True Poker Odds!

[SteveO]

Would I be right in saying that the only time you can really be certain of the true odds is when you're playing HU. For instance playing heads up you have As2s in the hole the flop comes Ks 5s 3c. Assuming your opponent doesn't have a spade you know that you have a 36% of hitting your spade. Know let's say the same situation arises on 10 handed ring game. 20 cards have been dealt plus the flop = 23 cards which leaves 29 cards in the deck. Now it's not likely but all the spades in the deck could have been dealt out and you have zero chance of hitting your hand, or the the deck could still have all the spades still in it so you now have a greater chance of hitting your flush. So is it right conclude the only time you know the true odds is when you are playing H/U.

[glceud]

Re: True Poker Odds! The odds might vary a lot at full table from game to game but over a large enough sample they will average out at 36%. The only way you can decide if the odds are more or less than 36% is if lots of other players stay in the hand suggesting they are also drawing to the flush. Thus suggesting that you shoud be reraisng on a flush scare boad with top pair knowing that the chance of your opps hitting their flushes are greatly reduced. I'll come back to you in a 100,000 hands with the results of that theory!