Newbury 19/4/08

[fintron]

2.50 - The one which jumped out at me here was Benandonner and I see Bowles has already tipped this one up on his own thread. Fahey's horse has been in good form since returning from a break, scoring a 2nd in the Spring Mile on his reappearance, only to add a win to his name just over a week later when it won over 8f at Southwell. It is up 8lbs from its turf victory but the presence of a claimer on Saturday negates that as McHugh claims the 7 lb. Its form this year prove both the trip and ground are ideal too. 4.00 - I'm on Beacon Lodge here, who is a CD winner and is looking to make it 3/3 at this course. The main reason I like this one is that is beat Stimulation in a Group 3 on its last appearance, and we know Stimulation is a decent prospect after seeing him score at Newmarket earlier this week. Clive Cox may not be in the best of form without a win in the last 14 days but this goes on the ground and has previous form over 7f. Waiting until the morning to take a price but just as a guide, Benandonner is 12.0 on Betfair at the minute, Beacon Lodge is 8.4.

[bowles10]

Re: Newbury 19/4/08 Fintron, just hope Benandonner is ok with the softened ground, been raining this way for about last 3hours, stopped now though. I've taken a look at the record of the favourites at Newbury. The races covered are all flat races held at the track & also by month. I have also narrowed it to the distance & type of race.

Meeting / Time	Type	Fav win % Total	Fav win % Apr	Fav win/place% Total	Fav w/pl % Apr	Bet – Lay/Back	Rating – 1 is high	Result
Newbury	All	29.0	41.9	61.0	77.4
1.40	3yo Maiden	39.2	52.4	78.4	90.5	Back Win
2.15	Group 3 stakes	33.3	50.0	66.7	91.7	Back Place
2.50	Handicap 1m	8.0	0.00	52.0	50.0	Avoid fav
3.25	Group 3	33.3	50.0	66.7	91.7	Back Place
4.00	Group 3	33.3	50.0	66.7	91.7	Back Place
4.30	Handicap 2m	37.5	66.7	37.5	66.7	Back win
5.05	Handicap 1m 2f	26.9	33.3	46.2	66.7	No bet

You will note that the April stats are much better than the overall with 42% winning favs in April vs 29% overall. Looking at the races, the grp 3 contests today show a 50% SR in April & 33% overall, but the place is up at 91.7% in April, so i will be looking at a place on the fav. The best bets look to be the 1.40 & 4.30 races as even the overall % is above 35% which is a good marker. The 2.50 shows a shocking record for the fav's & i will be expecting it out of the frame as well. not sure how people use these stats, however I do follow fav's on the flat & will try to spot the decent prices amongst the races. Recommended bets 1.40 Fav to win 10pts 4.30 Fav to win 10pts 2.15, 3.25 & 4.00 races - Favs to place (not sure who takes this bet, but i may have to take a guess on the 2.15 race as it looks to be Muthabarra & Confront in the other 2. 5pts place on all 3.