Wolverhampton - Tuesday 29/04/08

[billy the punter]

9.05 Wolverhampton I was very sweet on Gold Prospect LTO and wrote this:

I backed Gold Prospect as a saver in the Rosebery but I think he needed the run. I backed him on his two A/W starts last year and he ran well to finish 2nd (should've won) and 1st. He has disappointed four times on the turf and I think he may prefer the dirt. The race he finished 2nd in above was his handicap debut, he would've won that day with a better ride. He was off 77 that day and being as he was unlucky AND won since, you could say he is pretty well in here off just 79. His drop in the handicap is due to his poor turf runs, if I'm right about him prefering the dirt then he could be a snip. Jamie Spencer has a 35% S/R for the yard on the A/W. Only negative is the trip, he wants further ideally and there is unlikely to be much pace on. I'm hoping he has the class to overcome this.

He won despite getting left around three lengths at the start. All the above still applies, I still believe he is at home on the A/W, 2/2 here. He only went up 4lb for that win so is still fairly handicapped in my opinion. Jamie is now 36% for Bell on the A/W and it will be interesting if he does take this mount (as declared) as it is his only mount of the evening. Curzon Prince ran a cracker LTO and is 432 on the A/W, he was only beaten a length on the 4th and clearly goes well on dirt. The trainer had a winner yesterday and is my idea of the danger, although it's not certain that this is his trip. Although Princess Cocoa was beaten in a claimer LTO she is very geniune. If I discount her three runs on easy ground (which she hates). She has made the frame on 88% of her races. 14 placed or better efforts from 16 starts. The two unplaced runs were 5/16 and 4/7 (over a too far 11f). She cost under 7k - owners dream. Ok, she hasn't won that much prize money for her consistency but clearly gives her all every time she is on the course. Closely weighted with Curzon Prince. I'm tempted to take the 9/4 on offer now on Gold Prospect as he has been well backed when victorious, although this is a competitive little race. I will go in for half the money at the price. Gold Prospect 100% of stake 3.25 betfair

[fintron]

Re: Wolverhampton - Tuesday 29/04/08 7.35 Wolv Xpress Maite heads the market at 11/10 and was unstoppable LTO when romping to a 6 length win to add to its victory, also at Southwell, earlier this month. He won over CD twice in January too, so there are no concerns regarding its course form. However, the sticking point could be the 6 lb penalty it has been dealt today. For that reason I am taking the fav on with Flying Bantam. This may sound very daft but I always back this horse simply because of its name (I'm a Bradford City fan). It is no world beater admittedly, but it doesn't have to be to take the class of races it contests. Regardless of its name, I would say Richard Fahey's horse has decent claims on the basis of its form. It has won at Wolverhampton before, albeit over 6f, but showed LTO at Beverley that it has the ability to win over 7f. On that day Flying Bantam had Xpress Maite back in third even though it gave 5 lbs to his rival. Today Flying Bantam is 8 lbs better off than his rival now Xpress Maite has been given a penalty. The form of that Beverley win has worked out well. Xpress Maite's form has been mentioned above and as you would expect, he is now rated 10 lb higher than when these two horses last met. A couple of the other horses in and around the places that day have continued to progress also though. Motafarred (2nd) went on to score twice afterwards and its rating went up 13 lbs between that day and when it was last seen. Sam's Secret (4th) went onto score a hat-trick after the Beverley race and was rated 78 when last seen at Yarmouth. Perhaps I am reading too much into one race in order to justify backing this horse? I have stung quite a few times over the past few days backing horses carrying penalties though, so I thought I'd look elsewhere today. Also, when I repeatedly backed Flying Bantam last season the real nemesis to it seemed to be Kabis Amigos. There is no sign of Dandy Nicholls' horse today, so that is another reason why I'm backing Flying Bantam. Flying Bantam did once win off 85 back in 2005 but it regressed a little since and it will have to build on its form last season to take this off 70 (last win off 65). It also has fitness to prove on its season reappearance. At 5/1 William Hill, I'm happy to take the EW.