Nottingham 15/04/08

[RussP]

2.50 Nottingham Looks like soft ground for this 5f handicap, Class 5, with currently 12 horses set to face the starter. From the head of the weights, I'm siding with one of only 2 CD winners in the field in the shape of: Desert Opal (RPF 9/1, currently 9.2 Betfair) - Let's completely dismiss its last 10 runs as they were all on the AW. Despite this, has run some decent races in defeat so we can assume that the horse retains its ability as well as coming here fit and well. On last seasons turf form, has a big chance today, races today off a mark of 70 which is pretty lenient and has the assistance of the excellent Philip Robinson, who has a win and a 2nd from just 3 rides on this horse. Stable is going pretty well too of late. Last term, this horse won 3 of its 7 turf starts, a good return. Won its turf reappearance off a mark of 63 and followed that up with a win off 67. Its 3rd off 72 was a super effort, especially in a Class 3 and followed that with a fast finishing 4th of 11 in a 0-85 Class 4 at Ascot under Jamie Spencer. Next came a win under todays jockey off 71 in this grade before 2 unplaced efforts off 75, where the handicap mark was beyond this horse. Dropped 5lb, it has shown it can win off this mark, will love the ground and, with a battle likely up front, can wear down its rivals late on. Likes the track with a win and a 2nd from 3 attempts whilst 5f is definitely its trip, 8 wins and 7 places from 28. Has a decent strike rate and, with conditions looking to be in its favour, looks a very nice EW price.

[billy the punter]

Re: Nottingham 15/04/08 2.50 You make a good case Russ, as ever. And I agree with you, Desert Opal has a real chance and is over priced. David Barker's sprinters have started the season well and his Dorn Dancer looks fairly solid also. She is close to a career low mark, although that has been the case for around a year now. In that time though she has been consistent, her only below par runs coming over a trip too far. Most of her running has been done over 6f and the RP seems to think that is her best trip. I'm not convinced of that however, she won at Chester and Musselburgh over 5f, and you need proper toe to do that. Half her wins have come over 5f in fact. Her life-time form over 5f on easy ground is as follows; 3/13 4/12 4/21 2/18 1/9 4/15 5/16 Not a bad run, and she always finishes up the field. Her win ratio isn't great but she'll run her usual race I would imagine. It's a tentative selection and based on the above I will be having a top heavy place bet on her. Think she is value to get a place, my bet shows evens if the win bet loses, it will be an added bonus if she does win. Dorn Dancer 80% of stake place 2.5 betfair 20% of stake win 7 betfair These are the current prices and I hope to get average out at around thsoe prices once the market gets livelier.