York - Thursday 15th May

[fintron]

Won't be on here tomorrow so putting up my research for York now... 1.40 <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

This one looks to be a wide open race to open the card and quite a few have a decent chance. Bertoliver is the forecast favourite after beating several of these at Chester earlier this month (Green Park a close second, Strike up the Band and Tournedos further back). He has previously won over this trip and will go on the ground, however, there is the issue of a penalty to contend with here and the handicapper has put him up 8 lbs from that win. Conquest (who has previous course form here) fared well on his reappearance at Lingfield, and landed a bit of a gamble being backed into 4/1 from 7’s. However, he has disappointed on two turf runs. Admittedly, the last of those was a Group 3 at Newmarket, he drops in grade and has won off a 2 lb higher mark previously, but would have liked to have seen a bit more in those races to back him here.

River Falcon is a course and distance winner and although that CD win came with a bit of cut in the ground he has placed numerous times on firmer ground and so the going is unlikely to be a problem here. The trip seems fine but his form seems patchy so despite coming close at Doncaster recently (btn 1.25l) I’m going to pass over this one too. Northern Empire has been in good form in the all-weather of late and has run well on firm ground at the start of his career. However, he is yet to prove himself off a mark this high on turf.

The one I’ll be backing in this opener is thus Aegean Dancer. A quick glance at the formline shows he finished 4^th at Southwell, but looking closer reveals he was only beaten by 1.44 lengths. That run came returning from a break so he is entitled to have come on for that run. Bryan Smart’s horse progressed quite well last season, ending the campaign on a 10 lb higher turf mark and along the way recorded numerous big price victories. He is running off the same mark as last time out here, and could go close now he’s been freshened up over what appears to be an ideal trip.

2.10

After justifying favourism on her debut for Michael Stoute Promising Lead was thrown into pattern races thereafter. She was a neck second behind Silver Pivotal here on her second career run but gained compensation later last year landing a listed race at Salisbury. Her second in a group 1 at Longchamp when last seen looks rock solid form given the likes of Finsceal Beo and Light Shift were behind, and thus you can see why she heads the market here, with proven ability over the trip and on the ground. With Promising Lead expected to be short priced I will probably look for another horse for a straight forecast for a bit of value. Flying Clarets goes well over course and disrance with form figures of 1321, however, those have been when contesting handicaps and she takes a leap in class contesting a fillies Group 3 here. In her favour though, she handles the ground and the trip is ideal. She will also be fresher than some of these after two runs this season. Elsewhere in the field Ronaldsay had Sell Out behind in a listed race at Newmarket at the end of last season, however, Richard Hannon’s horse disappointed on his re-appearance at Ripon. Sell Out is making her seasonal debut and she seems to prefer a bit of cut in the ground. 2.40

Twice Over heads the market for this after winning a Group 3 recently at Newmarket. That win maintained his 100 % record from three career runs and he has shown in that time he stays the distance. He ousted the favourite Raven’s Pass last time out and will be looking to make it two from two under Ted Durcan. It is impossible to write off all the others in the field though. Centennial picked up a Group 3 win at Sandown last month and stayed on well under pressure to score that day. He will see out the trip and has won twice before on firm ground. There could be plenty more to come from him too after he finished 3^rd behind Raven’s pass on his debut before picking up a couple of lower class races before coming 2^nd in a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud. McCartney makes his debut for Godolphin after being bought out of Mark Johnston’s yard. He won listed and group 2 races for the Middleham trainer and so can’t be written off totally for this. He blotted his copybook with a 7^th placed finish when last seen but that came in the Dewhurst against some top opposition. Hard to split there but at the price McCartney (12/1) makes the most appeal.

3.10

Lang Shining looks to be the one to be on over a couple of course and distance winners in Blythe Knight and New Seeker. Lang Shining is the mount of Ryan Moore so must be respected. He’s won twice over a mile before and has placed on good/firm before. He will also be fresh having won recently at Newbury, just edging out Benandonner by a neck.

Blythe Knight is a previous course and distance winner at this level but has failed to build on the promise of a 1.25l second in the Lincoln on his turf re-appearance this season. Also, the majority of his wins have come on soft ground so I’m passing over it because of the going too. New Seeker is also a course and distance winner and has shown on multiple occasions an ability to win on firm ground. He is making his seasonal debut although he did win returning from a break last season. He’s proven at listed race level but others appeal more. Mia’s Boy has been impressive in lower level handicaps and although he has been progressing nicely he is stepping up from class 3 racing here. His winning has been done on either the all-weather or softish ground though, and he has finished 6^th the two times it has raced on good/firm.

3.45

Benandonner has returned in great form this season, with placed efforts in the Spring Mile at Doncaster and then at Newbury, either side of a fibresand win at Southwell. The ground and trip are ideal and he drops in class here. He must prove himself off a career high mark though. Charlie Farnsbarns has impressed since being stepped up to a mile – was only 1.25 lengths behind Authorized in the Racing Post trophy and was denied by only a neck by Massive when last seen. He’s won on firm and drops in grade here. Docofthebay progressed massively for Jamie Osbourne last season and will not mind fast ground one bit. He’s won over a mile and was only 1.5 lengths behind the Illies over course and distance last season. He’s returning from a break but was beaten by only a head on his season re-appearance last season.

4.20

Little form to go by here so we are left to go by trainer stats and breeding. The three trainers in this race with the best records with 2 year olds are Noseda, O’Neill and Ryan. Noseda – 4 wins from 21 runners (19 %), profit to £1 stakes of £24.50. Ryan 9/54, 17 %, +£8.50. O’Neill 4/10, 40 %, £28.25. However, of those three, Noseda’s horse, Awinnersgame, makes the most appeal on breeding as it is a half-brother to numerous winners over this trip.

4.55

Accordello fared well when travelling the short distance to Redcar for Keith Reverley last time out. She ran on in the final furlong and was only denied by a neck. However, she is up 6 lb for that run here and she may prefer softer ground perhaps. The one I’m on here will be Bugsy’s Boy, who has been in great form this year winning a few all-weather handicaps and then keeping on well on soft ground at Pontefract to win on his turf debut for the season too. He was sent off the favourite at Bath last time out but caught flat footed in the final furlong. However, the presence of Tolley Dean in the saddle tomorrow and a lower rating means he races off a 4 lb lower mark tomorrow so hopefully he can gain compensation. :hope:hope:hope

[billy the punter]

Re: York - Thursday 15th May 1.40 York (Class 2) I've never liked horses drawn very high at York in sprints. They usually come down the middle and horses drawn low to middle tend to fair better. When they come the centre route I don't like to be wide on either side. I'd be looking for a draw of 2-11 ideally, something like that. From the five big sprint handicaps (16 runners+) at York last season; 5 of the 20 (25%) placed horses were drawn 12 or higher (one of those was drawn 13 of 20 so not a high draw). 15 of the 20 (75%) placed horses were drawn 2-11. I estimated the 2-11 ideal draw before working out the above, based on last year's results I'd have to stick with that idea. As always, the position of the pace is important with regards to where the best draw is likely to be. This is how today's runners usually run: stall 1 varies 2 up with pace 3 held up 4 front runner 5 up with pace 6 held up 7 tracked leader/held up 8 mid div/held up 9 held up 10 front runner 11 up with pace 12 held up 13 up with pace 14 held up 15 up with pace The two 'high draw' horses (Tabaret/Fantasy Explorer) that run up with the pace have failed to get to the front rank on their recent runs. There is guaranteed to be pace low to middle so still predict that a 2-11 draw would be a bonus. In conclusion, unlike the sprint last week at Chester, the draw info should be used as a guide only here and what is seen as a good draw should be seen as a bonus only - not a reason to back/oppose. ---- Bertoliver did me proud last week when I backed him at a big price at Chester, he runs here off a 4lb higher mark. Although last week's race suited him it wasn't the only reason why I backed him. He had some real decent form last season (his Sandwon June win in particular) and is an interesting handicapper for this season. McEvoy takes the mount back from Robinson and is 2/4 on him. I think York will suit and is sure to make another bold front running bid. The booking of Johnny Murtagh on Fydor takes the eye (1/2 with older horses for the yard over five seasons) but he is so hard to win with. It's been two years since his last win but he is well weighted with a few fancied rivals. Can't rule out although he is probably a point or two underpriced due to the jockey booking. Bond City has slipped to a fair mark and is very well handicapped on old form, however has disappointed a little IMO this season. Sure to run a race though, and looks nailed on for a top 4/5 finish. Special Day ran well in big fields last season but would need to show a little bit more this season before I back him. Fantasy Explorer is well handicapped on form before his injury. Was backed from 40s to 16s for his comeback and is sure to strip fitter for that run. Apparently he has fully recovered from the injury sustained at Epsom (injured in the same race as my horse was - that's Epsom for you) and will love the ground. High draw but Ryan Moore booked and a decent enough price. Aegean Dancer finally got the hang of things late in his 3yo season and last season showed formlines of 1381024271. 30% winning S/R, 60% placed S/R and only the one poor run (Haydock in Aug). He is best at 5f on a sound surface and from his 17 career runs at the min trip he has been placed 11 times (65%), and finished in the first five home 88% of the time. He ran a cracker on his last start on New Year's Day at Southwell, beaten just over a length on a surface that didn't suit. Not run for 135 but seems best when fresh with form lines showing 211 when given a break this long. Must go close. The two main bets are drawn 5 (Aegean Dancer) and 10 (Bertoliver). Aegean Dancer 50% of stake 10 betfair (9/1 currently with a couple of firms) Bertoliver 25% of stake 6.2 betfair Fyodor 10% of stake 11 betair Fantasy Explorer 15% of stake 14 betfair