4.3 and 15.5 respectively.

:nana 15.5 Eastern Hills

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 7.50 Sandown (Class 3) I've backed Zero Cool as a saving bet the last twice and I said last time that he'd have to show a bit on course for his new yard before I backed him more confidently (well handicapped on last year's form for John Gosden). Well he ran his best race for Gary Moore LTO behind the good thing Bushman here last week, and he could be winning soon. I've backed Twilight Star in the same way LTO and he finished just behind Zero Cool - looks inconsistent but has shown enough to suggest he can win a race and is a big price here. Russian Epic is a horse I've followed for some time. He was a frustrating sort and was gelded for this season. He ran poorly FTO this year and I worried that the operation had done nothing to improve his head. I decided to give him another chance back on turf LTO when backing him and Ansells Pride. He ran a fine race, close up 4th, it was a most encouraging run. I'm certain he'll start fulfilling his potential very soon. His best form last year was on easier surfaces so his run LTO looks even better. I think he is a certainty off his mark, if he wants to win - simple as. Overturn is an unknown quantity after a long lay-off. Russian Epic 70% of stake 5.5 betfair Zero Cool 20% of stake 8.2 betfair Twilight Star 10% of stake 29 betfair

[fintron]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06

Bah, I picked the wrong one, but a small profit none the less. I wouldn't have played though if I couldn't back all four. Was sure I'd have the winner, just stake a bit on the greedy side. Zowington was beaten before the start, went 11/1 on betfair. 7.20 Sandown I've backed Magnitude on it's last two starts and is worth taking a small chance with here back on easy ground. Won FTO on G/S in a race that has worked out ok. LTO is best ignored, drifted badly before the race and was hampered during it. Another that has shown best form on an easy surface is Eastern Hills and he could be overpriced. I won't be going beserk but will stake 80/20 in favour of Magnitude at 4.3 and 15.5 respectively.

good call on Eastern Hills :ok

[TheRat]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 Cheers for the place on Glasshoughton Bowles and nice Billy with Eastern Hills Was on it!!!

[bowles10]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06

6.45 5f sprint Glasshoughton EW - cant see it out of 1st 3.

duly obliged in 3rd, ran a good race but never got to the leader! I knew nothing would come from behind as there was obvious pace in the race & the draw counts double on soft! Pity about the price, i was hoping for at least 6/1.

[bowles10]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 :claptwlight star billy!! you got 29's!!

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 Cheers bowles, and fin and rat (re Eastern Hills). 3 from 3 tonight - very happy. :nana bowles you were right about the sprint, the hold ups were NR's basically. I had two up with the pace and two hold uppers to play safe in it. Cheers.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 8.55 - Blacktoft E/W Just a small wager on the last here. I see this one finished in a four-way photo lto and many horses around franked the form. Ryan Moore on top again. Worth an e/w punt at 11/2 :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 Think the ex-Godolphin horse Abydos is the most interesting in the last. Been given a chance off 80 but new connections haven't put the cheekpieces on here (wore them when he won LTO). With Barnley Curley so it's anyone's guess really. Will play very small on him here but will be watching with an eye for the future - perhaps when the pieces go back on?

[bowles10]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06

8.55 - Blacktoft E/W Just a small wager on the last here. I see this one finished in a four-way photo lto and many horses around franked the form. Ryan Moore on top again. Worth an e/w punt at 11/2 :ok

i know you make it an EW bet, however i make it a win bet, just took 11/2 Bet365 BOG about this animal which came late in the race LTO here at sandown under Ryan Moore. Trainer normally has a winner here & worth following. if it gets more into the race early & much handier position, think Ryan can get it home.

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 8 runners - 8.4 bar one on betfair, strange little race.

[bowles10]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06

Cheers bowles, and fin and rat (re Eastern Hills). 3 from 3 tonight - very happy. :nana bowles you were right about the sprint, the hold ups were NR's basically. I had two up with the pace and two hold uppers to play safe in it. Cheers.

thanks billy, i know the sprints at sandown fairly well as it was my local track. Highland Warrior will go into the notebook coming across from stall 2 to get 2nd with the other 3 places high numbers. Keep up the good work. I havent had a winner for 5 days!! Keep hitting the post!

[billy the punter]

Re: Sandown Thurs 05/06 It happens mate but it won't be long before it turns I'm sure. I had Highland Warrior in my notebook for a couple of week earlier in the season, not sure how genuine he is. Thought Dirriculous ran well from a poor draw and he really does want 6f - his winning may not have come to an end. As for the 8.55, Curley's is now 17 on betfair so surely cannot win - worth keeping an eye on though. Caused all sorts of problems for Queally so far.