AFL Rd. 6.

[TazaD]

Tough week ahead really, imo... Essendon midfield has been pummelled since rd. 1. They allow the second most I50's (58) behind Melbourne (59)...next worst Kangaroos @ 52... The loss of Lucas is starting to show up forward too...just one game they've converted at better than 2.00...a rediculous 1.46 v. Carlton... ...having said that, Collingwood have only stopped two teams that can't score in Richmond and Freo...Bris, Carl and Kangas have all scored freely...and their forward lie has dried right up. Collingwood numbers are remarkably similar to St. Kilda's...so I guess it sets up a lot like last week...Collingwood get a HEAP more of the ball forward, and the Bombers try to stay in it with good efficiency and conversion. Collingwood really did pump Ess. twice last year (but for some inaccurate kicking) and statistically the gap has widened in just about every area! Was hoping for closer to -10ish...16 is probably a bit rich... You'd think Collingwood, but of course all the while hoping not... Not sure Geelong are going as well as they seem either...Ablett's lone 10 minute hand v. Sydney...the same I50's and just 2 more shots v. Saints...only won by 30 v. Melbourne and 9 @ Port... Freo just can't score tho...second worst conversion to WC...massive value on them to be lowest socring team @ 7.00. Freo haven't scored 100 in 6 games @ 83...Geelong not allowed 100 in 8 games @ 79...last 3 meetings (2 @ Subi) Freo have scored 72, 69 and 52. Maybe some rain about in Melbourne over the weekend, but who challenges? Even WC will score v. Doggies...Melbourne scoring better in what should be a free flowing game in Brisbane...Carlton a chance (but I reckon I'll be on an under in that one anyway)... Carlton/Adelaide...under? :D ...Well, surprisingly, Carlton are really struggling to score! Some remarkably straight kicking has inflated their scoring big time. Only av. 26 shots per game @ 2.02... ...but Adelaide midfield has disappeared last 3 weeks, getting just 41, 42 and 41 I50's...They are scoring well when it gets there, but an improved Carlton mid and D could still make it tough. I think we all might have been a little high on the Crows...just one good win v. a terribble WC to their name...but form and Carlton don't mix either. Odds about right...hopefully total won't be. Dogs will thump WC. Have been fav's just once in their last 10 meetings, won by 51 @ Optus in 2002. Dogs had 5 more I50's and 5 more shots v. a surprisingly good Tigers...not to mention the Richo "mark" and subsequent 12 point turnaround...With 4.10 in the first quarter the game should have been over anyway. WC's 2 trips away have been losses by 62 @ Sydney and 72 @ Adelaide...nothing I've seen suggests that the Crows are much better than the Dogs. Dogs have most I50's for the season...have had the most shots on goal, against the team that has had the least shots, but leaks like a seive (1.83). Dogs -25.5 happily. How are Port fav's here? I know Ash said last week they were playing well but losing...I tend to disagree...they're just losing! :lol Even v. the Eagles they nearly melted down... They haven't had 50 I50's yet in a game this season, they have the second worst D to Freo @ 1.66, so I'm not sure how they can be favoured over anyone atm! Saints much better last 2 weeks...same I50's and just less shots v. Geelong...+17 I50's and +16 shots v. Ess last week...they look a LOT better with Charlie Gardiner in for Gehrig, and are playing well enough defensively allowing just 24 shots per game. They might give up a few more here, 'cause Port are scoing alright, but just can't stop anyone down the other end. Should be a high scorer...will be looking at the over...but definately taking +9.5 for the Saints.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Centrebet are betting on Round-17 for those looking to get on.

1. HAWTHORN	2.70
2. GEELONG	1.45

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6.

Friday, April 25
Collingwood v Essendon	MCG (D)	-15.5	1.55	Turf	2.67	Pinnacle	102.0%
Fremantle v Geelong	Subiaco (N)	+29.5	5.2	Portland	1.2	Pinnacle	102.6%
Saturday, April 26
Carlton v Adelaide	MCG (D)	+6.5	2.2	Pinnacle	1.76	Pinnacle	102.3%
W Bulldogs v West Coast	Telstra D (N)	-25.5	1.26	Norm Short	4.35	Pinnacle	102.4%
Port Adelaide v St Kilda	AAMI (N)	-9.5	1.68	Pinnacle	2.34	Pinnacle	102.3%
Sunday, April 27
Brisbane v Melbourne	Gabba (E)	-44.5	1.11	Pinnacle	8	Global	102.6%
Kangaroos v Sydney	Telstra D (D)		2.05	Centrebet	1.9	Sportingbet	101.4%
Hawthorn v Richmond	MCG (T)	-26.5	1.24	Pinnacle	4.6	Pinnacle	102.4%

Tempo megalomaniacs Port again gave it up (led 10 goals) only it's a lot harder to get beaten by West Coast than for Port to beat themselves (and that's saying something!;)). I see the odds as about right on this one. King out is a big loss and you don't really want that against Port. Saints have a bit to prove still IMO. They were very up focus last week against a down focus Essendon, IMO. T think a win under the belt will help Port but, yeah, their tendency to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is a worry. Bit of rain forecast? -28.5 Geelong could be enough for me. I like the price and 'cap on Richmond.

[Twinky99]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. can someone explain why saints odds are so high? this is weird, i may just take saints+11.5 then.. im thinking of adelaide to win too whose odds are really decent. collingwood to beat essendon around 1.5 seems decent too. i may go for this treble, what do you guys think?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. I personally dislike multi bets...but that's up to you. It (kinda!) worked for you last week! :D I like the Saints...will be on the spread for sure... ...not convinced on either of the others tho. Collingwood should win, but 1.50 is skinny, and I think Carlton/Crows is a toss-up, esp. at the MCG.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. A quick note, before you take the Saints... ...Riewoldt left training last night "clutching his buttock"!...returned for 15 minutes before heading off for good. Club saying just tightness and he'll play...but... :unsure

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Also some pretty strong rumours around that Didak (and possibly even Swan) will be out for the Pies. Wellingham to debut, along with possibly another late in (Bryan and Cox emergencies)...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Thanks for that mail Taza:ok. Looks like you've stolen my bet though :@. Twinky99, :welcomeand I thought I explained some of my views on Port/Saints :D. Stay away from the multis though. In most cases it's the bookies way of forcing punters to take crap prices, although you could get around that by juggling funds and running the proceeds into each game, seeing as they are scheduled at different times - mere winners are worthless in the long run. Price is the only way to success. Personally I almost make Carlton a bet (I have them about a 2.05 chance). Ash. :hope

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. With changes imminent and others known to be carrying injuries, a real good opportunity to sneak some value on the Anzac Medal. The bookmakers still have Alwyn Davey high up in these all in markets, not to mention that Didak and Swan are two of the favorites (no dog lick'n the face but up late framing this). The first four are my main bets and small plays on the last three.

			My	Books
25-Apr-08	Anzac Medal	Cloke, Travis	19	45	Hurley
25-Apr-08	Anzac Medal	McPhee, Adam	19	41	Centrebet
25-Apr-08	Anzac Medal	Thomas, Dale	14	21	Canbet
25-Apr-08	Anzac Medal	O'Brien, Harry	44	81	IAS
25-Apr-08	Anzac Medal	Medhurst, Paul	20	28	Norm Short
25-Apr-08	Anzac Medal	Reimers, Kyle	40	60	Norm Short
25-Apr-08	Anzac Medal	Goldsack, Tyson	65	101	Lasseters

[Twinky99]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. thanks Tazad and Ash, yeah i know, multis are dangerous but my big bets usually go to singles anyways. i guess i'll wait for more write-ups from you experts before making a bet, still waiting for views from burntua crisp too :D

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. There are plenty of injury concerns leading into the Anzac game at the MCG. All will be revealed soon enough, but whoever Collingwood are forced to leave out, it's hard to see them being beaten. The loss of Davey for Essendon will be a huge void to fill, not to mention missing Lucas and McVeigh. Even if Collingwood lose Rocca or Swan, there evenness across the board will get them home comfortably. Looking at the medal I'd be looking at Pendlebury, Lockyer and Cloke. The Dockers have been belted twice by the Cats in their last 2 visits and another win looks on the cards for Geelong. Their midfield should cut the Dockers to ribbons with Stokes, Johnson and Chapman to cause all sort of mayhem up forward. Dockers need a competitive performance to keep the pressure of Harvey, who is yet to prove he can decent coach. Geelong to win but it wont be a blowout. If the Crows are to entertain thoughts of a top 4 finish, they can't afford to drop games like this. They'll need to improve on last weeks effort when they nearly let the Dockers over run them. Knights back into the team is a great inclusion and boosts their midfield. The Blues did what they had to last week, but were far from impressive. Their forwards have a tough task to combat Adelaide's defence with Johncock and McLeod easily running the loose ball out. The Crows should be too strong for Carlton. Port are finding it hard to play four quarters and they'll need to so to beat the Saints. I'm surprised Gehrig wasn't recalled against a below standard Port defence. It should be a close game like it typically is, but I fancy Port at home. The Bulldogs just seem to be off a little at the moment struggling against a couple of ordinary sides in the last fortnight. Fortunately, they face another struggler tomorrow night with the Eagles going horribly. It's just impossible to see the Eagles kick a big score to match what the Bulldogs will kick. Too many passengers for the Eagles at the moment. Players missing from best 22's. 2- Port Adelaide. 3- Collingwood, Geelong. 4- Adelaide, W.Bulldogs. 5- Essendon, Carlton, St.Kilda. 6- Fremantle, West Coast. Predictor. Collingwood by 18, Geelong by 34, Adelaide by 3, W.Bulldogs by 26, St.Kilda by 1. Suggested Bets. Collingwood MARGIN (1-39) Adelaide WIN. Good luck to you all.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Medhurst won't get it but had Pendlebury a 20.00 shot but would have made him equal fave with Thomas only I thought Ess would surely have to tag him (even though they don't do that) and what do they do ... put Johns on him - thanks!! He was home mid way through second quarter IMO. Odds of 26.00!!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. I'd be furious if I were on him :eek. If they were going to give it on junk time footy they could at least have picked Cloke :tongue2 :\. Only broke even on Medhurst but Cloke would have been a total clean out. Pendlebury 33 & 7 tackles (most in game), no frees against and sat on pine most of LQ. Medhurst 17 & 5 tackles, six goals. He's flown under the radar again. Be interesting what his Brownlow odds will be Monday. Have I said yet what a total wankling this match is each year? The media talking it up to the point I heard it implied it was bigger than GF day is an insult to the game :puke. I find it the most overrated boring game of the year. Ash. :D

[Twinky99]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. wow, its like the 2nd quarter and geelong is getting thumped by freo 30-8

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. It most certainly is a circle jerk that's for sure. Turned on the telly at 2.15 expecting to have missed a minute or so, only to be told the game is "about 25 minutes away"...wtf?? Insult both ways really...to the GF, to the other clubs...but also to the real hero's of te day...sick to death of the footy -> war analagies each year (obviously getting more and more sickening as they try to out-do the year before)...and good lord am I sick of the work "mateship"! fwiw, I thought Medhurst was the most influencial man on the ground. Gotta love losing a lowest score just two games in (Freo)...I really wish I could have been in the same room as you last night Ash :unsure... ...8+ mins left in the second, a Docker marks the ball on HB flank, and gives the signal of impending doom...the holding of the ball above the head... ...sure enough after 2 minutes of fannying about, Farmer pokes one straight to Hunt, rebound goal. Next Freo kick even I think Johnson kicks one directly across the back of the square to no-one...Cats swoop...suddenly 6 goals in 4 minutes and they're 2 points down instead of 6 or 7 goals. You seriously have to laugh now...Coaches MUST be seeing this happen... You've just got to wonder... Just taken Carlton/Crows under 195.5. :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Did Jaryd Allen play for Casey? Wasn't in the goals or the best in the Age this morning. Seeing as Roo is doubtful, I thought that maybe they're keeping him up their sleeve just in case. Apparently Allen and Geary didn't play and have both flown over to Adelaide...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Don't know on that one Taza. Took 2.95 Freo at quarter time and they had Geel 100% off there game and not looking like getting into it and would definetly gone in 50-points up and just couldn't believe it (even started squinting at tele because thought surely what looked like 8:45 must be 2:45 or less or something). I just ended up LMAO as a certain winfull was set alight in front. No commentators anywhere have clicked, just talking about Cat's great fight back and stuff. Not your fault Pav - what player.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Don't know about the under or Medhurst? I can't believe the under snuck home after the (and I've had a couple of brews, so I tend to exagerate...)...but THE worst decision in football history. Giving the Crows another kick from the goal line after Waite punched the ball into the crowd. Free kick? Maybe...wouldn't have argued...but from the centre surely!!! Razor Ray...another face making decision...Well done champ. :ok:eyes

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Yeah, the rule should always be another kick from the centre.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 6.

Cats swoop...suddenly 6 goals in 4 minutes and they're 2 points down instead of 6 or 7 goals. You seriously have to laugh now...Coaches MUST be seeing this happen... You've just got to wonder...

Thankfully the Rocket hasn't hasn't caught onto the new modern game yet - somehow I think he knows. :ok

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Well done Taza for being on the right side of the game total in today's game. I managed to get on myself and multied into the Adelaide line and all was well until Adelaide got those double whammy goals. The last 5 minutes was hard to sit through, but we got the result in the end. It's been an interesting round so far, with the poor teams starting to get left behind. Heart goes out to the Dockers who did everything right against the Cats but win. The last 10 minutes of the 2nd quarter was unexplainable by the Dockers and eventually cost them the match. Dockers aren't out of it yet, but need to beat Melbourne next week to get back in the race. The Eagles are losing troops at a rapid rate and might put the cue in the rack shortly. They are miserable away from home now and are carrying way too many passengers. Their game style now doesn't suit the players in that team now. The Dogs are disposing of the poor teams easily and now have a stranglehold on a finals berth. Brisbane were superb last week without winning and will belt Melbourne. Bradshaw and Brown will have big days and the Lions midfield should cut Melbourne up. The Hawks will be tested by the Tigers who are using their pace to put sides off. They've been tagging effectively lately, and I'd expect Mitchell and Bateman to have some close attention. Wet conditions are expected and it should be a good contest, but I think the Hawks will sneak home. The Kangaroos returned to their best last week and if they can reproduce that form, they should be able to handle the Swans. Scoring power is a concern for the Swans with Hall missing and O'Loughlin and Davis struggling for form. Players missing from best 22's. 1- Hawthorn 3- North Melb. 4- Sydney 5- Brisbane, Melbourne, Richmond. Predictor. Brisbane by 34, Sydney by 6, Hawthorn by 26. Suggested Bet. North Melbourne WIN.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Yeah thanks BC...was certainly hairy late... Keeping a pretty close eye on the Melbourne weather...hail forecast even!...but no rain abuot just yet by the looks. Hawthorn should be way too good for the Tiges... Hawks D looks bad (1.79)...but two bad games have been both on the road. 3 home games (inc. a Tassie game strangely enough) they've allowed a shot every 2.30, 2.00, 2.10. Just don't think they can put up much of a score against a Hawthorn team allowing just 43 I50's. Hawks have best forward conversion in the AFL (1.62) and av. over 32 shots per game...27 is their least! Hawks have won last 2 meetings by 43 and 41...absolutely belted them last year with 66-45 I50's. Tigers were lucky last week, beat a crappy Freo and the Carlton margin flattered them big time...lost by 41 and 44 to two decent teams in Kangaroos and Pies. Hawthorn beat Kangas by just 16, but Kangas kicked straight...Tigers are worse in midfield and defense is way worse. So, pending weather...hoping to find a Hawthorn -23.5 to jump on. Plenty of people agreeing with you BC...Kangas into favs.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Happy I didn't find that -23.5...would have broken just about everything in the house after that!! Cannot...CAN NOT wait to see the odds for next week... ...yes, that probaby makes me an addict...but I can just about guarentee the Tigers will be so over-blown it will be messy! Stiff on the Kanga's BC...stiff, but lucky at the same time. Probably should't have lost from where they were... ...having said that, Kirk's "goal" got punched forward into the back of the post...hmmm...touched? Think not. Why aven't we all just been going against Melbourne all year? Would have been 5-1...5-0 probably given the -70 odd as Geelong... :wall